Do you feel lucky, punk? Well, Do ya?

When I transcribed my last article, I mentioned at decent length of the (at the time) impending series between the AL West’s 2nd and 3rd place foes, the A’s and Angels, respectively. I felt a pompous twinge running through my veins as my brain flowed impulses down the nerves in my arms into my fingers, releasing them onto the screen you see before you, for the two great villains in our vaunted West squared off, while we, the mighty Texas Rangers, instead got to feast on the lowly Wigwam-inhabitants of Cleveland. It’s such a mischievous feeling. And I’m smiling like the Grinch, at least below the surface.

You see, each time the Rangers lose and Oakland or Anaheim wins, media outlets from ESPN to MLB Network throw out those buzzwords used to evoke some sort of emotion from the pit of your stomach. You know, the ones that say, “The Rangers lead shrinks another game,” or “The A’s inch that much closer to the first-place Rangers.” But what’s the point? Well, it works two-fold: (1) It plants a small speckle of doubt in the minds of Rangers fans, and (2) it gives a false sense of hope to the team that’s chasing, making sure they’ll still pay attention down the stretch, and, most importantly for whichever network, keeps you tuned in to listen to the drivel.

And, as ridiculous as it may sound, Rangers fans have grown so spoiled of their own team that a 3-game lead is hardly enough for them. We’re used to the five, six, seven-game cushion, so every game lost in the standings seems much more pivotal. Do you remember being a Rangers fan of, say, five years ago, when we’d pick up a game and be within 4 or 5 of the division lead at the end of May? Even ESPN would say, “Maybe the Rangers have a little something cooking,” and it would make you want to keep watching. Hell, maybe the Rangers really do have some magic in them. Just, not really. Reality sets in. Reality always wins.

In my innocuous evaluation of the A’s-Angels series, I at no point opined about which team I was hoping would win. I made my best effort to be objective and let the facts of the matter speak for themselves. It’s like the show Breaking Bad: It’s more powerful to show than to tell, and inasmuch as I’d love to rant and rave about my perpetual hatred for the Angels, or impose an untoward set of conclusions as to why the Athletics are only a lucky team, I’ve remained steadfast in the belief that the success of the Rangers is all that’s really important.

Well, until now.

The A’s have taken the first two games of the four-game series, and I hope they kick the shit out of them in games 3 and 4 as well. I spent too many years of my childhood looking up to the Angels in the standings, listening to their entitled, jackass fans here in California tell me how great they were and how the Rangers were nothing but the ugly stepchild in the division. We’re now in 2012, and the Rangers — not the Angels — are the ones coming off back-to-back World Series appearances. I’ve gone through enough suck; now I’m the one who’s entitled to be a little cocky.

The Rangers have 6 games left against the Angels, and 7 against the Athletics (all coming within the final 10 games of the season). Call in the goons; let the A’s do some of our dirty work for us. They pose as much less of a threat in a head-to-head regular season matchup, and I’d rather revel in the misery of the Angels in a year they went all in, mortgaging part of their future to acquire Zach Greinke, giving a franchise-crippling, bogus contract to Albert Pujols, and letting the AL MVP, Mike Trout, enjoy the playoffs back at home in New Jersey.

And I was in such a good mood before I started writing this.

Oakland finished last season 74-88, a svelte 22 games behind the AL West Champion Rangers. In the offseason they traded arguably their two most precious pitching talents, Trevor Cahill (to Arizona) and Gio Gonzalez (to Washington), and by all accounts reaped impressive prospect packages in return. Guys like Jarrod Parker (RHP) and Derek Norris (C), who are on their current 25-man roster, and upper-tier talents like Collin Cowgill (OF) and Brad Peacock (RHP), currently in AAA, are some of those. Other than the international signing of Yoenis Cespedes (who looks like a future star), the most underrated move was their dealing of closer Andrew Bailey to the Red Sox, who, among others, netted them their best player this season, Josh Reddick (4.3 fWAR).

A nifty photo of the A's in yellow uniforms

Despite these dealings, the direction of the franchise seemed more geared for 2013 and beyond than legitimate, tangible 2012 success. On paper, the A’s appeared like they’d be in a dead chase with Seattle for the worst record in the division, and, if they were lucky, avoiding the worst overall record in the American League. But, as Kenny Mayne used to say, games aren’t played on paper, they’re played inside little television screens.

On June 1st, the A’s found themselves at 22-30, a full 9 games behind the Rangers. And this morning, as it stands, the A’s are within 4 games of the division lead.

They sport one of the league’s worst offenses, standing 21st in runs (4.15/game), 29th in batting average (.234), and 26th in on-base percentage (.307). Their pitching, on the other hand, has been elite compared to league average. They are 3rd in ERA (3.45), 4th in WHIP (1.22), and 5th in batting average against (.243). One parallel they have with the other main American League surprise, Baltimore, is an abundance of victories in walk-off fashion or of the one-run variety, meaning a great deal of luck can be attributed to their success on the season.

But all that aside, the main focus is: What kind of impact does this have on the Rangers? I think all of us expected a two-horse race featuring our pseudo-rivals from Anaheim, who top-to-bottom possess much more talent than Oakland but have greatly underachieved, and, from a more realistic standpoint, were probably overrated to begin with, given their light spread of talent at most positions excluding Mike Trout in center field, Albert Pujols at 1st base, and the top of their rotation. Oakland has one of the strongest pitching staffs in all of baseball, highlighting opportune individual performances from their offense on any given day.

Do I expect Oakland to survive another month this close in the standings? No. However, whether it be the luck dragons being on their side or just a miraculous run of baseball, I’m glad they aren’t as far back in the division race as the Angels, for it doesn’t allow the Rangers to play a lackadaisical brand of baseball down the stretch. It’s evident that Oakland is playing above their heads, but that doesn’t dismiss the reality they’ve placed the Rangers in, being just four games ahead of them in the West.

The West will be won in September, where teams play against their divisional foes more than anyone else, and, starting for the Rangers on September 14th, exclusively against their own division. I’ve outlined the improbability of Oakland actually overtaking Texas, as the odds are pretty slim, but if baseball taught us anything last year it’s that no lead is truly safe until the postseason commences. We can expect the division lead to stretch out from now until the end of September, but if it doesn’t, we can’t say we didn’t see Oakland creeping up on us.

Am I scared of Oakland? Again, that’s a no. But they certainly have my attention.

A picture that has nothing to do with the article

A couple weeks ago I posited a breakdown of the remaining scenarios and what it would take for either of the AL West’s 2nd or 3rd place team to take the divisional throne away from the two-time champion Rangers, and this article will simply be a recalibration now that we’ve moved ahead in time.

After 127 games, the Rangers are 75-52. The Athletics have played one fewer game; the Angels one game more.

If the Rangers finished the season at a .500 clip (for the sake of keeping things interesting I’ll say 17-18 rather than 18-17), they’d finish with a record of 92-70. For the A’s to win the division, they would have to go 24-12 (.666); for the Angels to win it, they’d have to finish 27-7 (.794).

If the Rangers finished the year playing .550 ball, they’d finish 94-68; Oakland would need to go 26-10 (.722) to overtake the crown; the Angels would have to finish 29-5 (.853).

If the Rangers finished with a .600 WP, they’d wind up 96-66. For Oakland to leapfrog Texas, they’d have to finish 28-8 (.778); for the Angels to win the division, they would have to play at an impeccable-esque 31-3 rate (.912).

So unless you find the Rangers to be a below-mediocre ball club from now until the season concludes, they are about as much of a lock to be playing in the postseason as there is out there. Obviously setting the bar at a .500 average from now until then would be considered a worst-case situation, but even at that it would take an extraordinary stretch of baseball from either of Oakland or Anaheim, and right now each of those two teams is focused enough just trying to hold their weight in the race for the second Wild Card.