Texas Rangers: Trade, keep, or extend Mike Minor?

Would extending Mike Minor be a high percentage play?

Figure the Texas Rangers’ timeline and they’re still two or three seasons away from their top pitching prospects filtering to the big leagues. It may be longer until those arms are ready to make a real impact.

Left-hander Joe Palumbo (#7 prospect) and right-hander Jonathan Hernandez (#8 prospect) could make their debuts this season. There’s a chance at least one of them cracks the 2020 rotation. Taylor Hearn‘s (#10 prospect) April debut was horrific, and he’s now dealing with an elbow injury. He could be a part of next year’s rotation too if he returns to full strength.

That’s it. Of the current starters, Lance Lynn is the only certainty for next year’s rotation. Minor will be amid trade rumors in due time, Drew Smyly will be a free agent, as will Shelby Miller, and Adrian Sampson is still trying to prove himself worthy of spot.

Point being, having Minor around next year would greatly help the rotation. It would also save Jon Daniels from picking up another arm off the scrap heap.

What about keeping him beyond next year? Perhaps extending his contract through 2022? By that time the Rangers’ prized minor league prospects should have arrived. Minor would be 34 years old. He would be a reliable arm in the in-between seasons, and maybe he could contribute to a legitimate contender come 2022.

It sounds nice, but Texas won’t find an extension necessary. With the primary focus being youth, retaining a veteran for an additional 2-3 seasons isn’t the cards.

Why not revisit the situation next year?

Texas can always delay the situation to next season. As long as Minor stays healthy, his trade value will maintain. He might even become more valuable if he proves his 2019 success was not a fluke.

Again, the Rangers definitely need him. His 2.68 ERA is far and away the lowest on the starting staff. He’s also pitched the most innings of any starter. Imagining what the team would be without him is terrifying.

As those prospects transition to the majors or climb through the minors, next year would be a great one to have Minor holding down the fort. He could protect the younger arms and maybe even instill some wisdom upon them.

He won’t be here next season, however.

Mike Minor will be traded this season

Here are the facts:

• Mike Minor has the 13th lowest starter’s ERA in baseball.
• He’s thrown the 19th most innings, his 1.04 WHIP ranks 16th in MLB and his .207 opponent’s batting average ranks 17th.
• Dominant starting pitchers are the crown of trade season.
• Teams will love his team-friendly contract.

Yes… he’ll be traded away before August.

Just consider the early contenders. The Philadelphia Phillies could definitely use a talented left-handed starting pitcher. Four out of five members of their rotation throw right-handed. The New York Mets could use a southpaw, as could the Washington Nationals. Each of these NL East teams will be looking for a leg up down the stretch.

The Yankees have left-handers’ James Paxton, C.C. Sabathia and J.A. Happ, but they can never be counted out when it comes to stocking their squad for the postseason. It’s unlikely Tampa Bay can give the Texas Rangers a good enough offer; however, their recent interest in Dallas Keuchel tells you what kind of pitcher they’re searching for.

Mike Minor will be in high demand. The Rangers will be in the power chair, which is the perfect position for an organization that is on the backend of a rebuild. They’ll set their price and ship Minor if the price is met. If it’s not, there’s always next year. Sustained success from Minor may very well prompt a team to give up one, maybe two top prospects.