Texas Rangers: One bold prediction for every position player

It’s time for the 2019 version of Texas Rangers bold predictions. Here’s one for each member of the offense, starters and bench players.

Spring season means prediction season. As Texas Rangers players get back into a rhythm, we start to form opinions and ideas as to how the regular season will play out. A lot can happen over a 162-game span. A stellar season can be disrupted by injury, a slump can last too long to bear, and a player can be traded to another team.

The uncertainties make predicting outcomes extremely difficult, but also quite fun, and very rewarding if one happens to be accurate. You’ll agree with some and you’ll find some outlandish.

Let’s start prediction season by focusing on the Ranger offense. Here’s a bold prediction for every offensive starter and a few potential bench players:

Choo finishes the season with the Rangers

Is this the year the Texas Rangers finally trade Shin-Soo Choo? I don’t think so.

He’s due $21 million this year and next year before becoming a free agent in 2021. That’s a lot of money. Too much money for any MLB team to take on for an aging DH.

If Texas is to move Choo, they would have to eat most, if not all of his remaining contract. In addition, they would need another solid year from him to engage any reasonable trade interest.

The way I see it… if they couldn’t move him prior to last year’s trade deadline, when he was hitting close to .300 with a remarkable .405 OBP and 18 home runs, they’ll never be able to move him.

The Rangers would have to be absolutely desperate, willing to trade him for next to nothing and willing to eat 100% of his contract. Otherwise, he’ll remain a Ranger.

That wouldn’t be such a bad thing. Choo is still a productive hitter. It’s not like Texas is playing him just because he’s a high dollar player. They’re playing him because he’s one of the top nine hitters on the team, and, to this point, no one has posed a real threat to his role.

Guzman finishes top three on the team in home runs

Ronald Guzman has had the power stroke going this spring. He’s tied for the team lead with three home runs. He also knocked 16 homers over 387 at-bats in his rookie season.

Barring injury or a drawn out slump, Guzman should get 500 at-bats this year. The combination of his strength, line drive swing and a short porch in right field should lead to the big lefty clearing the fence quite frequently. Perhaps to the tune of 25+ home runs.

His competition? Let’s hope Joey Gallo out-home runs him. Gallo has set the bar really high; anything less than 40 from him would be a surprise. Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara and Asdrubal Cabrera will be Guzman’s direct competition for the non-Joey Gallo team home run title. 20+ home runs from each is what the Rangers will be looking for.

Guzman likely won’t get as many ABs as the other three lefties, but that doesn’t mean he can’t hit more home runs.

Odor leads AL second baseman in home runs

Back to Odor, it’d be nice if he could regain his power stroke in 2019. He showed vast improvement at the plate last year; however, his power took a big hit. He went from hitting 30 home runs in 2017 to just 18 in 2018.

Odor is among those tied with Guzman with three home runs this spring. He is continuing the approach of honing in on a specific part of the strike zone to do damage. If he can carry his patience over from last season and start launching those pitches that enter his predetermined zone, he could be set for rejuvenated HR totals.

He’s always had the bat speed and he’s always been able to cover the width of the plate. It’s all about laying off the bad pitches and driving the good ones. That’s the goal for every hitter, but Odor has long been an extreme case, at least until June of 2018.

He is surely capable of leading AL second basemen in homers. His 33 long balls ranked third among AL second basemen in 2016. Brian Dozier hit 40 that year and Robinson Cano hit 38. Both players are now in the National League. Jose Altuve and Gleyber Torres will be his biggest competition throughout the upcoming campaign.

Cabrera will finish top two on the team in doubles

The Texas Rangers got themselves a good hitter in Asdrubal Cabrera. He puts the ball in play, barrels the ball from both sides of the plate and hits to all thirds of the field. The result is a lot of doubles.

Cabrera hit 36 two-baggers between the Mets and Phillies in 2018. He’s hit at least 30 doubles in each of the past three seasons and has averaged 29 per season over his 12-year career.

Expect many from him this year, perhaps the most on the team. Elvis Andrus will have something to say about it, as could Isiah Kiner-Falefa if he steps to the plate often enough. Notice I predicted a top two finish for the team lead in doubles. I would have no problem if he and Andrus pepper the alleys and make for an entertaining competition for the top spot.

Andrus hits over .310

Speaking of Elvis, how about I set the bar at .310 for his 2019 batting average? He’s never hit that mark in his career, but he’s come close. The 30-year-old has a flat swing path and a simple plate approach. His goal is not too hit the ball as far as possible, but as hard as possible, whether it be to left field, center field, or right field.

He is leading the way this spring, posting a .522 batting average in 23 at-bats. Spring success doesn’t necessarily translate to regular season success, but we at least know Andrus is seeing the ball very well as he nears the games that count.

He should be able to swing freely in 2019. He’ll likely be protected by Mazara and Gallo in the lineup. Also, Andrus won’t have a ton of pressure to produce. This year is more about young guys taking a step forward than it is the proven shortstop putting up big numbers.

Andrus will take it upon himself to greatly contribute on offense and defense, though all eyes will not be on him this season. .310 is the mark.

Gallo eclipses 110-RBI mark for first time

There are plenty of bold predictions to think up for Joey Gallo. 50 home runs, 215 strikeouts, longest homer, highest homer, fastest homer… the man is an anomaly with a bat in his hands.

I’d like to see the slugger eclipse 110 RBI in 2019. If he does that, he will have had a successful year.

He came somewhat close last year. He drove in 92 runs after having driven in 80 the year before. Thus, Gallo is on direction. A player who hits as many home runs as he does should notch at least 100 RBI every season.

The two players that hit more homers than him last year each drove in over 100 runs. Khris Davis hit 48 long balls and finished the year with 123 RBI. J.D. Martinez hit 43 and drove in 130. 14 players hit fewer home runs than Gallo but notched at least 100 RBI in 2018.

It’s time he elevates his RBI game. He’ll need his teammates to reach base, though that shouldn’t be a problem with Choo, Andrus and Mazara presumably hitting ahead of him in the lineup. Gallo needs to fixate himself in the top half of the batting order and fire away.

He’ll drive in 100 this year, maybe even 110 or 120. He’s certainly capable.

DeShields loses CF nod by June

If Delino DeShields plays well, he’s the center fielder for the entire year. He controls is own destiny, but will he perform?

This season is not like past seasons for DeShields. He finally has some heat on him, as there are multiple ways center field can be pulled from underneath him.

Gallo has proved he can slide over from left field and play a solid CF. Carlos Tocci had an encouraging spring before being optioned to Triple-A. He’s certainly eager to return to the big league club at some point this year. And of course Hunter Pence and Willie Calhoun can force some outfield reordering if either play at a high level with the Rangers.

But, again, center field is DeShields’ to lose. Like many other Rangers, he’s had a nice spring. He’s hitting .324 with a .395 OBP and four stolen bases. He’s definitely the glove that Texas wants roaming center field, but it comes down to his bat.

DeShields must reach base at a high clip. That’s all he really must do to keep his job. He did not do that last year, as he finished the year with a .310 OBP, a number that is simply too low for a speed guy.

Somehow, circumstances will dictate DeShields losing his role as starting center fielder. My gut tells me Joey Gallo takes over as early as June.

Mazara makes the All-Star team

Nomar Mazara is entering his fourth full season as a big leaguer. He’s played well each year; however, he hasn’t taken the leap that many hoped he would by now. When I say leap, I mean a transition from solid MLB player to All-Star MLB player.

The Texas Rangers need an All-Star or two to emerge from their team. Their lone representative in last year’s ASG was 35-year-old Shin-Soo Choo. Sadly, no member of the Rangers was mentioned in MLB Network’s top 100 players entering 2019, which does not bode well for All-Star predictions.

That’s not good. If they really want to come out of this rebuild on top, they’ll need a superstar position player. Gallo and Odor show promise, but Mazara is the Ranger with the highest offensive ceiling. He has the talent to hit for a good average, pop 30 homers and command a lineup.

2019 will be the year of Nomar Mazara. He stays healthy and puts together an All-Star season.

Calhoun is dealt

Same story, different year… Willie Calhoun has his back to the wall trying to make the Texas Rangers opening day roster. As the outfield is playing out, it seems he’ll miss the cut and be sent to Triple-A Nashville.

Two things: He’s not showing signs of being an impact player at the major league level, and the Rangers don’t have room for him. They can execute their due diligence once again by promoting him in lieu of injury or as part of September call-ups, but what is that really doing for either party?

If Texas can’t play him, trade him. Outfielders that are more highly regarded are on their way up from the minors; a couple should reach the majors over the next couple of seasons. Thus, the window of opportunity will not get any larger for Calhoun.

He’s not the type of player that will headline a deal (although he was the headliner in the package that came to Texas from L.A.), but he could surely sweeten a deal.

Let’s say the Rangers have trade interest in Mike Minor come July. Adding a young, promising bat with plenty of success in the minor leagues could intrigue a number of teams and warrant a bigger trade return. The Rangers could swap a 31-year-old pitcher (Minor), along with a covered up talent  (Calhoun), for a player or two that can directly impact the rebuild.

IKF makes the All-Star team

This seems crazy at first, but hear me out. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a really nice player. He’s rapidly improving behind the plate and he’s a very reliable hitter. It would not be surprising if he hit .290 in the upcoming campaign.

Sure IKF is a nice player, but is he really All-Star worthy? After all, he’s entering his second season and taking on a whole new defensive challenge.

His stats may not blow people away, and they won’t match those of a typical All-Star representative, but look at his catching competition around the AL.

With Salvador Perez out for the year, there is no clear catcing favorite to make the All-Star team. The backstops that stand out are Gary Sanchez (Yankees), Mike Zunino (Rays), Jonathan Lucroy (Angels) and Welington Castillo (White Sox). Three catchers made the American League All-Star team last year. You’re telling me Kiner-Falefa can’t put forth better numbers than two of the four catchers I just mentioned?

Castillo hit .259 with 6 home runs in 49 games in 2018. Zunino hit .201 with 20 homers last year, Sanchez .186 and 16, and Lucroy .241 and 4. There are of course more than two stats that go into an All-Star selection, but you at least get a feel for the type of seasons those players had.

IKF has a fighting chance. The key will be getting enough starts and ABs behind the plate.

50/50 catching split changes to 70/30

The Texas Rangers have noted their intention to have Jeff Mathis and Isiah Kiner-Falefa split catching responsibilities. I don’t expect that intention to hold true from April to September.

To use an NFL analogy, Mathis to Kiner-Falefa is Josh McCown to Sam Darnold. McCown stood as the New York Jets’ backup QB in 2018-19 to essentially teach Darnold how to play quarterback at the NFL level. Mathis is here to help IKF figure out the catching position at the MLB level.

Mathis will play some, deservedly so. He knows how to command a pitching staff and he’s a great catcher. The Rangers need a player like him around. He’ll likely start behind the plate about half the time over the first couple of months, but expect Kiner-Falefa’s opportunities to increase as the season lengthens.

The many weeks in which Texas plays six games, Kiner-Falefa may catch four and Mathis two. Youth needs to play, and IKF is 12 years younger than Jeff Mathis. IKF will also be a part of the Rangers for way longer.