Predicting The Over/Under on Rangers Starting Pitching Projections

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Mar 13, 2017; Surprise, AZ, USA; Texas Rangers pitcher Yu Darvish throws against the San Francisco Giants during a Cactus League spring training game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Yu Darvish

ZiPS projection – 3.2 WAR
Over/Under – Over

Its understandable why Yu Darvish’s projections are low for an ace. He’s pitched a grand total of 100.1 innings since 2014. For Darvish, his pitching ability has never been in question. His ability to stay healthy however, is a different story.

After a remarkable first two years in the Major Leagues, Darvish’s arm has turned on him much like how Lando Calrissian turned on Han Solo or how Benidict Arnold turned on the colonies. If history (or movies) has taught us anything, it’s that traitors always lose and those betrayed get their cinderella ending. Han Solo helped blow up the Death Star and the colonies turned into the land of the free. So is 2017 Yu Darvish’s Death Star moment?

ZiPS is projecting 3.2 WAR from Darvish this upcoming season. This would be the second lowest WAR of Darvish’s career behind his shortened 2016 season. However, that projection may be misleading because of the 139.3 innings he is projected to pitch.

With the possibility of a huge contract looming in free agency for Darvish, staying healthy will be the goal in 2017. If he can approach the 200 inning mark, its hard to see him not shattering this projection.

Prediction – 4.9 WAR

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