Texas Rangers: Three reasons there is still hope for Rougned Odor

Average Exit Velocity

Taking a look at Odor’s career, his exit velocity on balls put in play has had its ups and downs. Obviously, we’ve seen his struggles, but there is a reason to have hope. In 2019, Odor had the highest exit velocity on fastballs that he has had since 2016. During the 2016 season, his average exit velocity on heaters was 90.6 mph, compared to 2019 where it topped out at 90.2 mph. Well, that’s just fastballs, what about breaking stuff and offspeed pitches? On breaking balls over his career, Odor has consistently increased his exit velocity. In 2019, he finished with an average of 89.7 mph off the bat on breaking pitches, again a career high.

On offspeed pitches, Odor had a drastic dip from the 2017 to 2018 seasons. In 2017, an 86.9 average exit velocity compared to 2018 in which he had an exit velocity of 83.4 mph. That doesn’t seem drastic until you look back on his debut when his average exit velocity was sitting right around 88.4 mph. As far as 2019 is concerned, he brought his average exit velocity on offspeed back up to 87 mph. What does this tell us? It tells us that Odor is beginning to read and barrel up all variations of pitches. He continues to make hard contact, and in my opinion, because of the shift he is being robbed of hits. Now, the shift is not the only thing to blame. Odor needs to be a better all around hitter and use the whole ballpark instead of just the right side. But his improving exit velocity could be a sign that he’s trending in the right direction.

Patience at the Plate

Odor’s presence at the plate is something you don’t see if you just look at the numbers,  but if seen in person, pitchers respect his bat. He has struggled, yes, but at any moment he can take you deep. That comes with seeing pitches and being selective. Looking solely at the numbers, Odor has managed to control that big swing of his considerably better in 2019. A stereotypical bad swinger, Odor managed to lay off high pitches of any variety much better in 2019. His swing percentage at pitches up above the zone averages out to about 29%, with the highest being at 53% right over the heart of the plate above the strike zone. What does this lead to? More walks.

If Odor isn’t tempted by the high pitch, you have to put it in the zone or in the dirt. You know he does damage in the zone, and he tends to like the low ball, so what do you do as a pitcher? Walk him. Odor’s walks have increased over the course of his career, and in 2019 peaked at 52. Now, that’s not great, but it’s an improvement. If he sees pitches and begins to look for pitches to do damage with, he will inevitably hit the ball hard. Hits will fall, but it begins with pitch selection and patience at the plate. Both of which he has improved.

RBI Machine

A stat that many look at is how Rougie responds when runners are on base. If his teammates get on before him, there was a good chance the Rangers would score. In 2019, when Odor hit with the bases loaded, he hit .273 with two home runs and 14 RBI’s. That’s pretty average, right? Well, his production gets better. With men at first and second, he hit .295 and with men on first and third, he hit a whopping .385. That’s impressive. Lastly, if he had Rangers on second and third, Odor hit .667. Albeit, a small sample size, but he knows how to drive in runners. If Rougie can keep that production up and cut down on the swing-and-misses, he can be very potent. While this doesn’t suggest a trend, it is a picture of his ability to generate runs which is important to a club looking for more offensive production.

Continued Hope

Rangers fans, I know patience is running thin with Rougned Odor. He’s had his ups and downs over the last few years, but the Rangers felt like he was a real talent when they signed him long term. The trends he has shown over the last year and a half show very positive signs for a player who seems overwhelmed by the big leagues at times. Chris Woodward has done a good job of getting him information to benefit his career, now it’s just a matter of him putting in the work to get himself there. He’s always been known as a hard worker and has grinded out some lengthy struggles. Now, it’s time to give him the support he needs, and that starts by not giving up on the young second baseman.