Five Bold Predictions for the Texas Rangers’ Pitching Staff in 2014

Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

The 2014 season approaches. Here are five bold predictions about  what we will see from the Texas Rangers’ pitching staff in 2014

1.  The Texas Rangers rotation has a below average ERA (for the AL) despite Yu Darvish having a sub 2.50 ERA.

Yu will have another magnificent year, perhaps his best yet if he attacks the zone and gets deeper into games than he has in the past. The rest of the rotation is suspect and will likely be no better than average. With as many injury concerns as this rotation has sub par starters are going to get starts and those pitchers will push this rotation’s ERA up past league average. The rotation is going to have to rely on some combination of Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogano, Colby Lewis, Nick Tepesch, Robbie Ross and even Tanner Scheppers. While all of these pitchers (except Nick Tepesch?) have the capacity to be average or better as a starter, the expectations should be kept low for all these pitchers in 2014. Between injuries and inexperience the last three spots, or perhaps every spot not held by Yu Darvish (Sorry Martin Perez), is pretty suspect.

The season could open with Yu Darvish, Perez, Harrison, Ogando and Tepesch all in the rotation. This rotation would have the potential to be plenty good to start the season, if Harrison bounces back and Perez maintains, or improves on, his 2013 performance, but eventually the rotation is likely to break down. Once Ogando goes down and if Harrison cannot stay healthy the rotation may degrade into Yu Darvish, Perez, Lewis, Tepesch, and Ross which would be a sub par starting five.

2. Alexi Ogando gets ten starts before  the All Star break but fewer than five after.

Sep 27, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Alexi Ogando (41) delivers a pitch to the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning of a baseball game at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

Ogando has a pattern. He starts out nicely; sometimes nice enough to make the All Star game, and then gets injured in the second half. This prediction is based on Ogando’s health history and also a prediction that Jon Daniels will acquire a starting pitcher at the deadline. This will put Ogando back in the pen where he can stay healthy. Texas will not be able to ride Ogando through the second half. He is going to have to be replaced part way through the season.

3. Colby Lewis makes no more than one start in the Majors.

July 18, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Colby Lewis (48) pitches during the second inning against the Oakland Athletics at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Injury reports are looking good for Colby Lewis but being healthy is different than being good enough to hold a rotation spot in the majors. Lewis was never anything special even when he was a workhorse. A 4.50 ERA is not going to hold a spot in this rotation and a mid four ERA is likely an optimistic prediction for Lewis. Colby’s last full season was 2011 and Lewis scuffled to a 4.40 ERA while giving up an enormous 35 homeruns. Texas will likely give Lewis a shot at some point in 2014 but it will not go well and Daniels will not cling to nostalgia on a team that should be World Series or bust.

5. Matt Harrison starts hot and fades badly.

Mar 31, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Matt Harrison (54) throws a pitch against the Houston Astros in the second inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The expectations cannot be too high for a pitcher coming off of two back surgeries. Harrison is a more than serviceable starting pitcher  when healthy so I will predict that he starts strong with a sub 3.50 ERA but around the half way point Harrison’s conditioning start to show and his second half ERA will be over 4.50. Harrison had a 3.38 ERA in 2011 and a 3.29 ERA in 2012. This kind of production would be more than welcome in Texas. Can Harrison put up a low 3 ERA? Perhaps, but we should manage our expectations for Harrison until he proves he is all the way back from injury.

Bonus. Yu Darvish wins the CY Young award.

If one prediction is that Yu will be under 2.50 ERA it only makes sense that Darvish will be a front runner for the CY Young. Darvish has the stuff to win the CY Young, he is clutch in big games and has the kind of strike out numbers necessary to impress voters. Look for Darvish to post insane strikeouts and limit runs in 2014. Darvish has improved every year and he will keep up this trend this year. Darvish will solidify himself as the best starter in the American League and bring the Cy Young to Texas in 2014.