1. Rangers — 21-13
2. Athletics — 18-18 (4.0 GB)
3. Mariners — 16-19 (5.5 GB)
4. Angels — 12-22 (9.0 GB)
5. Astros — 10-25 (11.5 GB)

Last Spring the Angels fell as low as 7.0 full games behind the Rangers in April, an early-season start that effectively eliminated any chance they had at reaching the postseason. In 2013, Anaheim is a full 2.0 games worse than the unclimbable hole they put themselves in last April, which is exacerbated by the fact that it’s nearly the middle of May — giving them less time to make up the difference.

The Athletics started the year 9-2 after 11 games, and 12-4 through 16 — which included a perfect 6-0 record against the lowly Astros. It was the best start of any team in the American League. But since that point they’ve gone just 6-14, including their most recent 4-game sweep in Cleveland in which they were outscored 21-8. Since April 12th, Oakland has lost 6.0 games in the standings to the Rangers.

Since I don’t envision a scenario where the Mariners or Astros are competitive in 2013, I’m just not going to talk about them. So there you go.

If you need a direct correlation as to why each team in the West is in the position they are currently in, look no further than pitching. Out of 30 MLB teams, here is how the AL West stacks up in terms of FIP-wins (or fWAR):

2. Rangers (+7.0)

13. Athletics (+3.3)

19. Mariners (+2.4)

28. Angels (+0.2)

29. Astros (-0.8)

And by ERA:

2. Rangers (3.22)

21. Mariners (4.08)

26. Athletics (4.31)

28. Angels (4.66)

30. Astros (5.60)

To quantify these numbers into a thesis that can be easily understood, we can say something along the lines of – Yeah, well, the pitching in the AL West pretty much sucks, but the Rangers have been one of baseball’s best pitching staffs.

What I find most ironic about the data is that all of Oakland, Anaheim, and Seattle are historically run-suppressive ballparks, while the Rangers play half their games within the confines of arguably MLB’s most liberal run-scoring environment.

If I’m a fan of the Angels or A’s, what I find most disconcerting is that there hasn’t been a heavy amount of luck — or in this instance, bad luck — adversely skewing results. Oakland’s xFIP (what their ERA should be) is 4.18; in reality it’s 4.31, which is a finite difference.

The Angels’ ERA, on the other hand, is 4.66, but their xFIP is 4.34, which suggests it should come down at least little bit. Eventually the Angel offense is going to punish American League pitching again. There’s just too much talent in that lineup for it not to turn around. The key to their turnaround has to be better pitching, but at this point (a) it looks like a successful year will be making it into the playoff field as one of the two Wild Card teams, and (b) they’ll mostly have to do it with what they already have, because they possess one of the worst farm systems in baseball.

If you are a fan of the Rangers, it’s hard not to like the position they are in. Yeah, first place 4 game lead blah blah blah that’s all cool, but it’s the means by which they are winning — the process — that’s important. Good offense flashes in and out like a fart in the wind, but pitching doesn’t die.

Right now Ranger pitching is almost a full run better than anyone else in its division. That’s substantial and, after a 35-game sample, not at all a fluke.

Source: FanGraphs

If you aren’t familiar with how a leverage index works, it’s quite simple, really: Depending on the context of the game (score, inning, outs), each team has a specific probability of winning. For instance, if your team is winning by 3 runs with 2 outs in the 9th inning (and no one is on base), they carry exceptional odds of winning the game. If there’s nobody out in a tied game in the 5th, odds are basically neutral. You get the picture.

Last night’s game was one of those rare back-and-forth, punch-for-punch, you-score-I-score baseball affairs; we typically see that more in football and basketball, where the offense controls their own destiny. In baseball, the offense doesn’t even have the ball in their hands.

As you can see, by the time Leonys Martin singled home David Murphy in the top-half of the 2nd, the Rangers Win Probability was already at 73.8%. (I understand it’s foolish to assume victory when the opposition still has 24 outs remaining, but just let the numbers bear themselves out.) By when the 4th inning ended, the Angels had just brought 3 runs across home plate against Ranger starter, Derek Holland, and odds tilted in the opposing direction, with Texas’ probability down to 35.2%.

Then Mitch Moreland doubled and tied it, 3-3, in the 6th — WPA went up to 43.7%.

In the bottom of the 6th, the Angels appeared to have wrapped up the game. Chris Iannetta effectively ended Holland’s night with a two-out RBI double — which was the last hitter Derek faced — and Jason Frasor came in and allowed a single to the backup 3rd baseman, Luis Jimenez. After the inning ended, the Angels led 6-3, and the Rangers’ Win Probability dropped to 9.5% — losing territory.

If you recall the game between LAA and TEX last July — in Arlington — the Rangers trailed 7-1 early in the game, and Jered Weaver was pitching for them; it didn’t look good. Over the middle-to-latter stages of the game, Texas pecked away enough to put themselves in position for a tie, and Ian Kinsler ultimately hit a game-tying HR in the bottom of the 9th to even the score at 7-7. 

Then Joe Nathan allowed two home runs in the top of the 10th, one to Chris Iannetta and another to Albert Pujols, and the Angels led 10-7 heading into the bottom of the frame. I’m not looking at the leverage index from that game, but a three-run deficit with three outs left in play doesn’t create particularly good odds of success. Probably somewhere south of 5%.

And yet, the Rangers eventually pulled it out, 11-10, in what was probably the most memorable game of the 2012 season. I know it’s only April, but last’s night’s matchup with the Angels was reminiscent of last year’s classic affair. And like last year, the Rangers eventually won.

In the top of the 7th, down by 3, the Rangers loaded the bases with nobody out. In successive plate appearances to lead off the inning, the Rangers probability of winning jumped from 13.6% (after the Elvis Andrus single), to 20.8% (after Lance Berkman‘s single), to 31.6% (after the Adrian Beltre walk).

Things were starting to look up, but there was still damage needed to be done.

The next three hitters did just that: A.J. Pierzynski singled to left; Nelson Cruz made it 6-5 on a fielder’s choice to the SS; Jeff Baker tapped a ball back to the pitcher — which he booted. The game was even at 6 apiece.

In the 7th and 8th, Tanner Scheppers (2-0) locked the Angels down — we really might be seeing a 2nd major bullpen weapon in the making, next to Joe Nathan. He was, as what has been a recurring theme in 2013, remarkable.

The offenses remained stagnant until there were two outs in the top of the 9th inning, when Rangers’ catcher and the quickly-becoming-awesome A.J. Pierzynski launched a towering home run into right field.

Joe Nathan didn’t give up the lead. The Rangers (13-6) gained a game on second-place Oakland (12-8), and took a head-to-head matchup that you felt the Angels (7-11) needed much more than did Texas.

Tonight Alexi Ogando pairs up with Angel LHP Jason Vargas, in a game I will be in attendance for. Let’s win the series tonight, yeah?

Apr 20, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Nick Tepesch (49) throws to the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

The Rangers are coming off of a three game sweep of the Seattle Mariners which included games started by Nick Tepesch and Justin Grimm. As we all know, Tepesch was hit by a pitch in the second inning of his start, and had to be removed from the game and replaced by Derek Lowe. All of Rangers nation held they’re breath waiting for the epic fail, but Derek came through in a very big way and helped the Rangers get that win. Then Justin Grimm showed all of us why he is a highly touted prospect when he struck out nine in his win against the M’s on Sunday. Now I know the Mariners are not exactly the cream of the crop when it comes to American League teams, but a sweep is a sweep.

Of course our next opponents, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are also coming off of a three game sweep of the Detroit Tigers, a team many expect to win the World Series this year. The Angels offense is finally looking like all of the experts expected it too, that is, crushing the ball on a regular basis. The Angels now lead the league in batting average at .280, but are fifth from last in team ERA at 4.58 (source).

This is what Derek Holland looks like

The Rangers go to Anaheim as the first place team in the West, the Angels sitting in third but moving up quickly. This series in not the end all to the division, since it is still only April, but I see the Rangers having an advantage, and that advantage is pitching. It has been a long time since we could say that the Rangers have the best pitching in the American League West, but right now that is the case. Texas not only has the best record in all of the American League, but they also have the lowest ERA. This in not a coincidence. The Rangers team ERA is an astoundingly low 2.68, and that is without Colby Lewis and now without Matt Harrison. The Angels may have the better offense, but pitching wins games, and pitching wins championships. Without Jered Weaver, their pitching staff becomes much worse, and tonight’s matchup has Derek Holland (1-1, 1.64 ERA) matched up against Joe Blanton (0-3, 8.59 ERA). The Rangers should be able to take advantage of the Angels pitching, and the Angels are going to need some luck or a really bad night by Holland AND the Ranger bull pen to have success tonight. If you have seen any Angels baseball this season, you know that he crowd is not really behind them at all because of how poorly they have started for the second year in a row, so home field advantage is basicly out. Tonight should be a fun game to watch for Rangers fans everywhere.

Now I am not saying the Rangers are going to sweep the series, and we all know that the Rangers have not played as well on the road as they have at home, but the Angels are struggling mightily in the pitching department and the Rangers are not, and that usually means a win for the team with the good pitching (see the Rangers and Angels series from 2001-2008 and see how it went for the team with the better pitching). If any fan base know that you can’t slug your way to a World Series, it is the Rangers fans.The Angels are going to slug their way to a bunch of wins in 2013, don’t misunderstand me there. I just don’t believe that they can do it against this great Texas Rangers pitching. I hope that the Rangers prove me right over the next three late nights.