Predicting The Over/Under on Rangers Infield Projections

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Mar 21, 2017; Surprise, AZ, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus (1) during a spring training game against the Chicago White Sox at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 21, 2017; Surprise, AZ, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus (1) during a spring training game against the Chicago White Sox at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mar 5, 2017; Surprise, AZ, USA; Texas Rangers catcher Jonathan Lucroy (25) hits a single against the Chicago Cubs during the second inning at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 5, 2017; Surprise, AZ, USA; Texas Rangers catcher Jonathan Lucroy (25) hits a single against the Chicago Cubs during the second inning at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

Jonathan Lucroy

  • ZiPS projection – 3.2 WAR
  • Over/Under – Over

This is one of the few head scratching projections for the starting infield. 3.2 WAR would be lowest WAR produced in a full season by Jonathan Lucroy since 2011. He’s coming off of a career year and will spend an entire season hitting in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball. So why so low?

Lucroy led all qualified catchers in WAR, ISO rating, offense rating, RBI and OPS. All while putting up the second highest defense rating. Lucroy proved in 2016 that he was one of the games premier catchers.

ZiPS is projecting a nearly .050 point drop off in his ISO rating, ten less home runs, nearly 20 less wRC+, a 12 point decrease in his offensive rating and almost 20 less RBI.

It is possible that Lucroy sees a dip in numbers after a career year in 2016. But in a contract year, hitting in the middle of a stacked lineup and being in what seems to be his prime, it’s hard to see Lucroy’s numbers take that hard of a drop.

Prediction – 4.4 WAR

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