Aug 23, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington (38) takes out relief pitcher Tanner Scheppers (52) during the ninth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Rangers Ballpark. Texas won 10-6. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Here is a quote from David Hill of  RaysColoredGlasses.com on how the Rays do it:

“The Rays have done an excellent job over the past few years in locating pitchers that struggled elsewhere and turning them into serviceable, and often time much more than that, pieces of the bullpen. Pitchers such as Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, and Fernando Rodney may have been on their last chances at a major league job, yet produced far beyond their expectations…”

Fernando Rodney, Joel Peralta, Jake McGee, Burke Badenhop, J.P. Howell, Cesar Ramos, Wade Davis, and Kyle Farnsworth were the leaders of Joe Maddon‘s bullpen. Doesn’t seem very good on paper. You can probably only picture a couple of them actually playing, but all of them pitched quite a bit for the Rays last year.

Rodney had one of the best seasons for a reliever I have ever witnessed. Where did he come from? Where was he hiding? Well, friends,  he was hiding behind his alarmingly high walk rate. In 2011 Rodney walked nearly eight batters per nine innings. Last year Rodney walked less than two per nine. All it took was some insight and instruction.

When it comes to the Rangers, there is no shortage of pitching coaches or “advisers” that know how to coach. I’m fairly confident Fernando would’ve had close to the same success in Arlington as he did in St. Petersburgh. So… what’s the point? Okay when looking at the Rays’ pen nearly every single pitcher had a career year. In other words, Andrew Friedman pulled the veterans from where they were to resurrect them in Florida. Even the youngsters had mid-4 to low-5 ERA’s  and after a season in the “Trop” all was better.

The stat that seemed to trend was walks per nine innings. Rodney’s BB/9 in 2011 was 7.9, last year’s was 1.8. Jake McGee‘s BB/9 in 2011 was 3.9, last year’s was 1.8. Burke Badenhop‘s was 3.4 in 2011 compared to 1.7 in 2012. J.P. Howell‘s was 5.3 in 2011 compared to 3.9 in 2012. In 2011 Cesar Ramos‘ BB/9 was 5.2 and in 2012 his BB/9 dropped to 3.0. Wade Davis just learned how to flat out pitch.

Tanner Scheppers,  Michael Kirkman, Joe Nathan, and  Robbie Ross or Martin Perez will be back…. Mark Lowe, Scott Feldman, Koji Uehara, Mike Adams and Roy Oswalt are gone. They will be replaced with guys like Jason Frasor, Josh Lindblom, Joakim Soria, Jeff Beliveau, Collin Balester and Cory Burns. This year’s bullpen payroll should be about 5-8 million dollars cheaper than last year’s.

The Rangers are hoping their strategy will work out exactly the same for them as it did for the Rays. With names like Frasor, Soria, Balester, Lindblom, Burns and Beliveau… the game plan has officially shifted in Arlington. Granted, Soria and Frasor have been good pros for most of their careers, they now undeniably enter RBiA with chips on their shoulders (or elbows). There is no doubt the Maddux brothers can piece together a good bullpen with the talent they will be working with in Arizona this spring.

With the off-season focus stabilizing on whether or not the Rangers will make a move to land a power bat to the lineup as we prepare to head into the new year, it’s time to focus on an aspect that could be just as important: the bullpen.

As ESPNDallas.com’s Richard Durrett said here, the team’s bullpen is going to have a very different feel to it in 2013, but who exactly will the fans see jogging to the mound from right-center field in the mid-to-late innings at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington?

First, let’s take a look at who is set in the bullpen:

• Joe Nathan will be the closer…

Now that that list is summed up we can move on to who will not be rejoining the team’s bullpen next season:

• Alexi Ogando: Don’t panic. Ogando is still on the team. He’s just moving back to the starting rotation and could fit nicely in the number three spot to break up lefties Matt Harrison and Derek Holland if the team does not land a middle-of-the-rotation starter by the beginning of the season.

• Mike Adams: Adams signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the Phillies around the same time that all the Josh Hamilton hub-bub was happening, so it might have gone unnoticed by some fans. Nevertheless, he commanded too much money and the Rangers were never really interested in retaining him for that price. Man I’m going to miss his warm-up music.

• Koji Uehara: This one stings a little. Uehara provided a lot of energy for the ‘pen and pitched really well towards the end of the season. In fact, during the epic collapse, he was one of the only guys that remained dominant. He signed a one-year, $4.25 million deal with the Red Sox on Dec. 6. He will be missed.

• Mark Lowe: All I can say is thank goodness Lowe will not be plaguing the team any longer. I always wanted to cheer for the guy because he is from my hometown, Sugar Land, TX, but one’s blind cheers can only go for so long. I don’t know why Ron Washington kept putting him in in close games, but he never panned out on the team and it seemed like he gave up the game-winning home run too many times (World Series Game 6, anyone?) for me to continue singing his praises.

• Scott Feldman: Scooter signed with the Cubs for one-year, $6 million in late November. So he won’t be in the bullpen, or in the rotation, or in the bullpen again, or in the rotation again for the 2013 campaign.

• Joakim Soria: The Rangers signed the former Royals closer to a two-year, $8 million deal earlier this off-season, but will not get him back until May as he is still rebounding from Tommy John surgery. The team took a similar risk with Nathan last year and it panned out relatively well. When Soria becomes healthy he will become the setup man for Nathan. The eighth and ninth inning guys will provide a lot of veteran leadership that could rub off on the following plethora of young talent.
  

  Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

• Robbie Ross: Unless Ross injures himself or messes up somehow in spring, he will be on the roster; it’s just a matter of where. Jon Daniels said recently that the team has contemplated moving him to the rotation if they do not land another starter. He will be competing with the next two fellows for that spot. If he is selected, the Rangers would have three southpaws in their starting five.

• Martin Perez: Though he did not pan out last season, Perez is still widely-regarded as one of the top young pitchers in the game and could be a No. 5 starter for the team. If not, he will probably get a chance to start the season in the bullpen.

• Justin Grimm: Grimm got a couple of spur-of-the-moment starts last season. He filled in the rotation when Holland went down and held his own when you consider he jumped from Double-A to the Majors in a matter of days. He will get a look from the office during spring, but should be considered as an outside shot, as Ross or Perez will land it most likely. If he does not get the starting job he could add another cog in the bullpen as he also appeared in three games out of the ‘pen in 2012.

• Tanner Scheppers: Scheppers was once looked at as a major starting prospect in the farm system, but, due to injury, has evolved into a middle reliever. He had a 4.45 ERA in 39 games last season. He proved himself, and, if he improves, he will surely land a spot.

• Michael Kirkman: Kirkman has run the gauntlet in the past few seasons, going back-and-forth between the Majors and Triple-A. He was supposed to be up all year last year, but Ross stole the lefty spot during spring training and never relinquished it. When the plague hit the Rangers pitching staff, he was called up and pitched in 28 games, posting a 3.82 ERA. He stands a solid chance to begin the season in the bullpen.

• Wilmer Font: This 22-year old got a look when the rosters expanded last season and, frankly, did not make the most of his opportunities, giving up two earned runs in two innings. He has a little more of a biased chance to make the squad just because he appeared last year, but he will really need to impress at spring training to do so.

• Josh Lindblom: Though he has said all the right things since coming over in the Michael Young trade, fans will consistently think of him as Young’s replacement. Lindblom denies that he wants any part of that. For the sake of the front office, he needs to make the opening day roster and pitch really well out of the ‘pen. He has considerable major league experience, though all of it comes in the National League.

• Jeff Beliveau: Beliveau provides another left-handed option in case something happens to Ross or Kirkman (or if Ross makes the rotation). He was picked up off waivers from the Cubs on Dec. 21 and was immediately placed on the 40-man roster. He played most of last season in the minors, but posted a 4.85 ERA in 17.2 innings in the Majors in 2012.

• Cory Burns: The Rangers traded the Padres for Burns in late November to add depth to their bullpen options. He provides just that and has another outside chance of making the 25-man roster. He appeared in 18 innings with the Padres last season, posting a 5.50 ERA in those innings.

• Tommy Hottovy: Hottovy is another left-handed bullpen candidate acquired through waivers this off-season. He came from the Royals, where he posted a 2.89 ERA in only 9.1 innings last season. He as a decent chance at popping up in the bullpen this season, but it is fairly unlikely that the team will take him above the other lefties in line ahead of him (However, him and Beliveau stand about the same chance at making the team at this point).

• Yoshinori Tateyama: The Japanese right-hander has been up and down over the past two seasons with the Rangers and was signed to a minor league contract earlier this month. He was used primarily to mop up other pitchers messes this season and did not do so well in that role. Yoshi did much better as a middle reliever in 2011 and has a lot of upside if he can limit the long ball. I would argue that, though he is the only player I included that is not on the 40-man roster, he has a considerable chance to make the major leagues out of spring training if he pitches well.

Compounding the problem is the type of inning the four have been pitching, not just the quantity. Using the ‘Leverage Index’ statistic (where the median is 1, 1.5 is considered high leverage, and below 1 is considered low leverage), it is possible to quantify the importance of innings pitched to the final outcome of the game.  Looking at the gmLI, or LI when the pitcher enters the game, Nathan leads the team at 2.09, followed by Mike Adams at 1.54, Ogando at 1.45, and Robbie Ross at 1.36. There is a significant gap to the next pitcher, Koji Uehara who checks in at a much, much lower .32. Obviously Mike Maddux and Ron Washington have decided to maximize the innings they get from their preferred relievers, and so far the Rangers bullpen has led the league in FIP at 2.59, Win Probability Added at 2.46, and are third in the league in Shutdowns and have by far the fewest Meltdowns, at 2 (the league median is 10). While relying on four elite relievers has worked out quite well for them, the Rangers may soon find they need to start giving either Mark Lowe or Koji Uehara some high-leverage innings, if only to give the rest of the bullpen a breather.

Mark Lowe - Reuters

Deciding between Uehara and Mark Lowe isn’t as easy as it may seem, however. In their limited exposure this season, both have pitched well. They both are striking out approximately 30% of the batters they face, have just one walk and three earned runs between them, all three of which were home runs. In fact, the long ball has been their greatest weakness, as neither has benefited much from luck: both have BABIPs that are roughly near their career averages, and although Mark Lowe has left 100% of baserunners on base compared to a career average of 70%, the small sample size for that data prevents us from really drawing any conclusions.

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