Nolan Writin’ Staff Rangers Season Projections

Texas Rangers 2016 Season Predictions and Projections

This upcoming 2016 season is shaping up to be one of the most important in recent Texas Rangers history. With the loads of talent and veterans on this team, the Rangers could be facing a make or break season. The mantra for the Texas Rangers has been “Never Ever Quit”.

The Rangers plan on continuing that trend heading into 2016 in a tough American League West division. The Astros and Mariners promise to be better than they left off last season and the Angels and Athletics will continue to be threats to the a repeat season. Cole Hamels will start Opening Day and kick off a season of nothing but high expectations for Texas.

A team plagued by injuries in the past has beaten the injury bug this offseason. Besides two important players, the rest of the team has maintained their health this offseason. Yu Darvish, who’s coming back from Tommy John surgery will be back by late May and Josh Hamilton should be back by May meaning that for most of the season, the Rangers could be at full strength.

New names and new faces have already had an impact on this team such as Ian Desmond, all-star shortstop converted into starting left fielder.

Some of the staff here at Nolan Writin’ took a look at their expectations and predictions for the season in our Staff Projections.

Rangers Mix Veteran Leadership and Young Talent For Big Season

by Reagan Brown, Staff Writer

Outlook

The Texas Rangers will be looking to repeat as American League West champions in 2016. It won’t be easy, however. The Astros have an uber-talented young squad, and now will have one more year under their belts. Not only that, but the Mariners are also improved from last year. The M’s always seem to underachieve, so let’s hope that that streak doesn’t end now. The Angels are pretty much up in the air. They could end up winning 90 games with Mike Trout and company, or they can flop due to their core getting old (see Pujols, Albert). The A’s are, well, the A’s. Logic says they win 65 games this season, but with Billy Beane behind the scenes, who knows what could happen between now and September. On to the projections:

Biggest Surprise

The Rangers’ biggest surprise player of the 2016 season will be Matt Bush. With the velocity and deception he possesses as a pitcher, I think he’ll get called up to the club around May to early June. I think he’ll eventually become another set up man, and perhaps move into the Closer’s role. I also believe there won’t be a “set” closer this season, instead having guys like Sam Dyson, Tom Wilhelmson, Shawn Tolleson, Keone Kela, and Jake Diekman get save opportunities whenever Jeff Banister sees fit.

Biggest Let Down

Shawn Tolleson. I love the guy, but he just doesn’t seem like he’ll be able to repeat what he did last season. He was overworked last year, and showed significant decline going into the final couple weeks of the season. It might’ve just been me, but I didn’t have much confidence in him. Every time he came into a save situation, I was extremely nervous about him blowing it. This isn’t something you want to feel when your closer comes in. He has average deception as a pitcher, and he’s only able to throw about 95. By about May, I think his ERA will be bloated to about 4.50, and he will be subsequently moved down in the order for bullpen arms.

Top Pitcher

To hopefully no one’s surprise, the top pitcher in 2016 will be Cole Hamels. He’s one of the most consistent pitcher in the MLB, and with a full offseason with the Rangers, he should be a lot more acclimated than he was last summer. His final stat line:

Record – 18 – 7

ERA– 3.13

SO – 190

Team MVP

This season, the team MVP will be Ian Desmond. Desmond will have a career year this year, regaining value as a free agent going into 2017. He will eventually become the starting center fielder, moving Delino DeShields to left. This will be mostly due to Desmond’s much better arm, and preparing DDS for Lewis Brinson moving into the everyday center fielder’s role in 2017. Desmond’s final stats:

BA – .272

HR – 25

RBI – 102

Runs– 97

OBP – .320

BB – 55

Final Record

94-68 (1st in AL West)

AL West Standings

1. Texas Rangers: 94-68
2. Houston Astros: 90-72
3. Seattle Mariners: 85-77
4. Los Angeles Angels: 80-82
5. Oakland Athletics: 73-89

Playoff Projection

The Rangers, winning the West, will already be in the ALDS. I project they beat the Boston Red Sox in the best of 5 series 4-1. In the American League Championship Series, I project that the Rangers will sweep the Toronto Blue Jays 4-0, going to their first World Series since 2011. In the World Series, the Rangers will lose to the Chicago Cubs 4-2, allowing the Cubs to break the curse after 100+ years.

Final Take

This year looks to be a great year for the Texas Rangers. They will get Yu Darvish my mid-May, creating perhaps the best 1-2 starting pitching rotations in all of baseball. The bullpen looks mighty fine, which is not something you could say going into the 2015 season. Their lineup won’t lead the league in offense, but will be a top 5 offense if their guys can perform to their career averages. The enigma is Josh Hamilton. Reports say he is working at first base, which could help with his ongoing knee issues when he plays on the grass in the outfield. The Rangers will once again take advantage of the Astros’ youth, capturing the AL West crown for the fourth time in the last seven years. They’ll make it to the World Series, but will be knocked out by another youth infused team. Let’s hope I’m wrong on that one.

Rangers Improve Upon 2015 With New Bolstered Roster

by Preston Brown, Staff Writer

Outlook

The Texas Rangers will be an improved team this year. Bolstered by a full season of Cole Hamels, along with the return of Yu Darvish, and a full season from the revamped bullpen, they should have no problem matching or slightly improving on the 88-74 record from last year. But with the rise of the Houston Astros, the Rangers will have to do significantly better against the division this season if they are to retain the division crown.

Biggest Surprise Player

Elvis Andrus.

Elvis will finally snap out of the statistical nose dive he has been in over the last few seasons to put up the kind of numbers that were expected out of him when the Rangers gave him the sizable contract extension in 2013. The embarrassing two error inning from the fateful game 5 of last years division series will light a fire under Elvis, and he will finish with a career high .290 batting average, and his first 40 steal season since 2013.

Biggest Letdown Player

Mitch Moreland

After having a career season in 2015 complete with career highs in batting average, RBI’s, hits, and doubles, the expectations on Mitch Moreland are high entering 2016. However, Moreland has always had problems with health and left handed pitching and thus regression is likely. Mitch won’t be bad in 2016, so the disappointment will largely be a product of lofty expectations.  When all is said and done Moreland’s output in 2016 will more closely resemble 2012-2014 than 2015.

Top Pitcher

Keone Kela

With an outstanding rookie season in 2016, Kela is well positioned to be a key cog in the Ranger’s bullpen for years to come. His outstanding stuff makes him projectable as a future closer, a role he may very well take on in a season or two. This season he will be the most dominant Ranger out of the ‘pen, and will seize the role of primary setup man for closer Shawn Tolleson early on. Leading all Ranger’s relievers in ERA, strikeouts, and batting average against will capture Kela pitcher of the year honors for 2016.

ERA- 1.95

SO- 85

BAA- .190

Team MVP

Rougned Odor

Though he may not lead the Rangers in any of the major statistical categories (BA, HRs, RBIs) in 2016, he will rank in the top 3 for all of them, and be the most indispensable component of a dangerous Rangers lineup. Rougned will also earn his first all-star nod in 2016 as he continues to blossom into a star.

BA- .295

OBP- .350

HR- 22

RBI- 82

Final Record

90-72 (2nd in AL West)

AL West Standings

1. Houston Astros- 92-70 (Division champion)
2. Texas Rangers- 90-72 (Wild Card #1)
3. Seattle Mariners- 86-76
4. Los Angeles Angels- 80-82
5. Oakland Athletics- 76-86

Playoff Projection

The Texas Rangers will finish 2nd in the AL West falling just short of the Houston Astros in their quest to repeat as division champions. However, they will claim the first American league wild card spot. From there the Texas Rangers will defeat the Boston Red Sox in the wild card round, and the Toronto Blue Jays in the divisional round before falling to the Houston Astros in a hard fought AL championship series.