Yu Darvish, your master

Here is what I wrote about Yu Darvish on January 23rd:

Dan Symborski, who every year runs his ZIPS projection system, has Darvish at 193.0 IP, with 226 K’s, 86 BB’s, an ERA of 3.4, and 5.7 WAR. I’m not saying this is who Darvish will be in 2013, but if [Symborski's computer] is accurate, we’re looking at a top-of-the-rotation Cy Young candidate.

If you’re asking me, which I don’t know why you would, I see him surpassing these projections. When the Rangers dished out north of $100 million to ascertain Darvish’s services before last year, they weren’t only paying for a TORP, or an ace, they were paying for the best pitcher in the Major Leagues. His first few months last year, where it seemed like he was walking 4 or 5 hitters a game, were painful to watch. It was enough to give the casual Rangers fan pause, and to question if the organization had made a grave mistake in the longterm.

I’m expecting a dominant sophomore season from the Japanese import, perhaps putting him in the same class as Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, and Clayton Kershaw.

* * *

I won’t pat myself on the back, even though I want to, because I wasn’t the only one to expect this type of success from Yu Darvish. Last year Keith Law predicted him to be the Rookie of the Year and Cy Yound Award winner. Today Jason Parks tweeted the image below:

So yeah, good things, basically.

Today the Rangers defeated the Red Sox 4-3 in dramatic walk-off fashion, with Yu Darvish stealing the show in what was ultimately a no-decision. Darvish went 7.0 innings (throwing a career-high 127 pitches), allowing 3 runs on 4 hits, walking 2 and striking out a ridiculous 14 Boston hitters.

The 14 punch outs ties a career high for Yu, which he posted in his first start this year, against Houston. He’s now eliminated 72 batters via the strikeout in 45.2 IP, which is the best mark in the Majors by 25 15 (A.J. Burnett, 57).

Darvish’s 2013 xFIP of 1.96 is also the best in the bigs; 2nd is Max Scherzer at 2.18. Yu’s 2.56 ERA suggests he should be performing about a half-run better than his results indicate, which feels weird to say since it’s such a fantastic number as it already stands.

On the afternoon, Darvish induced 19 swings-and-misses, which was good for a Swing Strike% of 15.0%, which somehow is a full 2.0% below what his season average has been to this point (17.0%). To put his “stuff” into perspective, in 7 starts in 2013 Yu Darvish has forced 123 swinging strikes. I’m too lazy to look up if any other pitchers in baseball are even remotely close to that, but Max Scherzer is 2nd in baseball to Darvish with a strikeout rate of 12.36%, and he has only forced 86 swings-and-misses — 37 less than Yu.

* * *

With two outs in the 9th inning and Elvis Andrus on 2nd base, Red Sox manager John Farrell decided to intentionally walk Lance Berkman – who in his last 10 games has hit at a pretty empty .222/.444/.333 clip — in favor of pitching to Adrian Beltre, who despite his slow start had racked up 6 hits in his last 13 at bats heading into the decisive moment of the game.

It seems like I say Adrian Beltre‘s name all the time when important shit goes down.

On a two strike pitch, with two outs and runners on 1st and 2nd, Beltre looped a base hit into right field to send Boston out of town with three more losses than they came in with. The Rangers, on the other hand, improve to 20-11 with the sweep, tying them with the Red Sox for the best record in the Major Leagues.

Texas now goes on a weird little road trip where tomorrow they’ll face Scott Feldman in a makeup game in Chicago, then head to Milwaukee for 2 before meeting the Astros in Houston next weekend.

Anyway, can’t ask for anything more than being in first place, and god damn it’s fun to watch Yu Darvish throw a baseball.

]]> http://nolanwritin.com/2013/05/06/yu-darvish-is-a-god-amongst-men/feed/ 0 http://nolanwritin.com/2013/05/03/the-red-sox-come-to-town/ http://nolanwritin.com/2013/05/03/the-red-sox-come-to-town/#comments Fri, 03 May 2013 17:58:23 +0000 Ben Dieter http://nolanwritin.com/?p=5470   The Red Sox have the best record in all of baseball right now, and the Rangers have been going through a bit of a slump, losing four of their last seven, but they still happen to have the third best record in all of baseball (Yankees are second by half a game). Also, the Red [...]

The Red Sox Come To Town - Nolan Writin' - Nolan Writin' - A Texas Rangers Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

 

Oh look, a fine Associated Press photo

The Red Sox have the best record in all of baseball right now, and the Rangers have been going through a bit of a slump, losing four of their last seven, but they still happen to have the third best record in all of baseball (Yankees are second by half a game). Also, the Red Sox are 8-2 in their last ten games, while the Rangers are 5-5. So, this is a big series showdown to see who is the best team in the American League coming out of this weekend, because one of these two teams will hold that honor once this series is over.

The Rangers send Derek Holland to the hill tonight (1-2, 3.38 ERA) and he has had some  bad luck in his last few starts. Derek is 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA in his last three starts, and he did not have a lot of run support in those games. He is pitching well, and I hope the fact that this game is at home will help Derek adjust and focus and win tonight’s matchup. The Red Sox put Felix Doubront (3-0, 4.24 ERA). Je is 3-0 with a 3.93 ERA in his last three starts. Depending on which Rangers offense shows up, this could be a tough game for Derek to win.

Saturday the Rangers send Alexi Ogando (2-2, 3.38 ERA) to the hill to try to defeat a guy Rangers fans are very familiar with, John Lackey (1-1, 2.61 ERA). Lackey is having a great start to the season, and I hope a trip to Rangers Ballpark will end that for now. Several of the Rangers hitters have good numbers against Lackey, and several of them have never hit against him. Should be an interesting one to watch. Hopefully, the good Alexi will show up and hold down the good Boston Offense.

Sunday will be a great one. Yu Darvish (5-1, 2.33 ERA) will go up against Jon Lester (4-0, 3.11 ERA). Darvish won five games in the month of April and looked really good doing it. Lester has not been that good over his last three starts (2-0, 4.82 ERA), and in his last start he allowed a season high six runs (five earned) against the Blue Jays. Darvish is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts with thirty strikeouts. This should be a really fun matchup to watch and this game has particular meaning to me because Nathan Hague, the other half of the podcast  I do, will be at the game in the press box and should have some good Rangers interviews for us on our next podcast.

I am not sure how to call this series. It all depends on whether the Rangers offense shows up or not. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter how good the Rangers pitchers do, this is going to be a long weekend for Texas Rangers fans. Lets hope it is not.

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The biggest question facing this club and us as fans is what is the big picture goal of the front office right now? The insistence on not laying out long term cash for any free agents this year and bigger insistence in not moving Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus speaks to something bigger going on.  But that’s the question. What? Do we think we can get a deal done for another front line pitcher or land Giancarlo Stanton or Carlos Gonzales.

Just compiling info as the guys arrive in Surprise and get busy this week, we see that Mike Olt says he’s ready to play right field. That’s good news since we don’t know if Nelson Cruz will miss a chunk of the season or not.  We’re seemingly set in the infield except first base. We have someone to play there but can Mitch Moreland turn it up a notch or will we see the fragile Lance Berkman fill the spot most often. Outfield is where some of our biggest challenges are. Besides the Nelson question, can Murphy continue his step forward from last season? Will Ron Washington go to a platoon in center with Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry?

We appear to have a starting four for our rotation. But honestly it could just be three. Derek Holland took a giant step backwards last season and is not maturing the way he should. So we have Darvish, Harrison and Ogando locked and loaded. Can Holland lock down the fourth spot? Then for the fifth guy, will Perez or Grimm step up?

I said one of our biggest questions was outfield. The arguably biggest question is our bullpen. We have plenty of security (it appears) in the eighth and ninth innings. What about sixth (hopefully not often) and seventh? Losing Adams and the “good” Koji was probably second on the disappointment list after Hamilton.

It’s a scary and exciting time for Ranger fans.  The one question I don’t want to even think about right now. Is it time to tap the brakes on expectations?