Predicting The Over/Under on Rangers Infield Projections

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The infield is the Rangers strongest and deepest unit. Also, one of the best in baseball. How will they fare in 2017?

Yesterday, we took a look at projections for the Texas Rangers starting rotation. It was mentioned how poorly the Rangers do in these advanced sabermetric projections.

The Rangers are projected by Fangraphs to finish tied for third in the AL West with an 83-79 record, which would leave them out of the playoffs for the first time since 2014. One of the main reasons for these harsh projections is the question marks surrounding the starting rotation.

While both the rotation and outfield are filled with ‘hopefully’s’ and ‘what-if’s’, the infield should continue to be one of the best in all of baseball. Remaining mostly unchanged from a season ago, aside from first base, it features a future Hall of Famer, All-Stars and future All-Stars.

Projections are more friendly towards the infield than they are towards the rotation and for good reason. Every projected starter in the infield played in over 140 games a season ago. Can they help lead the team to an AL-West three-peat in 2017?

Jonathan Lucroy

ZiPS projection – 3.2 WAR
Over/Under – Over

This is one of the few head scratching projections for the starting infield. 3.2 WAR would be lowest WAR produced in a full season by Jonathan Lucroy since 2011. He’s coming off of a career year and will spend an entire season hitting in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball. So why so low?

Lucroy led all qualified catchers in WAR, ISO rating, offense rating, RBI and OPS. All while putting up the second highest defense rating. Lucroy proved in 2016 that he was one of the games premier catchers.

ZiPS is projecting a nearly .050 point drop off in his ISO rating, ten less home runs, nearly 20 less wRC+, a 12 point decrease in his offensive rating and almost 20 less RBI.

It is possible that Lucroy sees a dip in numbers after a career year in 2016. But in a contract year, hitting in the middle of a stacked lineup and being in what seems to be his prime, it’s hard to see Lucroy’s numbers take that hard of a drop.

Prediction – 4.4 WAR

Mike Napoli

ZiPS projection – 1.2 WAR
Over/Under – Under

Mike Napoli is back for his third stint in Arlington and he is just what the doctor ordered for the Rangers lineup. A right-handed power bat with the ability to drive in runs.

Napoli would have thrived in the 80’s and 90’s. A time when hitting home runs was really the only thing that people cared about. A quick glance at his stat line in 2016 may lead one to believe that he was one of the games best players a season ago.

However, there is a thing called defense, and Napoli is not very good at it. His -17.3 defense rating was the fifth lowest in all of baseball. His -6.1 UZR/150 was the fifth lowest among first baseman. In case you were wondering, former Ranger Mitch Moreland led all first baseman in UZR/150 with 9.2.

With Shin-Soo Choo projected to see a lot of time as the designated hitter, Mike Napoli will see a large amount of playing time at first base. The drop off between him and Gold Glove winner, Mitch Moreland, will be noticeable.

However, the Rangers aren’t bringing Napoli in for his glove. The slugger set career highs in both home runs and RBI a season ago. At 35 years old it’s hard to imagine Napoli matching those numbers again.

If he can hover around the 100 RBI mark again all while providing protection in the middle of the lineup, it will be worth it for the Rangers.

Prediction – 1.0 WAR

Rougned Odor

ZiPS projection – 2.4 WAR
Over/Under – Push

Fresh off a six-year contract extension and an impressive performance in the World Baseball Classic, Rougned Odor heads into 2017 hoping to continue to build on whats been an impressive start to his career.

Early on in his career, Odor is showing a player profile eerily similar to former All-Star Alfonso Soriano. In Soriano’s third full season he hit 38 home runs, had an ISO rating of .235, only walked in 5.2 percent of his plate appearances and had a -4.7 UZR at second base.

In Odor’s third full season he hit 33 home runs, had an ISO rating of .231, only walked three percent of the time and had a UZR of -12.8 at second base. Soriano was a better defender than Odor and was also an elite base stealer, but the similarities are there.

If Odor’s WBC performance is a sign of things to come, it appears the second baseman will have a similar season to 2016. If he can improve his plate discipline and his porous defense, Odor has superstar potential.

Prediction – 2.4 WAR

Elvis Andrus

ZiPS projection – 1.5 WAR
Over/Under – Over

It is hard to believe that Elvis Andrus will be entering his ninth season as a Ranger. The two-time All-Star has seen his production decrease noticeably since early in his career. However, 2016 was his best season since 2013 and the best season at the plate in his career.

Elvis set career highs across the board and became a key piece in the lineup. A majority of his success came from the ninth spot in the order. Elvis could once again act as a second leadoff man in the bottom of the order.

While he was great offensively, his poor play on defense was out of character. For the first time in his career, Elvis had a negative defensive rating. His -15.4 UZR was second worst among qualified shortstops.

This was uncharacteristic from an otherwise good defender. If Elvis can revert back to form defensively, he can be one of the more valuable players on the team. Elvis may not hit as well as he did a season ago, but it’s hard to imagine him performing that bad defensively again.

My bets are high on Elvis having another strong campaign and even performing better than a season ago. While he may never be a All-Star again, Elvis could still be in the top-half of shortstops.

Prediction – 2.8 WAR

Adrian Beltre

ZiPS projection – 3.3 WAR
Over/Under – Over

Another head scratcher here from ZiPS. Adrian Beltre hasn’t had 3.3 WAR or fewer since his last year with the Mariners in 2009. Almost eight seasons ago. In fact, he’s only produced less than 5.0 WAR once in that same span.

Even at the ripe young age of 37, Beltre had one of the best seasons of his career in 2016. Not only did he do it at the plate helping him finish seventh in American League MVP voting, but he also won his fifth Gold Glove award.

More from Nolan Writin'

Beltre will turn 38 on April 7th, yet he still shows no signs of slowing down. He was a handful of players in 2016 to have more RBI than strikeouts. He hit more than 30 home runs for the first time since 2012 and produced his highest defensive rating as a Ranger.

Until someone can convince me that Adrian Beltre is in fact a human, I refuse to believe he will ever be affected by Father Time. He will continue to have a huge impact on and off the field, as the unofficial captain hopes to lead the team to the playoffs for the fifth time in his tenure.

Prediction – 5.7 WAR

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