May 20, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman Jurickson Profar (13) throws to first during the game against the Oakland Athletics at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Oakland won 9-2. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

So that brings us to this: Are there any true motivations for the Rangers to trade such a prospect of Profar’s caliber?

Absolutely.

Just this April, the Rangers signed current shortstop, Elvis Andrus, to an 8-year, $120MM extension, and last April, the Rangers agreed to a 5-year, $75MM extension with second baseman, Ian Kinsler. Regardless of Profar, the Rangers are set in the middle infield for the present and future, not to mention up and coming middle infield prospects such as Luis Sardinas, whom are finding their way up many prospect rankings. The Rangers simply don’t appear to have an open spot for Jurickson Profar at the MLB level at his natural position(s), which brings us to this question:

What exactly is Jurickson Profar’s trade value?

Well, to properly assess a prospect’s trade value, one must assess the prospect’s toolset, his expected ceiling and floor, followed by his make up. There is a reason why Profar is the No. 1 rated prospect in all of baseball. To begin, Profar displays a full arsenal of average, to above-average tools across the board. Not a one of Profar’s tools are truly elite, but none of his tools are below average, which often times makes Profar one of the best baseball players on every diamond he plays upon. Secondly, Profar displays both an extremely high ceiling and floor, meaning that if Profar can develop into the peak of his talents, he could become a perennial MVP candidate or at worst, an above average middle infielder at the MLB level. Lastly, Profar has elite make up. There have been numerous write-ups describing Profar’s top-notch instincts and baseball IQ, which usually lends a major hand in predicting just how far a prospect can develop.

To put it simply, Profar is a scout’s dream: An exceptional prospect at a premium position with elite make up and highly projectable tools. Profar is the type of prospect that other teams would demand in a high-profile trade, such as the rumored, Stanton or Price scenarios. The Rangers do not have any needs for a middle infielder at the MLB level, but the team certainly has a need for a corner outfielder (Stanton) or a starting pitcher (Price).

Which brings us to the ultimate point of this post: Why the Rangers will not trade Jurickson Profar.

Obviously, holding onto Profar would imply that the Rangers will eventually be asking that Ian Kinsler and/or Mitch Moreland move positions in 2014. In this scenario, either Kinsler moves to left field in 2014 and Profar goes to second base, or Kinsler movies to first base with Moreland taking over in left field or right field, with Profar again taking over at second base. Logically, both of these moves do make sense but also do not make sense at the same time. It is rather clear however, that David Murphy and/or Nelson Cruz will not be in Texas in 2014, meaning that Ian Kinsler’s or Mitch Moreland’s bat in a COF position would be highly welcome, but then again, so would Giancarlo Stanton’s.

It is no secret that the Rangers have the assets to acquire players of Stanton and Price’s caliber, and that holding onto Jurickson Profar is probably not the decision with the biggest impact, but let us quickly look back at the Justin Upton rumblings during the offseason.

During the Winter Meetings, it was clear that Arizona intended to trade their young slugger, and right from the beginning, it was mentioned that Arizona coveted both of the Rangers’ shortstops in a potential deal, but Texas was extremely reluctant to deal Andrus or Profar and instead tried to build a package around Mike Olt. Remember, at the time it was speculated that Texas was simply posturing in an attempt to raise Andrus’ trade value, as it seemed extremely unlikely that the team would extend Andrus. Additionally, it made more financial sense to acquire a young, power hitter in Upton and go with a stud prospect at shortstop in Profar, whom would be making league minimum. Yet, the consistent dialogue coming from Jon Daniels was that the Rangers preferred to keep Andrus and Profar. Daniels also voiced the Rangers’ desire to extend Elvis Andrus, which indeed ended up happening (so much for that being nothing more than a posturing tactic).

Which brings us to this interesting quote from GM Jon Daniels when questioned on the possibility of extending Andrus:

Our preference would be to continue to have a good [thing] probably, meaning with Kinsler, Elvis and Profar, have three guys with two positions. We would love to extend Elvis. We extended Ian, obviously Jurickson is going to be here for some time, and we would love to extend Elvis.

If there is one thing that I’ve learned in all of my years of following Jon Daniels’ tenure as the Rangers’ GM, it is that when Daniels goes out of his way to say something, he usually means it. Daniels went out of his way to state the team’s desire to keep and extend Andrus, and it ended up happening. I don’t think it’s inconceivable that with the emergence of mega television deals in the game today and the affects that these deals have already had on the free agent market, that the Rangers are reluctant to trade Jurickson Profar. Obviously moving Kinsler to left field would lower his value, as his bat would probably be considered average for a COF, but then again, there aren’t many cheaper external alternatives in terms of the cost of cash and prospects and additionally, Kinsler would most certainly be an upgrade over David Murphy. It would essentially be a cost-effective, internal upgrade.

The Rangers certainly have the necessary motivations to trade Jurickson Profar, but given the way that the team has operated, I quite honestly don’t see such a trade ever materializing. As an organization, the Rangers view the year of 2015 as momentous (2015 is the year that the television deal begins). Anything between now and then is ultimately important. Take this quote from Rangers’ co-owner, Bob Simpson as evidence:

Success follows success. By 2015 the goal is that this team will be self-sustaining, but our payroll may be another 40 or 50 percent higher. So that will move you up to a level where you should field a great team year after year. We just need to bridge the gap [between now and the TV contract] to get this great franchise to permanent success.

This quote could imply one of many things, but to me, self-sustaining implies a team that develops its own talent. Jurickson Profar is the result of Texas’ scouting and developmental departments. Utilizing cheap, yet top-notch, young talent is what self-sustenance is all about. The Rangers have often employed the actions of a team with big market resources making decisions like a small market club. If anything, small market clubs don’t deal their No. 1 prospects. The Rangers will not trade Jurickson Profar because the Rangers aren’t wary of making the moves with the littlest impact, just take the Justin Upton “fiasco” as an example. The Rangers are primarily concerned with sustaining a winning organization, and Jurickson Profar is the type of player that provides incredible value for an organization. Profar is simply the kind of player that teams do not trade for anybody. Incidentally, David Price is a free agent after the 2015 season—Go figure.

Aug 23, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington (38) takes out relief pitcher Tanner Scheppers (52) during the ninth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Rangers Ballpark. Texas won 10-6. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Here is a quote from David Hill of  RaysColoredGlasses.com on how the Rays do it:

“The Rays have done an excellent job over the past few years in locating pitchers that struggled elsewhere and turning them into serviceable, and often time much more than that, pieces of the bullpen. Pitchers such as Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, and Fernando Rodney may have been on their last chances at a major league job, yet produced far beyond their expectations…”

Fernando Rodney, Joel Peralta, Jake McGee, Burke Badenhop, J.P. Howell, Cesar Ramos, Wade Davis, and Kyle Farnsworth were the leaders of Joe Maddon‘s bullpen. Doesn’t seem very good on paper. You can probably only picture a couple of them actually playing, but all of them pitched quite a bit for the Rays last year.

Rodney had one of the best seasons for a reliever I have ever witnessed. Where did he come from? Where was he hiding? Well, friends,  he was hiding behind his alarmingly high walk rate. In 2011 Rodney walked nearly eight batters per nine innings. Last year Rodney walked less than two per nine. All it took was some insight and instruction.

When it comes to the Rangers, there is no shortage of pitching coaches or “advisers” that know how to coach. I’m fairly confident Fernando would’ve had close to the same success in Arlington as he did in St. Petersburgh. So… what’s the point? Okay when looking at the Rays’ pen nearly every single pitcher had a career year. In other words, Andrew Friedman pulled the veterans from where they were to resurrect them in Florida. Even the youngsters had mid-4 to low-5 ERA’s  and after a season in the “Trop” all was better.

The stat that seemed to trend was walks per nine innings. Rodney’s BB/9 in 2011 was 7.9, last year’s was 1.8. Jake McGee‘s BB/9 in 2011 was 3.9, last year’s was 1.8. Burke Badenhop‘s was 3.4 in 2011 compared to 1.7 in 2012. J.P. Howell‘s was 5.3 in 2011 compared to 3.9 in 2012. In 2011 Cesar Ramos‘ BB/9 was 5.2 and in 2012 his BB/9 dropped to 3.0. Wade Davis just learned how to flat out pitch.

Tanner Scheppers,  Michael Kirkman, Joe Nathan, and  Robbie Ross or Martin Perez will be back…. Mark Lowe, Scott Feldman, Koji Uehara, Mike Adams and Roy Oswalt are gone. They will be replaced with guys like Jason Frasor, Josh Lindblom, Joakim Soria, Jeff Beliveau, Collin Balester and Cory Burns. This year’s bullpen payroll should be about 5-8 million dollars cheaper than last year’s.

The Rangers are hoping their strategy will work out exactly the same for them as it did for the Rays. With names like Frasor, Soria, Balester, Lindblom, Burns and Beliveau… the game plan has officially shifted in Arlington. Granted, Soria and Frasor have been good pros for most of their careers, they now undeniably enter RBiA with chips on their shoulders (or elbows). There is no doubt the Maddux brothers can piece together a good bullpen with the talent they will be working with in Arizona this spring.

For all of that, I am impressed. I don’t know if it’s true we held up everybody else, but I do know that we had a ton of things we could have done (in the name of getting something done) but did not. It appeared Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels wanted everything just so.

photo credit: Dallas Morning News

If you check my mini-bio to the upper right, you know I have seen every general manager the Rangers have employed.  I do not remember any of them having this much restraint in not moving Elvis Andrus or giving Hamilton or Greinke a ridiculous payday.  That’s not to say we won’t, but for once, we are letting the market come to us.

We won’t be able to tell (until the off-season is over) if these actions are leading us to the Promised Land. But the one thing that it tells me after all of these years is that we are finally and once and for all, in this for the long haul. Every move is calculated as to whether it fits the big picture.

If you are a Ranger fan, you have to only look back to John Hart and Tom Hicks to see the definition of the opposite of this strategy.  Even though nothing happened (as I write this) we should all celebrate the Rangers for dictating what is happening in the off-season.