Texas Rangers: Which Free Agent Third Baseman is the Best Fit?
The Texas Rangers will undoubtedly add a third baseman this offseason, as they look to sign impact players on their way into Globe Life Field.
The Texas Rangers are in the third base market and from all signs, are shopping in the high-end section. This free agent class boasts three quality third base options in Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas. That group rangers from the MVP levels of Rendon, to the high-value production of Moustakas. With three good choices to pursue, which third baseman is the best fit for the Rangers?
Anthony Rendon
If the Rangers are shopping in the high-end section. Rendon is the most expensive item in that section. The Houston-native is coming off a fantastic season with the Nationals that resulted in a World Series ring. He was a finalist for the NL MVP award and was an elite hitter all year. Rendon finished 2019 with a .319 average, 1.010 OPS and 34 homers. He posted a 7.0 fWAR which would’ve topped the 2019 Rangers by a fair margin.
At just 29-years old come 2020 Opening Day, it’s safe to say that we won’t see a large drop in production from Rendon anytime soon. He’s the premium position player out there and represents the upper tier of free agents alongside Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. That premium also means he come with a high price tag. FanGraphs has Rendon’s predicted contract at seven years, and around $210 million. That’s a hefty price tag but it would give the Rangers an elite player for years to come.
Texas doesn’t seem too inclined to hand out deals beyond five years which could turn them off. Plus, the Rangers have multiple third base prospects who look on the track to be Major League ready in the next couple of years including their two first round picks from this past draft, Josh Jung and Davis Wendzel. Will the Rangers decide to not block their top prospect in Jung at third or will they opt for the already proven commodity in Rendon?
Josh Donaldson
While Donaldson wasn’t an MVP finalist this year, he has won the award in the past. After signing a one-year deal with the Braves, Donaldson hits the free agent market again and this time with increased value. The 34-year old hit .259 with a .900 OPS and 37 homers in Atlanta last year. His 4.9 fWAR demonstrates his value and while he isn’t quite Anthony Rendon level, he’s not a bargain option either.
Donaldson perhaps fits into the Rangers timeline better than Rendon and could help them avoid giving out a massive six or seven year contract which they loathe. At 34, Donaldson is projected to get a three or four year deal worth between $22-23 million per year. Not cheap, but cheaper than Rendon and he’d be wrapping up his deal about the time Josh Jung is ready to take his place at third base.
Donaldson creates fewer personnel issues for Texas and could save some money for other free agents or a Joey Gallo extension. Donaldson feels like the most likely, but at 34, he’s no longer on the upswing in his career.
Mike Moustakas
Moustakas is a free agent that isn’t generating tons of buzz, but only because he’s in a free agent class with the guys mentioned above. Moustakas quietly been one of the most consistent third basemen in the league over the past few years. Last year, he hit .254 for the Brewers posting an .845 to go along with 35 home runs.
Of the three, he probably is the cheapest but his 2.8 fWAR shows he still is a valuable player. He’s in between Rendon and Donaldson age-wise having just turned 31 in September. Of the three, he also probably is the cheapest with projected deals lingering around the two or three year mark and paying under $15 million per year.
While that looks like great value and it is, for Texas, Moustakas would add yet another left-handed bat to an already overloaded lineup. If the Rangers brought in Moustakas, they would have to offload some of their left-handed bats to even make the contract worth it. A Moustakas signing would check a lot of boxes for the Rangers but feels the most unlikely unless other moves are made.
Verdict
The best fit this offseason for Texas feels like Josh Donaldson. As much as I’d love to see Anthony Rendon in Arlington next season, the contract numbers don’t fall in line with what I think Texas is comfortable paying right now. With numerous holes that need to be taken care of on their roster heading into next season, Donaldson allows you to get a very productive player in, that doesn’t lock you up financially for the better part of the next decade. He’d become one of the best bats in the Texas lineup and would be exceptional at third base defensively.
Donaldson isn’t by any means safe, but the Rangers had pretty good success the last time they signed a veteran third baseman to a hefty contract and I think they opt to test that once again.