Five Bold Predictions for the Texas Rangers in 2014

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

With the SuperBowl officially past we find ourselves less than two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting. It is time for baseball. Presented below are five of my predictions for the Texas Rangers in 2014.

1. Ian Kinsler hammers his former team in head to head match ups but Nelson Cruz does not (provided he lands on a team that plays Texas). A. J. Pierzynski is also quiet against Texas.

Texas will have to face Kinsler this year as they will have both a home and away series against Detroit. Kinsler is the kind of player that will feed on the extra motivation of playing his former and long time team. Kinsler and Texas parted on good terms but the motivation to play well against one’s former team will still be there. Kinsler will get around 25 at bats against Texas if he is healthy and in the lineup for Detroit vs. Texas games. I expect Kinlser will hit at least a couple homeruns and will bat .300 or better against his former club.

Cruz and Pierzynski on the other hand will be easier for Texas to neutralize. Neither one will feed on the motivation like Kinsler will and both have big holes in their swings that Texas will be able to be able to exploit. I do not think either will hit a four bagger against Texas and both will feature OBPs lower than .330.

3. The ballpark in Arlington starts to shed its hitters ballpark reputation.

Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has long had a reputation of favoring hitters. It is not as extreme as Great American Ballpark (Cincinnati) or Coors Field (Colorado) but it has been known as one of the more hitter friendly parks. Part of this designation comes from the usually offensively heavy Rangers teams of seasons past and part from the jet stream that swirls in Arlington summers. With recent renovations the jetstream has been significantly diminished. Media outside of Arlington still has RBiA labeled as a hitters park but in reality it is far more neutral now. Perhaps it is hard to quantify how this prediction might be evaluated, however, when you hear a commentator on ESPN or  MLB Network argue that RBiA is no longer a true hitters park remember that you heard it here first.

4. Jon Daniels stands pat at the deadline.Jon Daniels has made multiple large trades at each of the past few deadlines.

Jan 31, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels talks to the media during a press conference announcing the retirement of former Texas Ranger Michael Young (not pictured) at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

In 2013 it was Alex Rios and Matt Garza, the year before it was Ryan Dempster and in 2010 it was Cliff Lee and several smaller trades. Both the Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster trades were near disasters. The Garza trade was particularly bad, with Texas giving up four good young players for a pitcher who was not good down the stretch. The Alex Rios trade was very good for Texas because the White Sox were looking for a salary dump and required little in return. The Rios and Lee deal seem to have been worth it but the rest of the deals were particularly awful.

I predict that Daniels learns from his mistakes and does not make a big trade for a short term rental in 2014. The Alex Rios trade was worthwhile because Rios still had a year and a half left on his deal and Daniels gave up next to nothing to get him. Daniels might acquire a player like David Price who has more than half a season left on his contract, but in the end, Texas will stand pat at the deadline and ride their core group through the end of the season.

5. Texas wins the West in a tight three way race. Either the Angels or the A’s win the first wild card.

Sep 30, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Alex Cobb (53) warms up on the field before the American League wild-card tiebreaker game against the Texas Rangers at Texas Rangers Ballpark at Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The AL West will be powerful division as the Angels bounce back and the A’s and Rangers hold form. The West will be the best division in the AL even with the Astros still rebuilding. I would like to have predicted that Texas runs away with this division but realistically the division has gotten much better because every team has gotten better. The A’s have made some small but significant changes and the Seattle Mariners have improved considerably. Both the Astros and Angels are likely to see incremental improvements through growth and bounce back seasons. None the less, the Texas Rangers have improved the most and I predict this will be their year to win the West by the slimmest of margins. I could also see both wild cards coming from the West but it is more likely that one will come from the East division. The first Wild Card will be the second place AL West team.