Oct 24, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello (48) delivers a pitch during the eighth inning of game one of the 2012 World Series against the San Francisco Giants at AT

Prior to his injury, Martín Pérez appeared to be the favorite to win the No. 5 spot in the Texas rotation, but as it stands now, the Rangers’ best options for the No. 5 spot in the starting rotation have come down to Nick Tepesch and Robbie Ross. Ross, whom was the Rangers’ primary LHP out of the bullpen in 2012, would appear to be the odd man out in the battle for the No. 5 spot in the rotation had LHPs Joe Ortiz and Michael Kirkman not displayed such strong Springs.

Colby Lewis, who missed the majority of the 2012 season due to a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow, appears to be ready to return the Rangers in mid-to-late May and would ideally slide into the No. 5 spot in the rotation, thusly bumping either Tepesch or Ross from the role, but there are obvious questions regarding how effective Lewis will be after rehabilitation, which is evidently giving the Rangers some reason to evaluate external options to fill out the rotation, which is where Rick Porcello enters the equation.

Based on WAR, Porcello is coming off of his strongest season to date. The young righty posted 2.9 WAR with a FIP of 3.91 in 176.1 innings in 2012. Porcello’s 2012 ERA of 4.59 is obviously not awe-inspiring, but don’t forget to take into account the Tigers’ weak infield defense. Porcello is a groundball pitcher and given the discrepancy between Porcello’s FIP and his ERA, it is evident that the Tigers’ weak infield defense is to blame. The Rangers on the other hand have one of the stronger infield defenses in all of baseball. So with Porcello pitching in front of a strong infield defense like the one in Texas, his ERA would correspondingly correlate more to his FIP, making Porcello a very solid No. 3 starter on a playoff team, with room to improve, given that he’s still only 24.

Rick Porcello is obviously a good fit for the Rangers, given his propensity to get groundballs, but what exactly would the Tigers want for him?

Rumors seem to indicate that the Tigers have interest in the Rangers’ Leury Garcia and Nick Tepesch, but I would think that the Tigers would want another prospect in order to agree to a deal. Perhaps a 3-player plackage centered around Luis Sardinas gets a deal done, and if that is the case, it would be a very solid deal on both sides. The Rangers would be acquiring a young and durable groundball pitcher and the Tigers would be acquiring a defensive whiz shortstop in Sardinas, to replace Jhonny Peralta.

Rick Porcello would provide the Rangers with a durable No. 3-4 starter, which sounds decent, until one actually realizes how rare a commodity that true No. 3 starters are in baseball. So there is obvious motivation for the Rangers to attempt to swing a deal, especially given the uncertainty at the bottom of the Rangers’ rotation, and as with any trade rumors, most of this conjecture depends on the Tigers’ asking price, but the Rangers are an ideal fit for Porcello’s services and the Rangers also seem to match up pretty well with the Tigers as trade partners, given the Rangers’ strong middle-infield depth, so only time will tell.

There’s a specific give and take with the state of happiness, and it’s a product of nature I do not yet believe I’ve fully submitted to. When I’m happy, I don’t have an edge; I can’t muster the same palpable creativity as when I’m upset about things most people don’t even think or care about. I’ll be turning 23 in two weeks, and in all that time I’ve yet to find a balance. The problem is, I’m afraid if I ever do meet an equilibrium with regards to my ecstatic joy and skittishly sorrow-filled relationship with the universe, that it in turn means I will have lost my edge and creative juices. That’s a pretty substantial sacrifice for someone like myself, who already likes the way he is.

With that said, even though it pains me to mention the Rangers’ signing of RHP Derek Lowe, it’s not the type of pain where I could reel off a thousand words in a half-hour. So that’s good.

If Lowe makes the Major League roster (which at this point appears like a certainty), he will earn $1.25 million in 2013 (per Jeff Wilson’s Twitter), and incentives could push that figure up to nearly $3 million (per Evan Grant’s Twitter). However, even though Martin Perez was recently injured, it’s believed that Derek Lowe is on the roster to be in the bullpen. To that end, he’s probably a decent investment, because Justin Grimm — if he is to be the 5th starter — probably shouldn’t be banked on for very many “quality” starts.

From a WAR perspective, even if Lowe manages to earn the entirety of his incentives ($1.7 million + 1.25 million salary = $2.95 million), that’s the FIP-wins equivalent to +0.6 WAR. It’s doable. (And that’s given that each Win Above Replacement is worth $5 million.) Anything over that would generate surplus value in the WAR/$ paradigm.

Was I thrilled with the $1.25 million base salary? Not particularly. I may be splitting hairs — because in the broader scope what is $1.25 million out of a $130 million budget? — but Derek Lowe was not a sought-after commodity. Like Kyle Lohse, it was March 6th, and Lowe remained unsigned. The difference between the two pitchers is that Lohse probably has a couple decent seasons left in him, and Lowe should have kicked the bucket on his baseball career years ago.

With Lowe on roster, it effectively ends the Rangers’ pursuits of either Kyle Lohse or Rick Porcello. I can’t say I’m all that disappointed, but Derek Lowe doesn’t exactly excite me, either. At all. The Rangers appear committed to using a scrub in the 5th rotation spot until Colby Lewis returns from injury.

To sum this article up in a sentence: “Rangers make another boring, cost-effective signing that will probably help the team.”

It did, however, get me thinking about a scenario where Rick Porcello was the 5th starter in the Rangers’ rotation, at least until Colby Lewis returns from injury.

To keep matters simple (if not mildly realistic), for the context of this hypothetical reality, Porcello will be traded to the Rangers, and in return the Tigers will receive SS prospect Luis Sardinas, and a lesser prospect that isn’t worth much.

To begin the season, that would give the Rangers a rotation of Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Rick Porcello.

At the end of May, let’s assume Colby Lewis returns from injury and is good to go. If we also assume none of the five Rangers’ starters are injured, that leaves us with 6 pitchers and only 5 spots to put them.

To create equity within the rotation, that would likely mean one of the following scenarios needs to come true:

• Alexi Ogando for some reason struggles in the rotation, and the team inevitably feels best putting him back in the bullpen. This gives us a rotation of Darvish, Harrison, Holland, Porcello and Lewis.
• Ogando and Porcello each out-pitch Derek Holland. In this situation, the Rangers probably look to trade Holland, because I can’t imagine they would waste a year of his value pitching in a low- to mid-leverage relief role.
• Ogando and Holland each show more upside than Porcello, and Porcello is flipped elsewhere for a prospect to compensate for the loss of Sardinas. The rotation would then be what everyone expects it to look like in June: Darvish, Harrison, Holland, Ogando and Lewis.

Another positive to acquiring Rick Porcello would be the marginally added flexibility of not needing to bring Colby Lewis back prematurely. If we do not get Porcello, and Justin Grimm struggles pitching out of the 5-spot, it would stand to reason that both Lewis and the Rangers’ brain trust considers bumping his return schedule to satisfy the need. With Porcello in the last spot instead of Grimm, Texas would be able to take its time with Lewis.

Of course, one often-used and often-true cliche is “you can never have enough pitching”. There’s a reason for that. Pitchers go down with injuries — ranging from fluky to catastrophic — all the goddamn time. Right now, it’s safe to say the Rangers are banking on quite a bit from Darvish, Harrison, Holland and Ogando. If any of those four go down with a ghastly injury that stretches over an extended period of time, our odds of making the postseason dramatically alter (and not in a good way). Having an extra option like Porcello provides both insurance towards a potential injury, as well as a valuable trade chip. His addition would theoretically act two-fold.

Those opposing this plan ask, “Why would we give up a solid prospect like Sardinas, for example, for a 6th starting pitcher?”

I only have two reasons:

(1) Rick Porcello isn’t chopped liver on the mound. In the last three years he’s generated 2.0, 2.7 and 2.9 fWAR, respectively, and brings with him a career 52.3% ground ball rate. If not elite, his GB% is highly, highly, above-average. His career ERA (4.55) is nothing to write home about, though his xFIP (4.10) suggests his ERA should be about a half-run better.

The reason? It’s no secret he plays in front of the worst defensive infield in baseball, featuring Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder on either corner, and the inept Jhonny Peralta at shortstop. If you ask me, bringing in a 24 year-old whose career appears to be trending upward, and having him pitch in front of three plus defenders — Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Ian Kinsler — seems like a pretty decent idea.

(2) The goal in executing a trade for Rick Porcello is pretty basic; if everything works out according to plan with Colby Lewis, then Porcello becomes trade bait to a team desperate for a starting pitcher. Perhaps a team willing to overpay for a starting pitcher. If he were to bring back a prospect of the same level — or better — than Luis Sardinas, then the Porcello investment would be a successful one. Particularly if he gives us a solid two months of pitching.

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To keep it to fewer words, this is essentially what I’m saying:

• No, I don’t think the Rangers will make a serious push to get Porcello, mainly because I don’t think the Tigers would give him up for only Luis Sardinas. I can’t see how the Tigers could justify to their fan base that they are giving up a 24 year-old former first round pick for Sardinas, a shortstop who’s yet to see AA, and who isn’t on any top-100 lists that I’m aware of. Perception matters.
• No, I don’t think the Ranger fan base is particularly thrilled with adding Porcello. I can only assume the reasoning sounds something like, “He’s not even good enough to be one of the 5-best pitchers on his own team.” If you look at the bare bones, three arbitration years of Porcello are much more valuable than however much money he will be making per year. If absolutely nothing else, he would be a pitcher we could gain surplus value from, and if we need to trade him, he would be a valuable commodity on the open market.
• So long as it didn’t cost us the cream of our farm system (Profar, Olt, Gallo, Guzman, Mazara, Beras, Alfaro), I would be on board with pulling the trigger. Detroit has to do something with Porcello, in all likelihood, because they can’t go into the year with a 6-man rotation. That gives the Rangers more leverage in trade discussions.