Texas Rangers bold predictions: One from each member of our staff

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With the regular season just around the corner, each member of the Nolan Writin’ staff has made one bold prediction for the Texas Rangers in 2019.

The countdown is nearly expired. We’re now one day away from watching the Texas Rangers jog out to their positions to begin the final season at Globe Life Park. The team is certainly on the outside looking in at the top teams in the American League West division. But they’re 0-0 at the moment, meaning they have at least 162 games to determine their fate.

There will be bright spots throughout the season. Hopefully the squad as a whole is a bright spot, but you can guarantee a few impressive campaigns from a few Texas players.

The Nolan Writin’ staff has put together a piece full of bold predictions, some player focused and some team focused. The predictions aren’t wild guesses; however, they could be seen as dramatized or a bit over the top. Who knows, maybe a couple will be spot on. Maybe a couple will be undersold once the seasons is a wrap. We’ll find out soon enough.

Here’s a bold 2019 Texas Rangers prediction from each member of our staff…

Rangers finish top 5 in MLB in home runs

There is not a ton of guaranteed power throughout the Rangers roster this year. However, there is a ton of power potential. You can jot down 40-50 home runs from Joey Gallo before the regular season even starts. When predicting a team to finish in the top five in MLB in homers, it’s nice to have one of the game’s elite power bats leading the way.

Ronald Guzman, Rougned Odor, and Hunter Pence led the team in long balls this spring. That doesn’t mean they’ll hit a bunch during the regular season, but it’s a good sign. Odor has already hit 30+ home runs twice in his first five seasons (2016 & 2017), Pence has 224 career round-trippers, and Guzman launched 16 in only 387 at-bats a year ago.

Those three, along with Nomar Mazara and Asdrubal Cabrera will need to hit their fair share to accomplish the goal. It wouldn’t hurt to get a power resurgence from Elvis Andrus either.

Texas finished 12th in Major League Baseball with 194 home runs in 2018. The Yankees topped the chart with 267; the Blue Jays ranked 5th with 217. The Rangers will hit at least 215 this year, a number that will land them in the top five.

ARLINGTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 03: Joey Gallo #13 of the Texas Rangers hits for an RBI double in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Globe Life Park in Arlington on September 3, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images) /

Joey Gallo hits for a .250 average and 50 home runs

My bold prediction is focused on Joey Gallo, and honestly, I don’t think it’s a far cry of a prediction, rather something that just makes sense. Gallo has hit a combined 81 home runs in his first two full seasons, but batted .209 and .206 over that span as well. He did however post a decent OPS each year, which is a little more telling of his worth.

The raw power he has is among the best in the game. It just makes sense that if he can raise his average 30 or 40 points, even more home runs will result. Many reports coming out of spring training before the injury noted that he was working on bettering his pitch recognition and beating the shift.

I think he has a valid chance at becoming one of, if not the most powerful hitter in the game. All it’s going to take is the continued refining of his non-power related skills. I don’t think a .250 average and 50 home runs is too far out of reach. I think this could be the season he takes the biggest step yet. If he does, look out.

CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 01: Nomar Mazara #30 of the Texas Rangers celebrates in the dugout after hitting a two run home run off Jeff Beliveau #38 of the Cleveland Indians during the seventh inning at Progressive Field on May 1, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images) /

Nomar Mazara is dealt by the trade deadline

This is one that pains me to write and may pain you to read. But I think there’s a decent shot that the Texas Rangers decide to deal young outfielder Nomar Mazara before this year’s trade deadline. I’ve written more than once about the buildup of outfield talent in the Texas Rangers organization, and this year seems the time to start narrowing the field.

With Gallo, DeShields and Mazara slotted to start Opening Day, it leaves Carlos Tocci and Willie Calhoun as the odd men out and subsequently puts them in the minors. But Texas has to make a decision on who they want to build around and I think Mazara is the one who finds himself on the outside looking in. While he’s still young, he hasn’t shown much growth in his first few years in the majors at the plate and defensively. He’s not irreplaceable.

Dealing Mazara could help the Rangers net a few talented prospects and allow Willie Calhoun to get more big league playing time in left field. Gallo would move from left to right, which I think is a more natural fit, and Texas can at least have a core nailed down around which they can build the future.

TORONTO, ON – APRIL 27: Ronald Guzman #67 of the Texas Rangers reacts after hitting a double in the eighth inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on April 27, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

Ronald Guzman will be considered for the All-Star team

Ronald Guzman came onto the scene with the Rangers last year and quickly took over the
starting first base job. He ended up playing 123 games. In those games, Guzman hit .235 with 16 home runs. He also showed off his terrific defense, making plays (particularly when he would do the splits) that spread very quickly throughout social media.

We already know that Guzman is a great defender, but the real questions surround his offensive
game. He has the build to be a slugger, and it appeared this spring that he is on his way to reaching his full potential.

Across 41 plate appearances this spring, The Condor has hit .351 with a .390 OBP, while mashing 4 home runs. Obviously, Guzman won’t keep that stat line up throughout the season, but who says he can’t hit .280 with 30 home runs over the next six months? It’s doable for someone with his intangibles; this could be his breakout season.

I think Ronald Guzman will continue his hot hitting to start the season and go into the All-Star
break hitting around .290-.295 with roughly 15 home runs. Deservedly, he’ll be heavily considered as a reserve for the American League All-Star team, and will even be involved in the fan vote for the final player (if he isn’t an outright reserve).

Every team in the league is guaranteed an All-Star, so if Guzman is playing as well as I believe he’s going to, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be one! Regardless of if he makes the All-Star team or not, it’s going to be fun watching his offense take the next step this season.

CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 2: Joey Gallo #13 celebrates with Nomar Mazara #30 of the Texas Rangers after Mazara hit a solo home run during the second inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on May 2, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

The Rangers will be better than you think

That’s right, all you pessimists and Jon Daniels haters, 2019 won’t be as bad as you think. I’m not saying they’re going to compete for the pennant or anything. Far from it. This season is what the Rangers have coined a “development year.” Essentially, they’re in year two of a massive rebuild, so it makes sense to think they’ll be AL West cellar dwellers for another season. But I think things will turn out better than most people think.

Mike Minor is traded by July 31 for at least one top 100 prospect

It is completely reasonable to assume Mike Minor will get dealt sometime this season given he was in some trade demand this past offseason. Also, the Rangers’ likely position in the standings may make way for a trade. The boldness of this prediction is that the Rangers will get a clear top prospect in return for Minor for three key reasons:

1. Minor has a bit of a breakout season

Mike Minor is primed for a bit of a breakout type season as he builds off the success of his last one. As Minor himself put it, he believes he can be an ace. The lefty finished last season with a 3.7 WAR in 157 IP. That’s a higher WAR per IP than James Paxton last year and Paxton’s last two years averaged together. Paxton was traded by the Mariners to the Yankees this past offseason and the Mariners received the Yankees’ top pitching prospect, Justus Sheffield, as part of the return package. Sheffield is currently the #31 prospect in baseball and the Mariners’ top prospect according to mlb.com’s prospect rankings.

2. There will be great demand for starting pitching

One of the effects of the numerous contract extensions over the last couple of weeks for starting pitchers (Sale, Verlander, DeGrom, Snell, etc.) is that it has thinned out the starting pitching free agent market for the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons. There will still be good starters available over the next couple of offseasons barring any additional extensions. Gerrit Cole (’19-’20 free agent) and Madison Bumgarner (’19-’20) will be available, along with Cole Hamels (’19-’20), Rick Porcello (’19-’20), Trevor Bauer (’20-’21), James Paxton (’20-’21), Marcus Stroman (’20-’21), and a few others.

None of these listed except for Stroman are expected to be on the trade block come July. There is a chance Bauer or Bumgarner could be, but it is unlikely. Therefore, the starting pitching trade market could be very thin for teams looking to add on for their playoff push. This could drive up the price for someone like Mike Minor.

3. Pitching Role Flexibility

Mike Minor had incredible success as a Kansas City Royal working out of the pen in 2017. Given his comfortability in a relief role, it is possible a team could acquire Minor knowing he could be in the middle or at the back-end of a great rotation, and move to the pen with ease come the postseason if necessary. This is something a few teams have done with success like the Los Angeles Dodgers (Kenta Maeda, for example) and even the Boston Red Sox last year with Nathan Eovaldi.

Next. Projecting the Rangers' Opening Day Lineup. dark

Look for Mike Minor to have a solid season and for the Texas Rangers to shop him come July. Given the likely factors listed above, my bold prediction is Texas will trade him and get at least one top 100 prospect as part of the package and perhaps even a top 50. Possible landing spots will depend on a team’s position in the playoff race, but fits could include the Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Astros, Twins, Red Sox, Braves, and Phillies.

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