Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports
Trade rumors being what they are sometimes get crazy. One over the top suggestion is that Giancarlo Stanton could be traded from the Miami Marlins this year. Stanton has the remainder of this year and two years following on his contract. The Texas Rangers’ interest in Stanton has been well known for some time. They remain a potential suitor for Stanton even at this trade deadline. The possibilities are intriguing for Texas going forward. A top half of the lineup constructed of Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Giancarlo Stanton, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Beltre, would be an incredible joy to watch. However, before we carried away with our fantasy 2015 lineups we should examine the reality of the Stanton situation.
Most likely the Marlins can keep Stanton for two years and still deal him for a sizeable haul at the 2016 deadline. The Marlins will work on an extension for Stanton in the meantime but as of now it seems unlikely that they will able to reach a deal with Stanton. Stanton wants to play on championship team and the Marlins need more time to be that team. It seems inevitable that eventually Stanton will move on from Miami. If Miami is wise they will deal Stanton at the next trade deadline or the one after, but Miami’s front office is known for not always making the best decisions. They may keep trying to sign Stanton all the way through his contact and consequently lose him to free agency.
Stanton will not get dealt this trade deadline. Rangers fans should temper their hopes on that front. Hopefully, we get pleasantly surprised on Thursday but the odds are basically zero. Next year, or the year after we might see a real chance of a trade happening. If Miami is smart and is willing to deal Stanton in the future they will have an enormous market for the slugger. The list of suitors will be longer than the list of teams who would not be in on Stanton.
Texas would be one of the most serious suitors for Miami. Texas has the prospects to land Stanton and the money to sign him long term. Texas would likely have to contend with Boston, St. Louis, Los Angeles (Dodgers), Chicago (Cubs), Seattle, Toronto, Minnesota, San Francisco, Pittsburg, Cincinnati, and New York (Mets). We could argue over who really belongs on the above list and who has been left off the list, but none of that is the point. The point is that most teams would be in on Stanton and the competition would be stiff. The most serious contenders for Stanton would be Texas, Boston, Los Angeles (Dodgers), and Seattle, all of whom could both trade for and afford to sign Stanton. Stanton is going to get a huge deal sooner or later. His deal will be greater than 200 million over at least 7 years and he is going to be worth every penny.
Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
It would take a lot to land Stanton. Texas would have to part with at least one of Joey Gallo, Jorge Alfaro, or Jurickson Profar, maybe two of those three. They would also need add multiple pieces like Luke Jackson, Alex Gonzalez, Jacob Thompson, Nick Williams etc. It probably takes at least three of your top twenty prospects with one of those being your best or second best prospect and another being top five.
Realistically, Texas could pay a Mark Teixeira price for Stanton. It is hard to imagine any scenario where Texas keeps Gallo and lands Stanton without giving up basically every other prospect of worth. If Gallo is the price, then Texas needs to seriously consider trading Gallo away. It might sound crazy and it may prove to be unwise to bet 200 million dollars that Gallo cannot become the left handed Giancarlo Stanton, but prospects will break your heart.
Would I trade Gallo for Stanton? Probably not, but only because I irrationally love prospects. Baseball is the best for just this reason. No other sport offers you the hope of prospects when your team is bad, or the dream that prospects will allow the run to never end when your team is on top.
Basically, the Giancarlo Stanton trade talk is premature. Teams are definitely talking to Miami about Stanton, but they do not want to entertain the idea just yet, and they do not need to at this point. We should file this idea away for now and revisit this next year when Miami might seriously consider trading Stanton and the Texas Rangers are real playoff contenders again.