Rangers vs. Padres prediction and odds for Saturday, July 29 (How to wager on total)

The Texas Rangers are looking to remain atop the American League West on Saturday against the San Diego Padres. 

San Diego is in desperate need of a playoff push in the 2023 season, especially with the trade deadline looming. 

One way for that to happen will be if ace Yu Darvish can get back to his normal self after a rough start in 2023. He’s currently 7-7 with a 4.80 ERA. 

Martin Perez (8-3, 4.91 ERA) gets the ball for the Rangers as he looks to find his All-Star form from the 2022 season. 

Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for this contest: 

Rangers vs. Padres odds, run line and total

Rangers vs. Padres prediction and pick

Usually, taking an over in a game that Darvish is pitching would be a foolish move, but the Padres right-hander has not been his same self in 2023. 

Not only has Darvish pitched to a 4.80 ERA this season, but he’s really struggled over his last 11 starts. 

Over that stretch, Darvish’s numbers are far from ace material, and he gave up seven earned runs in just 4.1 innings of work his last time out. 

Yu Darvish’s last 11 starts

• 58.2 innings pitched
• 5.98 ERA
• 65 hits
• 22 walks
• 39 earned runs
• 11 home runs allowed

That simply won’t get it done against a Texas lineup that is No. 2 in Major League Baseball in OPS this season. 

However, the reason I like the OVER more than the Rangers in this spot is because Perez has been equally as bad. 

After a strong first month, Perez has a 6.13 ERA and 6.01 Fielding Independent Pitching since the start of May. 

The veteran left-hander has led the team to a 9-4 record in his last 13 starts, but it’s mainly been because of the team giving him solid run support night in and night out. 

I’ll bank on both offenses getting to these starters on Saturday night. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.