Brewers vs. Rangers prediction and odds for Saturday, Aug.19 (Target OVER on Saturday)

Why the over is our best bet for Brewers vs. Rangers.

Aug 18, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien (2) bats against the
Aug 18, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien (2) bats against the / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

The Brewers knocked off the Rangers in a thrilling 9-8 game on Friday night to start this weekend series, can we expect more fireworks on Saturday?

The Rangers will look to keep pace in the AL West with wins against a fellow division leader in the Brewers on Saturday, but will need its pitching to show up by way of right hander Dane Dunning, who has been a key cog in the rotation this season. Can he hold off the Brewers bats?

Let's dive into the odds and find a best bet:

Brewers vs. Rangers odds, run line and total

Brewers vs. Rangers prediction and pick

I'm targeting the over in this one as I expect similar offensive production to Friday night's matchup.

While Freddy Peralta comes in in good form for the Brewers, his numbers have dropped on the road relative to at home. The flame throwing right hander's ERA goes from 3.79 at home to 4.45 on the road while also walking far more batters. Peralta's walk rate jumps on the road quite a bit, going from 7% to over 10%.

Against a Rangers offense that is efficient at the plate, second in OPS against right handers, I believe we see Peralta take a step back after pitching so well since the All-Star break, giving us a break on this total.

However, Dunning has been a regression candidate all season. He has pitched to a 3.10 ERA all year, but he's littered with negative indicators, including a 4.35 xERA and a low strikeout rate of less than seven per nine innings. Considering Dunning isn't punching batters out, he is going to be in a precarious position inside the hitter friendly Globe Life Field.

While the Brewers offense is bottom third in several major hitting categories such as slugging percentage, the team should have the ball in play often against Dunning.

I'm going to take advantage of the low total and back the over, expecting another high scoring affair.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.