Premature Rangers Projections – Offense

Adrian Beltre (AP Photo)

Adrian Beltre (AP Photo)

Now that the Rangers have gone out and gotten Shin-Soo Choo, I figured it was a good time to start prematurely projecting what the team will look like production wise in 2014. I know it is not even Christmas yet, but hey, I love lists. Call it my weakness, or call it a football Sunday where all I think about it baseball.

I will start with the line up and what I am going to do is take the last four seasons of production from these guys (from baseball reference of course) and project what I think the team will do. This is mostly for my own amusement, but I hope you enjoy it as well.

1. Shin-Soo Choo – 150 games, .282/.385/.444/.830 line with 20 home runs, 74 RBI,  87 walks and 138 strikeouts.

Choo has played in 144, 85, 155 and 154 games over the last four seasons, so he played an average of 134.5 games a season. If we count out 2011 where he was injured, he played an average of 151. We, for the sake of this argument, are going to assume he will be healthy.

2. Elvis Andrus – 153 games, .275/.342/.343/.684 line with 3 home runs, 56 RBI, 57 walks and 76 strikeouts.

Keep an eye on Elvis RBI total, it has been going up every season since 2010.

3. Prince Fielder – 161 games, .288/.398/.506/.903 line with 31 home runs, 104 RBI, 95 walks and 111 strikeouts.

4. Adrian Beltre – 148 games, .313/.357/.546/.903 line with 30 home runs, 100 RBI, 38 walks and 74 strikeouts.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Adrian’s skills go a little below his average over the last four seasons in 2014, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him do better either.

5. Alex Rios – 151 games, .273/.314/.438/.753 line with 19 home runs, 76 RBI, 33 walks and 90 strikeouts.

6. Mitch Moreland – 111 games, .253/.318/.440/.758 line with 16 home runs, 47 RBI, 33 walks and 79 strikeouts.

7. Geovany Soto – 108 games, .238/.325/.429/.755 line with 15 home runs, 42 RBI, 39 walks and 86 strikeouts.

8. Jurickson Profar – 155 games, .231/.301/.343/.645 line with 12 home runs, 50 RBI, 45 walks and 115 strikeouts.

Not having a lot of data on Profar this one is based on his 162 game projections and what I have seen of him so far. I am hoping he does a lot better thank I have him here.

9. Leonys Martin – 152 games, .254/.306/.425/.715 line with 15 home-runs, 60 RBI, 32 walks and 112 strikeouts.

Again, Leonys is based on my guess on how he will perform, I may be way off base on him, but I think he will do a little better than the projections on BBR are. There will be bench players as well, but I wanted to take a minute to do the starters and how I feel they will perform in 2014. Feel free to tell me where I am wrong.

Topics: Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar, Lineup, Mitch Moreland, Prince Fielder, Shin-soo Choo, Texas Rangers

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  • MidniteTease

    Hmm. This is an extremely shaky prediction, mainly because it’s based on correlations for *last year’s* team, but that would put the Rangers at 700 RBI and 737 Runs Scored. Which would move them from 8th place to 7th place in both categories. However, that’s not taking into consideration that not only is the starting lineup changed significantly, the bench and platoons will be completely different. And then there’s always the possibility that having a better lineup constructed with better-fitting parts produces more runs than just the raw talent indicates.

    And like I said, my correlations with last-year’s lineup are highly debatable.

    • Ben Dieter

      I left bench and platoon players out of this post. I really did this for fun, i am pretty sure my numbers won’t pan out very

  • Lee Stitzel

    What is your method here? I like most of the batting average and on base predictions.

    • Ben Dieter

      My method on most was their average from the last four seasons. On Leonys and Profar I went with bbr projections mixed with my gut!

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