Oct 24, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello (48) delivers a pitch during the eighth inning of game one of the 2012 World Series against the San Francisco Giants at AT

Prior to his injury, Martín Pérez appeared to be the favorite to win the No. 5 spot in the Texas rotation, but as it stands now, the Rangers’ best options for the No. 5 spot in the starting rotation have come down to Nick Tepesch and Robbie Ross. Ross, whom was the Rangers’ primary LHP out of the bullpen in 2012, would appear to be the odd man out in the battle for the No. 5 spot in the rotation had LHPs Joe Ortiz and Michael Kirkman not displayed such strong Springs.

Colby Lewis, who missed the majority of the 2012 season due to a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow, appears to be ready to return the Rangers in mid-to-late May and would ideally slide into the No. 5 spot in the rotation, thusly bumping either Tepesch or Ross from the role, but there are obvious questions regarding how effective Lewis will be after rehabilitation, which is evidently giving the Rangers some reason to evaluate external options to fill out the rotation, which is where Rick Porcello enters the equation.

Based on WAR, Porcello is coming off of his strongest season to date. The young righty posted 2.9 WAR with a FIP of 3.91 in 176.1 innings in 2012. Porcello’s 2012 ERA of 4.59 is obviously not awe-inspiring, but don’t forget to take into account the Tigers’ weak infield defense. Porcello is a groundball pitcher and given the discrepancy between Porcello’s FIP and his ERA, it is evident that the Tigers’ weak infield defense is to blame. The Rangers on the other hand have one of the stronger infield defenses in all of baseball. So with Porcello pitching in front of a strong infield defense like the one in Texas, his ERA would correspondingly correlate more to his FIP, making Porcello a very solid No. 3 starter on a playoff team, with room to improve, given that he’s still only 24.

Rick Porcello is obviously a good fit for the Rangers, given his propensity to get groundballs, but what exactly would the Tigers want for him?

Rumors seem to indicate that the Tigers have interest in the Rangers’ Leury Garcia and Nick Tepesch, but I would think that the Tigers would want another prospect in order to agree to a deal. Perhaps a 3-player plackage centered around Luis Sardinas gets a deal done, and if that is the case, it would be a very solid deal on both sides. The Rangers would be acquiring a young and durable groundball pitcher and the Tigers would be acquiring a defensive whiz shortstop in Sardinas, to replace Jhonny Peralta.

Rick Porcello would provide the Rangers with a durable No. 3-4 starter, which sounds decent, until one actually realizes how rare a commodity that true No. 3 starters are in baseball. So there is obvious motivation for the Rangers to attempt to swing a deal, especially given the uncertainty at the bottom of the Rangers’ rotation, and as with any trade rumors, most of this conjecture depends on the Tigers’ asking price, but the Rangers are an ideal fit for Porcello’s services and the Rangers also seem to match up pretty well with the Tigers as trade partners, given the Rangers’ strong middle-infield depth, so only time will tell.

Somewhere out there, probably tucked away in a bunker in the dry hills of the greater Phoenix area, Jon Daniels and his team already have the gist of the 25-man roster set. They know who the last two bench spots will go to; they know who they like to round out what appears to be a suspect bullpen arrangement; they know which starting pitcher will cover the 5th spot until Colby Lewis returns from his rehab (which is expected to be 6 weeks into the regular season). And that’s great.

The problem is, we don’t know any of these things. All we can do is project what we think to be the best answer, and generally the best way to do that is by analyzing Ranger trends from recent history. This is what we know, and thus, this is where I will begin on the search for our fifth starter.

What we know about the Rangers is they will do absolutely everything within their means to extract the most possible value out of a player. Since starting pitching is the most valued commodity on the open market, it makes sense that — in recent years — they’ve looked to capitalize on the arms of C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando in the rotation, rather than the bullpen. Wilson paid off with back-to-back stellar campaigns as a starter before cashing in with the Angels, and Ogando produced an impressive 3.5 fWAR in his only season utilized out of the rotation.

Basically, we know the Rangers aren’t afraid to take relievers and put them in the rotation.

As far as stylistically, it’s safe to say the Rangers — like every other team in baseball — prefer pitchers who have the potential to rack up a lot of strikeouts. The ability to eliminate contact and generate swings and misses is imperative, particularly when pitching in Arlington, where weak contact seems to turn into damage more often than other places.

It’s just difficult for hurlers who pitch to contact on an extreme level to sustain success in Texas, which is a big reason why Matt Harrison is such a rarity. He doesn’t strikeout a lot of hitters, but he doesn’t allow many of his base runners to score.

Anyway, if it comes down to “high floor vs. high risk” decisions, the Rangers typically travel the bold, aggressive route, which is why I think Jon Daniels will go outside the box with his 5th starter to open the season.

Before spring training, the list probably resembled something like this (in order of likelihood to be the #5):

1. Martin Perez
2. Justin Grimm
3. Robbie Ross
4. Kyle McClellan
5. Randy Wells

Now here we are, about three weeks later, and the list’s look has drastically altered (updated order of likelihood):

1. Nick Tepesch
2. Michael Kirkman
3. Robbie Ross
4. Justin Grimm
5. Randy Wells
6. Martin Perez
7. Kyle McClellan 

Perez and McCellan went down to injury and probably won’t be back until May at the earliest. Grimm and Ross haven’t been especially convincing in the spring, specifically with focus on their strikeout and walk rates. Randy Wells is, well, still Randy Wells (unfortunately). Nick Tepesch and Michael Kirkman are essentially the dark horses and front runners at the same time, if only for the fact that no other pitcher from that collection has stood out.

Wells has the most experience of the bundle, accumulating 529.0 Major League innings with a career 4.08 ERA, and an xFIP of 4.29 — pretty much your typical #4-5 starter in the National League. He doesn’t strike a ton of people out (5.87 K/9IP) — mainly due to an average/below-average fastball (average velocity of 89.1 mph in 2012) — but he has a decent career walk rate (3.11 BB/9IP).

Justin Grimm seems to be the player who had the most to gain from the spring, what with Martin Perez’s injury and all. He just hasn’t proven it (yet). Last year he gave up 14 earned runs with the Rangers in the small sample of 14.0 IP, but has otherwise been a pretty sturdy pitcher on the Minor League circuit. The one thing Grimm seems to have going against him is the same as Randy Wells and Robbie Ross: they just don’t really have putdown-type stuff.

I was curious what kind of spring Robbie Ross would have, attempting to transition from bullpen to starting pitcher. I mean, after all he was drafted as a starting pitcher. He was exclusively a starting pitcher in the Minor Leagues before killing it last spring. Ross is a solid reliever, but until he develops even an average 3rd pitch [change up] to complement his above average fastball/slider mix, he will probably remain in the bullpen. As I mentioned with the previous two pitchers, Ross’s 6.51 K’s/9IP out of 65.0 bullpen innings in 2012 would not stand up if he were thrust into a starter’s workload.

Michael Kirkman is an enigma. Sometimes he pitches like Billy Wagner in his prime. Other times you sort of feel like Scott Feldman is on the mound. No rhythm. No concept of the strike zone. Just a bearded, bewildered pitcher gazing at the catcher like he really doesn’t want to throw the next pitch. Over 79.0 career innings in the Majors, Kirkman has a solid 8.54 K/9 rate, juxtaposed by a rather high 4.44 BB/9. His career ERA is 4.33, though his SIERA (3.83) suggests he’s got some talent.

In 9.0 shutout innings this spring, including three perfect innings in a spot-start a couple nights ago, Michael Kirkman has been the best pitcher in camp. With no options remaining, this is his prove it season with the Rangers. He would be quite the diamond in the rough if he can keep his walks down.

The last candidate is rookie Nick Tepesch. He’ll pitch the entirety of the 2013 season as a 24 year-old, though because his birthday is in October, technically it’s his age-25 season.

If he makes the team, it will be wildly reminiscent of Robbie Ross’s ascension last year. Like Ross, Tepesch has thrown only limited innings (90.0) above Single-A. Would it be risky to start a pitcher essentially with Double-A experience in a Major League rotation? Absolutely. But with the way the schedule works out, the 5th starter doesn’t need to be used until the second week of the season, and if Colby Lewis is due back in six weeks, then we’re probably only talking about 4-5 starts from the 5th spot in the rotation. It’s an appropriate opportunity to take a chance on a younger pitcher who could generate more value.

From that standpoint, I think Nick Tepesch is the leader heading into the clubhouse, but Michael Kirkman is certainly creating his ripples in the stream.

Who do you think will be the 5th starter come Opening Day?

With the off-season focus stabilizing on whether or not the Rangers will make a move to land a power bat to the lineup as we prepare to head into the new year, it’s time to focus on an aspect that could be just as important: the bullpen.

As ESPNDallas.com’s Richard Durrett said here, the team’s bullpen is going to have a very different feel to it in 2013, but who exactly will the fans see jogging to the mound from right-center field in the mid-to-late innings at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington?

First, let’s take a look at who is set in the bullpen:

• Joe Nathan will be the closer…

Now that that list is summed up we can move on to who will not be rejoining the team’s bullpen next season:

• Alexi Ogando: Don’t panic. Ogando is still on the team. He’s just moving back to the starting rotation and could fit nicely in the number three spot to break up lefties Matt Harrison and Derek Holland if the team does not land a middle-of-the-rotation starter by the beginning of the season.

• Mike Adams: Adams signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the Phillies around the same time that all the Josh Hamilton hub-bub was happening, so it might have gone unnoticed by some fans. Nevertheless, he commanded too much money and the Rangers were never really interested in retaining him for that price. Man I’m going to miss his warm-up music.

• Koji Uehara: This one stings a little. Uehara provided a lot of energy for the ‘pen and pitched really well towards the end of the season. In fact, during the epic collapse, he was one of the only guys that remained dominant. He signed a one-year, $4.25 million deal with the Red Sox on Dec. 6. He will be missed.

• Mark Lowe: All I can say is thank goodness Lowe will not be plaguing the team any longer. I always wanted to cheer for the guy because he is from my hometown, Sugar Land, TX, but one’s blind cheers can only go for so long. I don’t know why Ron Washington kept putting him in in close games, but he never panned out on the team and it seemed like he gave up the game-winning home run too many times (World Series Game 6, anyone?) for me to continue singing his praises.

• Scott Feldman: Scooter signed with the Cubs for one-year, $6 million in late November. So he won’t be in the bullpen, or in the rotation, or in the bullpen again, or in the rotation again for the 2013 campaign.

• Joakim Soria: The Rangers signed the former Royals closer to a two-year, $8 million deal earlier this off-season, but will not get him back until May as he is still rebounding from Tommy John surgery. The team took a similar risk with Nathan last year and it panned out relatively well. When Soria becomes healthy he will become the setup man for Nathan. The eighth and ninth inning guys will provide a lot of veteran leadership that could rub off on the following plethora of young talent.
  

  Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

• Robbie Ross: Unless Ross injures himself or messes up somehow in spring, he will be on the roster; it’s just a matter of where. Jon Daniels said recently that the team has contemplated moving him to the rotation if they do not land another starter. He will be competing with the next two fellows for that spot. If he is selected, the Rangers would have three southpaws in their starting five.

• Martin Perez: Though he did not pan out last season, Perez is still widely-regarded as one of the top young pitchers in the game and could be a No. 5 starter for the team. If not, he will probably get a chance to start the season in the bullpen.

• Justin Grimm: Grimm got a couple of spur-of-the-moment starts last season. He filled in the rotation when Holland went down and held his own when you consider he jumped from Double-A to the Majors in a matter of days. He will get a look from the office during spring, but should be considered as an outside shot, as Ross or Perez will land it most likely. If he does not get the starting job he could add another cog in the bullpen as he also appeared in three games out of the ‘pen in 2012.

• Tanner Scheppers: Scheppers was once looked at as a major starting prospect in the farm system, but, due to injury, has evolved into a middle reliever. He had a 4.45 ERA in 39 games last season. He proved himself, and, if he improves, he will surely land a spot.

• Michael Kirkman: Kirkman has run the gauntlet in the past few seasons, going back-and-forth between the Majors and Triple-A. He was supposed to be up all year last year, but Ross stole the lefty spot during spring training and never relinquished it. When the plague hit the Rangers pitching staff, he was called up and pitched in 28 games, posting a 3.82 ERA. He stands a solid chance to begin the season in the bullpen.

• Wilmer Font: This 22-year old got a look when the rosters expanded last season and, frankly, did not make the most of his opportunities, giving up two earned runs in two innings. He has a little more of a biased chance to make the squad just because he appeared last year, but he will really need to impress at spring training to do so.

• Josh Lindblom: Though he has said all the right things since coming over in the Michael Young trade, fans will consistently think of him as Young’s replacement. Lindblom denies that he wants any part of that. For the sake of the front office, he needs to make the opening day roster and pitch really well out of the ‘pen. He has considerable major league experience, though all of it comes in the National League.

• Jeff Beliveau: Beliveau provides another left-handed option in case something happens to Ross or Kirkman (or if Ross makes the rotation). He was picked up off waivers from the Cubs on Dec. 21 and was immediately placed on the 40-man roster. He played most of last season in the minors, but posted a 4.85 ERA in 17.2 innings in the Majors in 2012.

• Cory Burns: The Rangers traded the Padres for Burns in late November to add depth to their bullpen options. He provides just that and has another outside chance of making the 25-man roster. He appeared in 18 innings with the Padres last season, posting a 5.50 ERA in those innings.

• Tommy Hottovy: Hottovy is another left-handed bullpen candidate acquired through waivers this off-season. He came from the Royals, where he posted a 2.89 ERA in only 9.1 innings last season. He as a decent chance at popping up in the bullpen this season, but it is fairly unlikely that the team will take him above the other lefties in line ahead of him (However, him and Beliveau stand about the same chance at making the team at this point).

• Yoshinori Tateyama: The Japanese right-hander has been up and down over the past two seasons with the Rangers and was signed to a minor league contract earlier this month. He was used primarily to mop up other pitchers messes this season and did not do so well in that role. Yoshi did much better as a middle reliever in 2011 and has a lot of upside if he can limit the long ball. I would argue that, though he is the only player I included that is not on the 40-man roster, he has a considerable chance to make the major leagues out of spring training if he pitches well.