Predicting the Texas Rangers 2015 rotation

The Texas Rangers season has basically been over since the end of June.  Since then they have been focused on seeing what they’ll have for the 2015 season.

Failed experiments: Jon Daniels has tried out several players in the starting rotation this season.  He started off by doing what he’s normally done in the past and that is promoting from the bullpen.  This year the Texas Rangers tried to move Robbie Ross Jr. and Tanner Scheppers from the bullpen at the start of the season.

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The Scheppers experiment turned out to be a disaster and might have lead to him being on the disabled list for a large portion of the season.  Robbie Ross had some issues also and he was moved back to the bullpen and finally optioned to the minors.  But, the Robbie Ross experiment isn’t over just yet.  He was a starter back during his college days and has started to find success with the Rangers triple-A team.

Injuries: The first half of the season was also filled with injuries and another starters that didn’t workout.  They were hoping Matt Harrison would be able to come back from back surgery but he ended up having additional issues which required more surgery.  Unfortunately it appears his career is likely over.  He won’t be part of the Texas Rangers plans for 2015, he if is it’s by virtue of a miracle.

Also, the Rangers tried out Joe Saunders, Tommy Hanson, and a wide range of others in the starting rotation.  It hasn’t been until the second half of the season that the starting rotation has finally started to come together.

One name you won’t see in the list is Martin Perez.  Perez has been a very good pitcher in the rotation so far for the Texas Rangers.  He started off the season looking very good, he even pitched 2 complete game shutouts allowing only 3 hits.  But, he ended up going on the disabled list and had to have Tommy John surgery.  He won’t likely return until late in the second half of the 2015 season.

Predicting the rotation: With just a little over a month and half left in the season the Rangers are testing out what they have for next season.  So who will be in the starting rotation for the 2015 season?

Sep 28, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher

(45) delivers a pitch to the Los Angeles Angels during the second inning of a baseball game at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

Made in Holland:  This was supposed to be a banner year for the Texas Rangers and a chance for Derek Holland to help them on another playoff run.  But, he’s part of a story everyone has heard over and over.  Holland entered the 2014 season on the disabled list and probably won’t make his first appearance as a Rangers until late August or early September.  But, he should be on track to earning the number 2 spot in the rotation for next season.

2013 stats (No 2014 major league stats) 

• Record 10-9
• 3.42 ERA
• 8.0 strikeouts per 9 innings
• 189 strikeouts
• 64 walks
• 2.95 strikeout to walks ratio
• 1.286 WHIP
• 3.3 WAR (7.5 career WAR)

One major thing the Texas Rangers are lacking in their starting rotation is a dominate lefty.  Holland will bring that back to the rotation next season.

Video: 09/23/13 Derek Holland discusses complete game 

Derek Holland talks about blanking the Astros in a complete game and throwing the seventh shutout of his Rangers career.

Jul 24, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher

(48) pitches against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Yankees defeated the Rangers 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Cobra attack: Colby Lewis isn’t the same pitcher he was during the Texas Rangers two World Series appearances, but he’s managed to show he still has a little be left in the tank.  He started off the season a little bit rough, but that’s mainly because he’s been trying to figure out how to pitch after his hip surgery.  As the season has progressed he’s managed to improve slowly and he could be part of the 2015 rotation.

2014 stats

• Record 8-10
• 5.52 ERA
• 7.6 strikeouts per 9 innings
• 103 strikeouts
• 39 walks
• 2.64 strikeout to walks ratio
• 1.659 WHIP
• -0.9 WAR (4.6 career WAR)

Since the All-star break Colby Lewis has a record of 2-4 with a 3.29 ERA over 6 starts/38.1 innings.    He recently managed to get 10 strikeouts against the Los Angeles Angels in his last outing, which was the first time he’s struck out 10 or more batters since 6/17/2012.

Lewis has said that each outing he feels better about his hip and his finally able to do some additional work between starts to help him pitch deeper in games.

So far no one with the Rangers is talking about if they’ll re-sign Lewis for next season, but at this point it seems it could likely happen.  He’ll need to finish strong, but if they can managed to get him to be 90% of what he was back in 2010 and 2011 then he’ll be a big part of the rotation in 2015.

Aug 17, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher

(23) throws during the second inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Just in the Nick of time: Right now it appears that Nick Tepesch is working his name in the conversation to be in the rotation next season.  He’s managed to pitch better recently and did a decent job last season in several starts.  More than likely the Jon Daniels will be shopping for another starting pitcher during the offseason, but that should mean that Tepesch will still be in the rotation, but will probably be the number 5 guy.

2014 stats

• Record 4-7
• 4.15 ERA
• 4.6 strikeouts per 9 innings
• 44 strikeouts
• 28 walks
• 1.57 strikeout to walks ratio
• 1.315 WHIP
• 1.3 WAR (1.1 career WAR)

Nick Tepesch did start off the season a bit rough.  For the month of July he had a record of 0-4 with a 7.15 ERA.  He was roughed up hard during 2 starts allowing 5 or more earned runs.

Once the calender rolled over to August things have gone much better for him.  He has a record of 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA over 3 starts/19.2 innings.    He’s managed to have a lot more command of his pitches and is getting a better strikeout to walk ratio because of it.

Aug 15, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher

(22) throws during the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Bulldog: If Jon Daniels doesn’t pickup anyone during the offseason then that would likely mean that Nick Martinez will return next season in the starting rotation.  Even if the Rangers do decided to add someone to the rotation, that could mean that Martinez is moved to the bullpen as a long reliever.  This hasn’t been an outstanding season for Martinez, but he’s continued to develop and has progressed as well as anyone would have expected.  He started off the season in Frisco after being promoted from class-A ball in Myrtle Beach.  No one really expected him to be at the big league level this early, but due to the rash of injuries to the pitching staff he was called up earlier than expected.

2014 stats

• Record 2-9
• 5.27 ERA
• 4.8 strikeouts per 9 innings
• 50 strikeouts
• 41 walks
• 1.22 strikeout to walks ratio
• 1.606 WHIP
• 0.5 WAR

Recently Nick Martinez has been struggling.  Over his last 4 starts he as a record of 1-3 with a 7.06 ERA.   But, over those last 3 games he has strikeout a career high 6 batters back-to-back.  Martinez was part of the Opening day rotation this season and has a chance still to make a case for 2015 with the remaining month and half left.