Imagine a balloon. This balloon is attached to a flimsy string, which is staked firmly in the ground. Suddenly, the wind blows and this balloon correspondingly teeters in every such direction as dictated by the meandering air, but as the winds subside, the balloon steadily returns to its original position.

This balloon of course is the Texas Rangers, and episodes of winds always occur along the timeline of a season. Whether these winds teeter a team in a positive or negative direction, these winds always arrive. It is inevitable. Many times, a season can hinge on this proverbial flimsy string and the degree to which such winds are resisted.

Now, this does not mean that a team cannot strengthen its resistance to such winds, because they most certainly can.

It is unmistakable that the Rangers are currently playing a rather awful brand of baseball. Untimely injuries, together with poor in-game managing and a putrid offense have effectively blown the Rangers’ season backwards, whereas on a gust, the A’s, have swooshed past to overtake first place.

So what exactly can be done to alter this current course of events?

To begin, the return of Ian Kinsler from the DL was ultimately important. A healthy Kinsler would stand a strong chance lead the team in fWAR by position players by season’s end. Also, getting Mitch Moreland back from the DL would not hurt the offense either. In 216 PA thus far in 2013, Moreland has posted a 137 wRC+ and a .382 wOBA, which is great.

On the contrary, seeing less of David Murphy would be addition by subtraction. In 243 PA, Murphy has posted a pathetic 67 wRC+ and a wOBA of .280, which is remarkably awful (remarkable for the fact that he is an everyday starter).

At the moment, Jeff Baker is on the DL (go figure), but he has been undeniably fantastic in 2013. In 92 PA, Baker has 9 HR to go along with a 190 wRC+ and a .459 wOBA. Having Baker supersede Murphy as the everyday LF would prove to be a modest upgrade to the offense indeed.

Lastly, Elvis Andrus must begin to hit. Aside from Leury Garcia, Elvis Andrus has been the Rangers’ worst player offensively (57 wRC+ and a .266 wOBA to go along with a .291 BABIP, so his offensive inadequacies are not due to bad luck). Andrus will never be a plus-hitter, but an average (or near-average) season with the bat should not be too much to ask for. Should Andrus at least flip his season and perform at an average level with the bat from here on out, that would prove to be an effective boost to the lineup.

It is unmistakable that the Rangers are struggling, but there do exist reasonable, internal options to regress to more expected means. Regression can be reversed, as can inadequacies, but can is not always indicative of will. The Rangers are in a tough spot, but based on the reasonable expectations of the sum of the whole when healthy, this team will be fine.

Rangers Celebrate 2011 World Series Clinch – Courtesy of MSN FOX Sports

Anyone who plays baseball can tell you, it’s a grind. Six months is a long time to wait to see if you are going to make the post season, and for a fan, sometimes it is easy to lose site of the bigger goal. Fans expect perfection night in and night out, and that just doesn’t happen in any sport, but especially baseball. The Texas Rangers have raised the expectations of their fan base over the past three seasons by appearing in three straight post seasons including two trips to the Fall Classic. Ranger fans are hungry for more, and the Rangers are delivering so far in 2013.

The Rangers have had some patches where they look  bad offensively so far, and they have had some pitching blunders as well. As fans watch every night to see what the Rangers are going to do, it is easy to get frustrated with the way a certain player may be playing that night or the way that Ron Washington makes a pitching decision. But before you decide whether to jump off the band wagon or not remember a few things:

1. Perfection is not the goal. If perfection were the goal, than pitchers like Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez would win every year. While it is okay to desire your favorite player or team to try to play error free and mistake free night in and night out, don’t expect it. If you do you will be disappointed more often than not. The Rangers have been far from perfect in 2013, and yet they still sit atop the entire American League with the best record. Being consistent is much more important than being perfect.

2. Pitchers need to keep the team in the game. I know that we all want to see every pitcher go out every night and give up no runs on two hits while striking out 14 and walking no one, but that is simply not going to happen. Even Yu Darvish gives up bad home-runs from time to time, and he is far and away the ace of the Rangers staff. Pitchers are going to have good games, and pitchers are going to have bad games. Fans have to realize that a quality start is way more important than a perfect game. If you have a consistent starting pitcher, your offense knows what it needs to do to win. And win they will.

3. Win or split the series. Believe it or not, the Texas Rangers are not going to win every single game they have left to play in 2013. They are gong to lost fifty plus more games. Rangers fans need to realize that while trying to win every game is important, winning every game is not crucial to going to the post season and World Series.  Winning the series is important. For example, if the Rangers go .500 for the remainder of the 2013 season, they would wind up with a record of 87-75, which may be good enough to win the West. But I believe that they will do better than .500 for the rest of the season. Which means that number is going to only go up. The Rangers have a great chance of winning at least 90 games again this season and a pretty good shot at 95, in my opinion. If they win 95 games, it means they will lose 47 more games in 2013. As fans, it is important to remember that.

4. Rest players. In 2012, the brass admitted that they let too many players play too many games and they got tired. If Rangers fans want their team to return to the fall classic in 2013, they need to remember bench players  are there for a reason. To rest the starters. It is not the end of the world if Adrian Beltre gets a day off against the Royals or Mitch Moreland gets a rest against the Diamondbacks. The Rangers may even lose a game or two because of an error directly related to a starter getting rest. That is part of baseball. Sometimes the manager has to make the tough roster decision, and fans need to remember that most of the time, Ron knows what he is doing. Rangers fans need to give him the benefit of the doubt, not rip him every time there is an error by a bench player.

5. Play as a team. Here the Rangers have the advantage over many other teams, but especially the Angels. The Angels are a collection of great offensive talent, but from my outsiders view, they don’t seem to really care much about the other guys on the team. They are about individual results. The Rangers seem to have fun in the dugout and on the field. Elvis and Beltre come to mind right away. The Rangers seem to legitimately care about each other, and that breeds winning. The Rangers have picked each other up several times this season, and I believe that trend will continue.

The Rangers have a great shot of getting back to the World Series this season. They are way better than they were projected to be by most, and the American League does not appear to be as strong as it has been over the past few seasons. There are going to be some amazing games, and there are going to be some really ugly games going forward. As long as there are games in late October, I can live with that. Rangers fans should be able to as well.

May 20, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman Jurickson Profar (13) throws to first during the game against the Oakland Athletics at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Oakland won 9-2. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

So that brings us to this: Are there any true motivations for the Rangers to trade such a prospect of Profar’s caliber?

Absolutely.

Just this April, the Rangers signed current shortstop, Elvis Andrus, to an 8-year, $120MM extension, and last April, the Rangers agreed to a 5-year, $75MM extension with second baseman, Ian Kinsler. Regardless of Profar, the Rangers are set in the middle infield for the present and future, not to mention up and coming middle infield prospects such as Luis Sardinas, whom are finding their way up many prospect rankings. The Rangers simply don’t appear to have an open spot for Jurickson Profar at the MLB level at his natural position(s), which brings us to this question:

What exactly is Jurickson Profar’s trade value?

Well, to properly assess a prospect’s trade value, one must assess the prospect’s toolset, his expected ceiling and floor, followed by his make up. There is a reason why Profar is the No. 1 rated prospect in all of baseball. To begin, Profar displays a full arsenal of average, to above-average tools across the board. Not a one of Profar’s tools are truly elite, but none of his tools are below average, which often times makes Profar one of the best baseball players on every diamond he plays upon. Secondly, Profar displays both an extremely high ceiling and floor, meaning that if Profar can develop into the peak of his talents, he could become a perennial MVP candidate or at worst, an above average middle infielder at the MLB level. Lastly, Profar has elite make up. There have been numerous write-ups describing Profar’s top-notch instincts and baseball IQ, which usually lends a major hand in predicting just how far a prospect can develop.

To put it simply, Profar is a scout’s dream: An exceptional prospect at a premium position with elite make up and highly projectable tools. Profar is the type of prospect that other teams would demand in a high-profile trade, such as the rumored, Stanton or Price scenarios. The Rangers do not have any needs for a middle infielder at the MLB level, but the team certainly has a need for a corner outfielder (Stanton) or a starting pitcher (Price).

Which brings us to the ultimate point of this post: Why the Rangers will not trade Jurickson Profar.

Obviously, holding onto Profar would imply that the Rangers will eventually be asking that Ian Kinsler and/or Mitch Moreland move positions in 2014. In this scenario, either Kinsler moves to left field in 2014 and Profar goes to second base, or Kinsler movies to first base with Moreland taking over in left field or right field, with Profar again taking over at second base. Logically, both of these moves do make sense but also do not make sense at the same time. It is rather clear however, that David Murphy and/or Nelson Cruz will not be in Texas in 2014, meaning that Ian Kinsler’s or Mitch Moreland’s bat in a COF position would be highly welcome, but then again, so would Giancarlo Stanton’s.

It is no secret that the Rangers have the assets to acquire players of Stanton and Price’s caliber, and that holding onto Jurickson Profar is probably not the decision with the biggest impact, but let us quickly look back at the Justin Upton rumblings during the offseason.

During the Winter Meetings, it was clear that Arizona intended to trade their young slugger, and right from the beginning, it was mentioned that Arizona coveted both of the Rangers’ shortstops in a potential deal, but Texas was extremely reluctant to deal Andrus or Profar and instead tried to build a package around Mike Olt. Remember, at the time it was speculated that Texas was simply posturing in an attempt to raise Andrus’ trade value, as it seemed extremely unlikely that the team would extend Andrus. Additionally, it made more financial sense to acquire a young, power hitter in Upton and go with a stud prospect at shortstop in Profar, whom would be making league minimum. Yet, the consistent dialogue coming from Jon Daniels was that the Rangers preferred to keep Andrus and Profar. Daniels also voiced the Rangers’ desire to extend Elvis Andrus, which indeed ended up happening (so much for that being nothing more than a posturing tactic).

Which brings us to this interesting quote from GM Jon Daniels when questioned on the possibility of extending Andrus:

Our preference would be to continue to have a good [thing] probably, meaning with Kinsler, Elvis and Profar, have three guys with two positions. We would love to extend Elvis. We extended Ian, obviously Jurickson is going to be here for some time, and we would love to extend Elvis.

If there is one thing that I’ve learned in all of my years of following Jon Daniels’ tenure as the Rangers’ GM, it is that when Daniels goes out of his way to say something, he usually means it. Daniels went out of his way to state the team’s desire to keep and extend Andrus, and it ended up happening. I don’t think it’s inconceivable that with the emergence of mega television deals in the game today and the affects that these deals have already had on the free agent market, that the Rangers are reluctant to trade Jurickson Profar. Obviously moving Kinsler to left field would lower his value, as his bat would probably be considered average for a COF, but then again, there aren’t many cheaper external alternatives in terms of the cost of cash and prospects and additionally, Kinsler would most certainly be an upgrade over David Murphy. It would essentially be a cost-effective, internal upgrade.

The Rangers certainly have the necessary motivations to trade Jurickson Profar, but given the way that the team has operated, I quite honestly don’t see such a trade ever materializing. As an organization, the Rangers view the year of 2015 as momentous (2015 is the year that the television deal begins). Anything between now and then is ultimately important. Take this quote from Rangers’ co-owner, Bob Simpson as evidence:

Success follows success. By 2015 the goal is that this team will be self-sustaining, but our payroll may be another 40 or 50 percent higher. So that will move you up to a level where you should field a great team year after year. We just need to bridge the gap [between now and the TV contract] to get this great franchise to permanent success.

This quote could imply one of many things, but to me, self-sustaining implies a team that develops its own talent. Jurickson Profar is the result of Texas’ scouting and developmental departments. Utilizing cheap, yet top-notch, young talent is what self-sustenance is all about. The Rangers have often employed the actions of a team with big market resources making decisions like a small market club. If anything, small market clubs don’t deal their No. 1 prospects. The Rangers will not trade Jurickson Profar because the Rangers aren’t wary of making the moves with the littlest impact, just take the Justin Upton “fiasco” as an example. The Rangers are primarily concerned with sustaining a winning organization, and Jurickson Profar is the type of player that provides incredible value for an organization. Profar is simply the kind of player that teams do not trade for anybody. Incidentally, David Price is a free agent after the 2015 season—Go figure.