Predicting The Over/Under on Rangers Starting Pitching Projections

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The 2017 Texas Rangers starting rotation is riddled with question marks. Looking at pre-season predictions confirms this.

Advanced sabermetrics hate them. No really, they do. Fangraph’s preseason predictions have the Texas Rangers finishing 83-79. This would leave them tied for second in the AL West with both the Mariners and the Angels and seven games behind the first place Astros who are projected to finish 90-72.

Sabermetrics weren’t kind to the Rangers last year either, despite finishing with the best record in the American League and second best in franchise history at 95-67. On the final day of the season the Rangers had a 1520 ELO rating, which is barley above an average team.

ELO is a system designed by FiveThirtyEight, used to compare teams across all eras. It takes wins into account of course, but also takes run differential among other things into account in order to dive deeper than a team’s record. The Rangers historic performance in one-run games mixed with their pedestrian +8 run differential did not bode well for these types of projections.

Their 1520 rating was only 20 points over what is considered a ‘average team’. Both the Mariners and Astros, who finished behind the Rangers in the division, had a better rating than the Rangers.

So we should just pack it up and hand the division title to the Astros? What’s the point of even playing out the season, right? Not today complicated sabermetric predictions. The Rangers will try to exceed expectations for the third year in a row heading into 2017.

One of the main reasons projections are so low on the Rangers is because of the question marks surrounding the teams starting rotation. Let’s dive into how sabermetrics think the starting rotation will fair.

Yu Darvish

ZiPS projection – 3.2 WAR
Over/Under – Over

Its understandable why Yu Darvish’s projections are low for an ace. He’s pitched a grand total of 100.1 innings since 2014. For Darvish, his pitching ability has never been in question. His ability to stay healthy however, is a different story.

After a remarkable first two years in the Major Leagues, Darvish’s arm has turned on him much like how Lando Calrissian turned on Han Solo or how Benidict Arnold turned on the colonies. If history (or movies) has taught us anything, it’s that traitors always lose and those betrayed get their cinderella ending. Han Solo helped blow up the Death Star and the colonies turned into the land of the free. So is 2017 Yu Darvish’s Death Star moment?

ZiPS is projecting 3.2 WAR from Darvish this upcoming season. This would be the second lowest WAR of Darvish’s career behind his shortened 2016 season. However, that projection may be misleading because of the 139.3 innings he is projected to pitch.

With the possibility of a huge contract looming in free agency for Darvish, staying healthy will be the goal in 2017. If he can approach the 200 inning mark, its hard to see him not shattering this projection.

Prediction – 4.9 WAR

Cole Hamels

ZiPS projection – 3.0 WAR
Over/Under – Push

Upon first glance, 3.0 WAR may seem like a low projection for someone who was an All-Star a season ago. His beard by itself may be enough to give him at least 3.5 WAR. However, given last season and his career trajectory to this point, 3.0 WAR may be the perfect projection for Cole Hamels.

Hamels’ career has been a model of consistency. He’s pitched 200+ innings every season since 2010 and from 2011-2015 did not produce lower than 4.0 WAR. Up until September, Hamels was pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

A rough September put a damper on what was otherwise a great campaign from Cole. His 5.86 ERA during the month stood out compared to the rest of his season. While the .355 BABIP points to Hamels being a bit unlucky, 42 percent of balls put in play were hit hard which points to possible fatigue.

Could it be possible that September was a sign of things to come? Hamels will be 33 years old heading into 2017 which is not a friendly age for pitchers. 3.0 WAR is a fair projection for Hamels, and if Darvish can stay healthy it will be a great one-two punch.

Prediction – 3.0 WAR

Martin Perez

ZiPS projection – 1.4 WAR
Over/Under – Over

Martin Perez’s career has yet to take off as planned. Once one of baseballs top pitching prospects, even drawing some Cliff Lee comparisons, Perez has struggled to stay consistent. He will be 26 heading into Opening Day which is still young enough to hold out hope.

Consistency hasn’t been the only thing standing in Perez’s way. He has pitched over 100 innings twice since debuting in 2012 and over 150 innings once. Injuries have slowed his development, but he was able to pitch almost 200 innings in 2016.

If Perez can finish around 200 innings again, it’s hard to see him producing 1.4 WAR or lower. He produced 1.8 WAR a season ago and 1.6 WAR in 2015 while only pitching 78 innings.

With that being said, Perez will need to reverse some alarming trends. His strikeouts per nine innings have taken a nose dive while his walks per nine innings have steadily increased, reaching a career high in 2016.

Perez is at his best when he’s forcing contact. In 2015 he produced a career low 3.40 FIP while giving up a career low in home runs. Perez yielded a 22.7 hard hit percentage in 2015, a career low, while yielding a 30.7 hard hit percentage in 2016, a career high.

If Perez can stay healthy throughout the year he should be able to outperform his projections. If he can revert back to producing weak contact, it could finally be his breakout year.

Prediction – 1.8 WAR

Tyson Ross

ZiPS projection – 1.6
Over/Under – Over?

Tyson Ross may be the Rangers biggest wildcard heading into 2017. If he can revert back to his San Diego Padres form he can become ace number three in the rotation. Unfortunately, there isn’t a big enough sample of pitchers returning from thoracic outlet syndrome to comfortably predict how Ross will bounce back.

Some pitchers like Chris Carpenter and Shaun Marcum’s careers were essentially derailed upon returning from the injury. To be fair, Carpenter was already in his late 30’s by the time he was diagnosed with the injury.

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Other players such as Chris Young and Kenny Rogers saw success after returning. Chris Young won the MLB Comeback Player of the Year award in 2014 and won a World Series in 2015 with the Royals. Matt Harrison saw his best seasons as a Ranger after receiving treatment for the injury in 2009.

If Ross can stay on pace to return in early May and responds positively to treatment, he will shatter his projections. In his last two full seasons Ross has produced a combined 7.6 WAR. He was an All-Star in 2014 but arguably had his best season in 2015.

Ross’ strikeouts per nine innings and ground ball rate were steadily increasing heading into his injury shortened 2016 season. If he can revert to form this is an easy over, but only time will tell.

Prediction – 2.2 WAR

Andrew Cashner

ZiPS projection – 1.1 WAR
Over/Under – Push

Andrew Cashner is yet another wildcard on this years Ranger team. A tough 2016 saw him getting traded at the deadline and signing a one-year deal in an off-season short of starting pitching talent.

His 5.25 ERA was a career high. His 4.09 walks per nine innings, 1.30 home runs per nine and 4.84 FIP were all the highest since his rookie season.

Cashner has shown in the past that he is more than capable of being a solid starting pitcher. In 2014 he pitched to a 2.55 ERA and 3.09 FIP, both career bests. Even his 4.34 ERA in 2015 is deceiving as the .330 BABIP against him is unusually high.

So how can Cashner revert back to his 2014 form? It could be as simple as going back to his two-seam fastball. In 2014 he threw his two-seamer 36.8 percent of the time which helped lead to a 16.0 fastball rating.

In 2016 Cashner only threw the two-seam 15.1 percent of the time, a career low, which resulted in a -4.1 fastball rating. Cashner’s live fastball helps set up his otherwise below average off speed pitches, making them more effective.

Next: Check Out How The Rangers Did in The WBC

Cashner is expected to return on April 15th, only missing one time through the rotation. He has pitched over 180 innings only once in his career, so predicting around 200 innings may be irrational. If he can prove 2016 was an outlier season, Cashner could be one of the best number five starters in baseball.

Prediction – 1.1 WAR

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