This is Feliz’s first of three anticipated arbitration seasons, and the $2.9 million deal he received is just a mere $200K below his expected $3.1 million cost, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Barring an extension, Neftali Feliz is under contract with the Rangers through the 2015 season.

Feliz, Texas’ former flame-throwing closer turned starting pitcher before the 2012 season, produced 4.0 fWAR out of the bullpen between 2009 and 2011, accumulating better than a strikeout per inning (9.07) and a walk rate of 3.1/9 IP. Though he only pitched an abbreviated 2009, totaling 31.0 innings, he ranked 19th in all of baseball in pitching fWAR in the three-year period between ’09-’11. He’s an elite specimen out of the ‘pen.

Acknowledging that, the thought before the 2012 season was to capitalize on his value by transitioning him from closer-to-starter, much like the Rangers successfully accomplished in 2010 with C.J. Wilson, and 2011 with Alexi Ogando. The early returns were somewhat promising; his ERA was 3.16, despite an xFIP of 4.98, a SIERA of 4.67, and a BB rate of 4.85/9 IP. This data comes in the ridiculously small sample of 7 starts, so it’s debatable just how much it actually means.

He began a rehab stint into June and July, but never regained his form. He clearly was not the same pitcher he had been in his first three years, which began the whispers questioning if Feliz was broken. Or, even worse, injured.

He underwent Tommy John surgery in the middle of the summer, and isn’t expected to be back until August of 2013, at the earliest. It’s highly questionable if he will even throw one pitch for the Rangers next year, and if he does, we wonder if it will (a) be out of the bullpen, or (b) be effective enough to justify a significant role come postseason time. Right now, I expect (a) would be true, and am highly suspect about (b).

To that end, it should be a given that he won’t be able to produce enough value out of the bullpen in 2013 to justify the $2.9 million price tag bestowed upon him, but more importantly, we just need to make sure he’s healthy, and ready to go, by 2014.

If the 90%+ success rate of Tommy John surgeries holds true, then he should be a favorite to earn the 5th rotation spot year after next, joining him with Yu Darvish, newly-extended Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando, as part of one of the more formidable rotations in all of baseball.

First things first, we want Neftali Feliz’s arm to be OK. Secondly, we want him to be able to pitch again. Thirdly, we want him to begin throwing on a rehab assignment next year. Fourthly, we want him to be called up to the Major League team, hopefully in the midst of a playoff chase.

And lastly, we want a dominating 7-inning start out of Darvish, an 8-0 lead heading into the 8th, and a loud, raucous roar from the Arlington faithful once Neftali Feliz regains his rightful position in the Rangers bullpen.

This season appears to be more of the same. A shell game on the public front, while working to fortify holes at first base, in our bullpen and most obviously the one left by Josh Hamilton. I have made a reference to this before, that while re-signing Hamilton isn’t out of the question, they will try to re-create him (as was said about Jason Giambi in Moneyball) in the aggregate. What we do know about that is that we tried to deal with Atlanta for a shortstop and spin him to Arizona for Justin Upton. That whole scenario shows us that for at least the next season, we will see Profar and Andrus playing in Arlington. Again, a message behind the scenes to fans but more importantly to Elvis Andrus.

Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels
(photo from ESPN)

The last two years, outside of the Nathan signing, all of the action has occurred from the Winter Meetings forward. We have been disciplined in not letting the market dictate to us what we do but being deliberate in staying our own course.  Not great for fans, but very good for the people holding the cards. And for the success for the team on the field.

Moving parts include getting the final shot at Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli (allegedly) but also trying to eye the strategy of our rivals. Namely the Angels.  The Winter Meetings are coming up a week from today in Nashville. Unless something ridiculous happens this week, this will be where the magic happens.

Derek Holland-  I purposely left Derek Holland off the starter list on the starter board because if the Rangers don’t move him this off-season, I think Holland will be our long relief guy. Some Ranger writers have suggested that Scott Feldman will be back. I do not. While he was effective through mid-season out of the pen, he was rocked as a starter and ineffective in relief after that. Feldman had his own version of the yips and I believe Daniels and Company will see it as such. Keeping him on board is not an answer.

Tanner Scheppers- Scheppers had a decent second half of the season. He carried a 2.21 ERA and seemed to have harnessed his closer like stuff. He still gave up too many base runners via hit (.321 BA), but walked six while striking out 19 in 20 innings. He’s still learning, but at 25 has certainly earned a shot with the big league club this spring.

Robbie Ross- Ross was very good before the break and not very good after.  Ross ended up being used in very specialized situations in the second half as well as opposed to often before the break. At 23, it was a lot to take in and you would hope that he learned as much, if not more, after the break than he did in before.  He will be in the mix for a spot in the pen and I wouldn’t rule out his name being in the mix as a dark horse candidate for the back end of the rotation.

Joe Nathan- Nathan was one of those closers, before the All Star break, when you just knew you had the game in the bag. What happened to that guy? After the break and especially in September he appeared to be laboring a lot more than even July. Was it the Texas heat? Was it his surgically repaired arm? Whatever it was, it was a regular fright fest when he entered the game in a save situation.  This is where the inner circle has more information than those of us catching the game on TV. If that was the new normal, we may have been watching Mike Adams replacement while we search for a new closer.

Not a lot of a sure thing there with Alexi Ogando moving into the rotation. Neftali Feliz will be out most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. A look at the free agent market has some possibilities, but no easy answers. Let’s put these names on the Big Board: Mike Adams (probably expensive and showed some wear and tear late), Jonathan Broxton (nightmarish end to his season),  Joakim Soria (wants to be a Yankee),  Rafael Soriano (looking for big payday). All but Adams are former closers and still leave holes in our pen.  Also throw on the board the names with less curb appeal, who can get the job done.  Jeremy Affeldt, Jason Grilli or Kyle Farnsworth. There are others. If we’re reloading, we certainly need to add some names from the outside to make our pen stronger. It won’t look near the same as 2012. Next up, our over-stocked infield.