At the end of it I said the following…

As for Lewis, I’d still take him over Derek Holland anytime I absolutely had to win a game. He doesn’t have Holland’s ceiling, but he’s got a longer resume at this exact moment.

It seems that I am mostly alone in my assessment that Lewis > Holland, as a couple of people took me to task for it on Twitter.

@TeamBryantDFW and I had a lengthy (but civil) discussion about the merits of each pitcher. He contended that Holland had been great and that Lewis had been terrible. I felt that the opposite was true.

I decided to look up the stats on both to prove that one of us was right and what I found was…surprising.

It turns out that Lewis & Holland’s 2012 numbers are almost identical. One has made 8 appearances, allowed 24 runs (20 earned), struck out 40, and has a 3.78 ERA. The other has made 8 appearances, allowed 26 runs (21 earned), struck out 47, and has a 3.63 ERA.

The only major difference between the two is that Lewis has allowed 12 HRs and Holland only 3. It should also be noted that each has just 2 starts where they allowed more than 4 earned runs.

What have I learned from this? That public perception is far more important than actual results.

Everyone remembers Holland’s gem in Game 4 of last year’s World Series, but many forget that he was nearly DFA’d in July before he turned his season around. Lewis, on the other hand, takes flak for giving up a bunch of homeruns in May, but his April (5 starts, 1.93 ERA) is somehow overlooked.

Compare their postseason ERAs (Lewis: 2.34, Holland: 3.82) and it’s clear that the moustachioed lefty has some catching up to do. He has a big game to his credit, but he’s not yet a big-game pitcher.

One day he probably will be, but that day isn’t today. For now, I will take Colby Lewis.

Press on, Rangers fans.

(Leave a comment or find me on Twitter @BleacherSeatsTX. As always, thanks to Baseball Reference for their invaluable resources.)

In Continued Defense of the Cobra - Nolan Writin' - Nolan Writin' - A Texas Rangers Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

The top two teams in the American League West are facing off for two games. Who thought it would be Oakland facing the Rangers? (Photo: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE)

The Athletics have surprised quite a bit of people and have held their ground even with Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson not having pitched a game and Yoenis Cespedes now on the disabled list as well. Part of his absence has been filled by the unexpected rise of Brandon Inge who was picked up after getting released by the Detroit Tigers earlier this season.

Probable Starters:

Wednesday 7:05 CDT TEX: RHP Yu Darvish (5-1, 2.84 ERA/3.72 FIP) – OAK: LHP Tom Milone (5-2, 3.92 ERA/4.26 FIP)

Last week, there were two similar pitchers in Darvish and Wilson. Today, two very different pitchers. Darvish is probably as good as advertised right now, and the Rangers would love for him to go far in the game. Last time out, he only went 6 innings in the win, but was very good. Teams are playing tons of left-handed hitters against Yu. Part of that may be the fact that he’s sandwiched by the two lefties, but teams may sense an advantage. But there isn’t a real one.

vs LHH: 125 batters faced .257/.352/.339
vs RHH: 72 batters faced .183/.319/.367

*

In his season debut, Milone made history going 8 innings, picking up the win and not getting a single strikeout. His K/9 is now over 5 (still below average), but the biggest story for Milone is his home and away splits. In Oakland, pitch-to-contact pitchers thrive because of the foul territory in the park. At home? 0.39 ERA. On the road? 7.84. His BB/9 almost doubles on the road as well, possibly trying to hit his spots with more urgency.

Of note: In reality, there isn’t much difference between home Milone and road Milone. He has a 3.89 xFIP at home and a 4.55 xFIP on the road. (xFIP is FIP but taking into account the stadium and park effects.)

Thursday 1:05 CDT TEX: LHP Matt Harrison (4-2, 5.11 ERA/4.17 FIP) – OAK: RHP Brandon McCarthy (3-1, 3.38 ERA/2.86 FIP)

Harrison pitched well last time out, just not well enough for the win. Last time, I talked about his groundballs and last time out he only got three in 6 innings. The good news was he only allowed four hits. Harrison seems on the cusp of turning it around and maybe needs a little bit of luck to turn the corner.

Last year, most wrote off former Ranger McCarthy as a fluke. This year, he has almost the exact same numbers across the board. His success is sustainable. Expect a lot of groundballs in this one, which is perfect for a team trying to break out of a mini-slump.

Projected Athletics Lineup

1 2B Jemile Weeks (S)
2 SS Cliff Pennington (S)
3 RF Josh Reddick (S)
4 LF Seth Smith (L) vs RHP // Jonny Gomes vs LHP
5 DH Kila Ka’aihue (L)
6 3B Brandon Inge
7 1B Daric Barton (L)
8 C Kurt Suzuki
9 CF Collin Cowgill

(source MLBDepthCharts)

Hot/Cold (Last 7 Days)

Josh Reddick (Hot-OAK) .370/.469/.778 (10/27), 1 3B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5 BB
Seth Smith (Hot-OAK) .348/.464/.609 (8/23), 3 2B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 5 BB
Daric Barton (Cold-OAK) 2/21 (.095), 1 RBI, 3 BB, 9 K
Jonny Gomes (Cold-OAK) 3/20 (.150/.227/.150), 2 RBI, 2 BB, 7 K
Nelson Cruz (Hot-TEX) .391/.462/.739 (9/23), 2 HR, 7 RBI
Josh Hamilton (Hot-TEX) .385/.452/.885 (10/26), 1 2B, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 10 K
Michael Young (Cold-TEX) .167/.194/.233 (5/30), 2 2B, 1 RBI, 5 K
Adrian Beltre (Cold-TEX) .233/.226/.267 (7/30), 4 RBI, 4 K

For more information on the Angels see FanSided’s Athletics page, Swingin’ A’s.

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Series Preview: Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers - Nolan Writin' - Nolan Writin' - A Texas Rangers Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

May 11, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers center fielder Craig Gentry (23) watches a fan catch a home run ball hit by Los Angeles Angels right fielder Torii Hunter (not pictured) in the sixth inning at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-US PRESSWIRE

They need to keep going, however. Next is Oakland and if they should be swept again, their lead in the division will drop to just two games. Hard to believe that Oakland is the team currently on the Rangers’ tails.

Quick Game Results
05/14 L 3-1
W- Bruce Chen (2-4) L- Scott Feldman (0-1) S- Jonathan Broxton (8)

05/15 L 7-4
W- Vin Mazzaro (1-0) L- Colby Lewis (3-3)

Win Probability Added (WPA) (Starting Pitchers in bold)

When the team leader in WPA for a series is a reliever who pitches one inning, you had a pretty rough series.

Tale of the Tape

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Series By The Numbers: Royals @ Rangers - Nolan Writin' - Nolan Writin' - A Texas Rangers Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More