Texas Rangers 2017 Positional Breakdown: Starting Rotation

When healthy, the Rangers have the best rotation in the AL West and one of the best in all of baseball. Could a full year of Darvish, a healthy Tyson Ross and a bounce back year from Andrew Cashner lead the Rangers to a three-peat?

If the Texas Rangers rotation can stay healthy it could be one of the best in all of baseball. The additions of Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner via free agency should solidify the bottom of the rotation if they can stay healthy. The one-two punch of Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels is lethal if Darvish can stay healthy. Martin Perez could be a solid number-three if he can stay healthy. Notice a trend here?

The past several years the Rangers have had the potential to feature one of the best rotations in baseball barring injury. The 2017 Rangers will be no different.

There’s no denying what this rotation can do if healthy. Given the injury history of Darvish, Perez, Ross and Cashner it might be a good idea to take a look at organizational pitching depth, in case of the inevitable.

Projected Rotation

1. Yu Darvish
2. Cole Hamels
3. Martin Perez
4. Andrew Cashner
5. Tyson Ross

We all know what a full season of Yu Darvish can produce. In 2013 Darvish totaled 209.2 innings, 277 strikeouts, a 2.83 ERA and a 2nd place finish in the CY Young voting. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen a full healthy season from him since.

What we did see from Darvish in 2016 was encouraging. In 17 starts he averaged 11.84 K/9, the highest of his career and 2.78 BB/9, the lowest of his career. His 3.09 FIP was the second best of his career as was his 1.12 WHIP.

Perhaps the most encouraging statistic from 2016 was his average fastball velocity. Averaging 94 MPH on his fastball, Darvish threw harder in 2016 than any other year of his career. Healthy Darvish mixed with contract-year Darvish could produce a CY Young candidate and the ace of the Rangers rotation.

An awful September put a stain in what was otherwise a great season from Hamels. His September ERA of 5.86 was almost two-whole-points higher than his next highest, 3.89 ERA in May.

He also gave up more home-runs in September than in August and July combined. Even with the rough September, Hamels helped lead the Rangers to their 2nd AL West title in as many years.

In his 44 starts as a Ranger the team has a 32-10 record. We know what to expect from Hamels at this point and he should continue to be ace-number-two in 2017.

For Martin Perez, 2016 was a mixed bag. His 198 innings marked the first time in his four-year-career he’s surpassed the 150 inning mark. His 33 starts were tied for 4th-most in the AL and the .815 HR’s per game he allowed were the 2nd-lowest in the AL.

That’s about where the good ends. The 205 hits he gave up was 7th-most in the AL and his 76 walks were 4th-most. Perhaps the most interesting stat from 2016 for Perez was his 3.24 ERA at home compared his 5.78 ERA on the road. Maybe if Perez pretended to be pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball every game in 2017 will be better.

What should we realistically expect from Andrew Cashner in 2017? His performance in 2016 was by far the worst of his career. The 4.84 FIP he put up in 2016 was his worst by almost a full point.

His 4.09 BB/9 was the highest since his rookie season in 2010. His 7.84 ERA away from home last year is alarming considering he’s moving from a pitcher-friendly park to a very hitter-friendly one.

With all that said it’s very possible 2016 was just a bad year. He’s only two-years removed from a solid 2015 and three-years removed from a fantastic 2014. If Cashner can have a bounce back year in 2017 he could be a huge addition for the Rangers.

When healthy, Tyson Ross is an elite-tier pitcher. It’s as simple as that. Ross’s injury is an interesting one because of how rare it is.

There just simply isn’t a big enough sample size of pitchers returning from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome to have realistic expectations. The feeling from the team is that Ross won’t be ready until late May/early June.

If Ross comes back healthy and pitches a vintage Tyson Ross season he could be the Rangers third ace. In his 2-full-seasons as a starter, Ross hasn’t had a FIP over 3.25 or an ERA over 3.30.

His slider is one of the most devastating pitches in baseball. In 2015 no one threw an off-speed pitch more than Ross threw his slider. Throwing it 41.6% of the time, Ross netted a 22.6 rating with his slider, the third best in baseball.

Depth

With Tyson Ross not expected back until at least May and with the injury history of the rotation, pitching depth will be important in 2017. The 5th spot in the rotation will be completely up for grabs heading into Spring Training.

A.J. Griffin will more than likely have the advantage heading into Spring Training. Griffin started the season strong before a shoulder injury sidelined him for most of May and June. Upon returning, Griffin ran into a brick wall and could not get anything going.

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Griffin was solid in April, May and June posting a 2.52 ERA, 4.15 ERA, and a 2.89 ERA respectively. Finishing the first-half with a 3.81 ERA it appeared the Rangers found a gem. However, his 5.84 ERA, 5.34 ERA, and 7.94 ERA in July, August and September tarnished what was a solid start. If Griffin shows signs of his first-half-self in Spring Training he should start the season as the Rangers number 5.

Yohander Mendez has skyrocketed from the Rangers number 8 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus in 2016 to number 1 in 2017. One of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the entire league, Mendez may be ready sooner than we expected.

Mendez flew through High-A, Double-A and Triple-A last year on his way to a September call-up from the big league club. An impressive 2.19 ERA in 21 starts in the minors including a 0.57 ERA in seven Triple-A appearances, Mendez might be ready for a spot in the rotation this year.

The Rangers signed Dillon Gee to a Minor-League deal with an invite to Spring Training this off-season. Gee hasn’t posted an ERA under 4 since 2013 and split last year between the starting rotation and bullpen with the Kansas City Royals. Gee seems like a long-shot to make the rotation, but is a solid emergency guy if the injuries start to pile up.

Mike Hauschild was selected by the Rangers in the rule-5 draft this past December. While the 27-year-old has yet to pitch in the Majors he does have some solid Minor League numbers. Since he was selected in the rule-5 draft he’ll have to remain on the big league club the whole season.

With that in mind, it’ll be interesting to see what the club does with him. He put up an ERA under 3.50 the past two years in Triple-A. He could win a spot in Spring Training but it’s more likely to see him in a long relief/emergency starter role.