The good, the bad and the ugly from the Rangers 1st half
The second half of the season is upon us. Before it starts let’s relive the roller-coaster ride that was the first half of the season.
It always seems to amaze me how fast the baseball season flies by. It was only four months ago we were excited at the prospect of a full season of Jonathan Lucroy and the return of Mike Napoli.
We were excited to finally see the breakout of Jurickson Profar and a bullpen that on paper, looked like one of the best cohesive units in the league.
It also never ceases to amaze me how unpredictable baseball can be.
Heading into the All-Star break, the Texas Rangers find themselves 43-45 and 16.5 games behind the first place Houston Astros. The hopes of a three-peat in the American League West all but erased.
However, thanks to an apparent sheer lack of good teams in the American League, the Rangers find themselves only three games back of the second Wildcard. A small margin to make up with just under 80 games left on the schedule.
Before the second half (and what could be a very busy trade deadline) kicks off, let’s look at the good, the bad and the ugly from the first half of 2017.
The Good
Yu Darvish
The Rangers lone All-Star deserves to be the first mentioned in the ‘good’ section. Since coming over from Japan before the 2012 season, Yu Darvish’s electric stuff has never been in question. His health, on the other hand, a different story.
With 2017 being the last year of his once record-setting contract, Darvish needed to prove he could stay healthy to cash in this upcoming offseason. So far he’s done just that logging 100+ innings before the All-Star Break for the first time since 2014.
Having Darvish in the rotation has been crucial for a team who’s starting rotation ranks 4th in ERA. He’s one of only 15 starters to rank in the top-twenty in WAR, ERA, FIP, and K/9.
Whether or not he’s still in a Rangers’ jersey after the August 1st trade deadline remains to be seen. But for now, Darvish has played a vital role in keeping the Rangers afloat.
Andrew Cashner
I’ve received some flak for my critical view of Andrew Cashner’s success. His FIP is too high, and his K/9 is too low to expect him to sustain any success reasonably. But I’ve been saying that since the beginning of the season and he’s still performing somewhat better than anticipated.
Yes, his consistency issues have been a problem, as they have been for most of his career, but he’s contributed far better than the Rangers could have expected.
After finishing with the 9th highest ERA in baseball a season ago, the Rangers took a flyer on Cashner hoping he could anchor the back-end of the rotation.
Instead, he’s been the team’s third-best starter behind the two-headed monster that is Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.
Starting pitching depth
If I were to tell you before the season that the Rangers would be without Cole Hamels for 57 days, Andrew Cashner for 28, A.J. Griffin for 63 (and counting) and Tyson Ross for 76 what would you have guessed? Probably that the team would be rolling out one of the worst rotations baseball has to offer.
Instead, the team has the 4th best starting ERA in the American League. Thanks in large part to the contributions from unlikely sources.
Austin Bibens-Dirkx, a long time minor leaguer, finally made his debut at the age of 32, giving the Rangers six solid starts during the absence of Hamels and Cashner.
Nick Martinez had six outings where he gave up three runs or less, and we even saw a spot start from Alex Claudio. Who, despite being a middle-reliever, pitched four strong innings against the best offense in baseball.
Elvis Andrus
It feels like yesterday people were already deeming the Elvis Andrus extension as one of the worst contracts ever. Admittedly, I was growing concerned. From 2014-2015 he was the second highest paid shortstop despite only producing 3.0 WAR over that stretch.
Fast forward to 2017 and Elvis has completely reinvented himself. We saw his retooled offensive approach last season when he set a new career high with a 9.9 offensive rating, shattering his previous career high by nearly eight points.
Despite his success at the plate, it was his worst year defensively and on the basepaths. Elvis has carried over his newfound hitting approach into 2017 while also bringing more balance to his game.
He ranks top five among shortstops in OPS+, AVG, RBI, runs scored and home runs. He’s also second in stolen bases with 20 and only four steals shy of besting his total from last season.
In what many consider to be a golden era of shortstops, Elvis has made sure we haven’t forgotten about him. Certainly one of the biggest All-Star snubs this season.
Joey Gallo and the three-true-outcomes
Ten years ago it would have been absurd to put a hitter hitting below the Mendoza line in any ‘good’ category. But Joey Gallo has become the poster child of what’s turning into the ‘three-true-outcomes’ era.
Joey Gallo filled in for Adrian Beltre during his stint on the DL and played well enough to find a place in the everyday lineup despite his return. He boasts the lowest average and highest strikeout rate in the American League. But his .821 OPS is over .070 points over what most consider average.
In fact, Gallo is on pace to join 2002 Mark McGwire as the only two players in history to finish the season with an average under .200 and an OPS over .800.
The Bad
Adrian Beltre’s injury drama
When first reported that Adrian Beltre would start the season on the disabled list, the plan was for him to return as early as April 9th. Instead, his road to recovery from a calf strain was a rough one, pushing his season debut all the way back to May 29th.
Since returning from the disabled list, Beltre is top five in nearly every offensive category for third baseman.
With Gallo having a breakout season, it’s reasonable to wonder what a full season of Beltre at third and Gallo out first could produce.
The teams injury drama
The Rangers have sent 18 players to the DL this year, the fifth most, for a total of 758 days, the tenth most and have paid $22,643,332 to players on the DL, the third most.
The 336 days spent on the DL by starting pitchers is the third most with major players like Cole Hamels, Tyson Ross and A.J. Griffin all spending extended amounts of time sidelined.
Luckily the rotation has been able to stay afloat. Unfortunately, the bullpen can’t say the same.
While the disastrous performance from the unit isn’t entirely tied to injuries, it certainly has played a role. Jose Leclerc, arguably the team’s best reliever, spent nearly a month on the DL while lefty specialist Jake Diekman has still yet to make his season debut.
Martin Perez
Martin Perez is still only 26-years-old. Hard to believe considering he made his debut nearly five years ago as a 21-year-old. While it’s still far too early to give up on the one time top prospect, his development has been, well, nonexistent.
His current 4.60 ERA is on pace to be the highest since he debuted in 2012 when he only pitched 38 innings.
Perez’s 6.5 strikeouts per nine are the highest of his career but so is his 3.7 walks per nine. In fact, his 1.78 strikeouts per walk are the seventh lowest in all of baseball.
The days of hoping Martin Perez will turn into a top of the rotation starter are long gone. But there’s still hope that he can turn into a solid middle of the rotation guy.
Rougned Odor
After hitting 33 home runs a season ago, Rougned Odor had a chance to solidify himself as one of the game’s best second baseman’s heading into 2017. So far he has yet to do that, in fact, he’s done the complete opposite.
His 0.2 WAR ranks dead last among American League second baseman as does his .220 average, 69 wRC+, 24 percent strikeout rate and -9.5 offensive rating.
Hopefully, Odor’s hot July is a sign of things to come for the remainder of the season.
His 0.6 WAR during the month is the third highest among second baseman, his .481 ISO is second, and his four home runs are the most.
So far 2017 has been disappointing for Odor, but there’s still plenty of time for him to salvage the season.
Jurickson Profar disappointing
Heading into the season left field was the biggest question mark surrounding the lineup. But with Delino DeShields, Jurickson Profar and Ryan Rua locked in a position battle it seemed as though the position was in safe hands.
After being one of the best players at the World Baseball Classic, the position seemed like Profar’s to lose. Which he promptly did. His 22 game stint with the big league club makes it his third longest stint in the bigs, and it’s been arguably his worst.
His 41 wRC+, .172 batting average, and .034 ISO rating are all the worst of his career by a fair amount.
Is it possible Profar just can’t put it together against Major League competition? In 206 career games, he’s produced -0.6 WAR. But he’s shown more than enough during his brief flashes of greatness to prove he has more than enough to succeed at the next level.
Perhaps Profar is one of those guys never able to put it together; maybe he needs a change of scenery.
Either way, it’s growing more and more unlikely that the Rangers ever see the full potential that once landed him as the best prospect in all of baseball.
The Ugly
The Jonathan Lucroy trade
The Rangers have made some questionable trades over the past several seasons. Trading a future Cy Young finalist to the Cubs for Ryan Dempster? Check. Dealing Chris Davis to the Orioles for Koji Uehara? Yeah. Or what about trading one of the game’s elite second baseman for now retired Prince Fielder?
Unfortunately, the Jonathan Lucroy deal appears to be fast approaching the same level as the rest of these monstrosities.
A season ago an argument was to be made that Lucroy was the best catcher in all of baseball. His offensive rating was nearly five whole points higher than the second-place Buster Posey. All while providing good defense.
It’s as if Lucroy woke up on Opening Day and completely forgot how to play baseball.
He’s in danger of setting career lows in home runs, batting average, wRC+, and WAR. His offensive rating is currently 24 points lower than it was a season ago.
It’s not just his offense that’s taken a nose dive. Baseball Prospectus had Lucroy as the seventh best defensive catcher last season. This year he’s ranked dead last.
Something is wrong with Jonathan Lucroy. Meanwhile, Lewis Brinson has torched Triple-A pitching this season, fast tracking his path to the majors.
With Lucroy set to be a free agent at the end of the season, I’m willing to bet my life the Rangers don’t get half the return the Brewers got for him just a year ago.
Sam Dyson and the bullpen
Part of me feels it’s time to stop beating a dead horse. Another part of me believes it’s impossible to overstate just how bad Sam Dyson was this season. And yet another part of me feels that ‘Sam Dyson and the bullpen’ sounds like a heartland band from the 70’s.
It’s not even an exaggeration to suggest that Dyson was on his way to one of the worst seasons of all time. He had a -2.61 win probability added just a couple of weeks into the season, already good for the 42nd worst of all time.
Of course, the Rangers and Dyson would go on to part ways, and the bullpen would go on to dominate. Except it didn’t.
The team continues to house the bullpen with the sixth highest ERA and the most blown saves. The teams’ inability to find consistency at the back-end of the bullpen continues.
With the three most expensive relief contracts of all time all coming within the past season, it’s hard to imagine the Rangers breaking the bank anytime soon for relief help.
Of course, Sam Dyson is doing great in San Fransisco
If you didn’t see this one coming, I suggest you watch more Rangers baseball. A struggling player gets let go just to find success elsewhere.
Since joining the Giants, Dyson has a 2.92 ERA in 12.1 innings converting all three of his save attempts.
He’s struck out 12 batters, five more than his time with the Rangers in four fewer innings. He also has given up 1/5th of the earned runs.
Mike Napoli’s awful, Mitch Moreland is good
I couldn’t help but scratch my head when I saw the Rangers gave Mike Napoli $6 million more than the Red Sox gave Mitch Moreland.
Sure, who cares about defense at first base? But the decision to spend more money on one of the worst defenders in baseball in exchange for a minor upgrade at the plate seemed questionable at best.
Well, that would be if it was an upgrade at the plate, which it hasn’t been. Moreland has set himself up to set a career high in WAR while well on his way to another Gold Glove.
Meanwhile, Mike Napoli is the only qualified player in baseball with a negative WAR.
Hindsight is 20/20 though. I’ll admit, I bought into the ‘Party at Napoli’s’ hype.
Cole Hamels mustache
Cole Hamels has battled injury this season, but when he’s on the field he’s been good. The problem isn’t his play. It’s that god-awful mustache.
Hamels’ headed into the season sporting a beard that would make Brian Wilson jealous. He opted to ditch the beard upon returning from the disabled list in favor of a Borat-style mustache.
Perhaps I’m bitter because of my jealousy towards Hamels’ ability to grow a beard. After all, as a man who grows a patchy beard at best, who am I to judge?
But let’s not forget the last time the Rangers had a left-handed starter who sported a creepy mustache. Yikes.