Texas Rangers: Comparing free agents Nick Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna

It seems the Texas Rangers are zeroing in on Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna as their top options remaining this offseason. Which one should they choose?

With each passing day, our dreams of Nolan Arenado manning the hot corner for the Texas Rangers in 2020 continues to fade. It looks more and more like the Cardinals sit in the pole position to get a deal done with the Rockies for the elite third baseman. Despite that, the Rangers are not without alternatives. They’ve already brought in some insurance at third base by signing Todd Frazier and they continue to look at impact right-handed bats to add to an improving lineup.

The two names that are most connected with the Rangers right now are Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. Both outfielders. Both right-handed bats. Both players who can make significant contributions to the Texas lineup. Texas has been reported as a finalist for both players with the Rangers battling the Cardinals for Ozuna and among a few options for Castellanos. But if Texas is choosing just one, which should they go with?

Offensive Production

Both Castellanos and Ozuna are known more for what they provide with the bat than they are with the glove. In a Texas lineup that is looking for options on the right side of the plate, both would be welcomed additions and would add some cover for Willie Calhoun and Joey Gallo, who are likely to be the club’s biggest offensive catalysts.

Castellanos has made a name for himself as a consistent hitter posting a career .277 average and .797 OPS and is coming off three straight seasons of 20 homers or more. His 2019 campaign was more of the same production wise with a slash line of .289/.337/.525/.863 in 151 games between the Tigers and the Cubs. What’s even more encouraging is when he was dealt from a rebuild situation in Detroit to one in a postseason race, his numbers improved drastically. In 225 plate appearances for the Cubs, Castellanos hit .321 with 16 homers and a 1.002 OPS, all stellar numbers.

For the Texas Rangers, Castellanos would add some much needed power to the right side of the plate as well as protection for Joey Gallo. He can get on base regularly and would give Texas an impressive middle of the order if he were signed.

Ozuna doesn’t quite produce at the same rate as Castellanos but does have the chance to put up better power numbers. Ozuna hit .243 for the Cardinals in 2019, below his career mark of .273 in seven seasons. His OPS increased though in 2019 to .804, up from .758 in 2018 with St. Louis. Still, he’s struggled to replicate that success in 2017 with Miami that propelled him into near stardom.

While he doesn’t have the eye popping numbers of Castellanos, he still is a hitter that would add needed pop to the Rangers order. He hit 29 homers last season, the second highest mark of his career behind the 37 he hit in his stellar 2017 season. Most impressive though is that he was to improve his walk rate from 6.1% in 2018 to 11.3% last season, a notable improvement.

Edge: Castellanos

Age Profile and Contract Projection

With regards to how the age of these players fits into the Rangers short-term and long-term plans, there isn’t much difference to speak of. Castellanos will be 28 come Opening Day which in baseball terms is right in the heart of his prime. He still will have a number of productive years left so there isn’t the concern of paying for years where he’s not worth his contract due to age. However, Ozuna just turned 29 in November so we’re talking about just over a year age difference between the two. Ozuna could sign a multi-year deal and there shouldn’t be any drop off due to age either.

In terms of contract projections, both are expected to command long-term deals worth significant cash, but neither should come that close to a $20 million per year contract. FanGraphs projected Ozuna getting four years, $70 million ($17.5m per year) and Castellanos getting four years, $56 million ($14m per year). All contract offers have been elevated this offseason is seems so it might take a bit more to get each deal done, but in terms of payroll space, the Rangers have plenty of room to work with if they want to do so.

Ozuna likely will cost more per year because he has the ability to be at least average defensively in left field whereas Castellanos defense negatively impacts his value. If the Rangers feel he can play first base then perhaps that’s some added value but teams still aren’t likely to want to invest long-term in a defensively suspect player.

Edge: Even

Who Am I Signing?

If I have the option and we feel that both players probably are getting deals that are close to value for their productivity, I think Castellanos is the best option for the Texas Rangers. I know it’s weird giving him the edge in defensive fit because Ozuna is a better defender, but the idea of Castellanos playing first is intriguing. He certainly possesses the bat to make it worthwhile if he can put up near average defensive numbers. The idea of shuffling around numerous players to make Ozuna fit just isn’t appealing even if only for one season.

As far as the bat, Castellanos to me has a significant edge and is trending up, not down. If Ozuna was an elite defender, the bat difference wouldn’t be as much of a concern, but considering he’s not much above average, the Rangers are signing a bat here more than a glove. Age-wise they’re almost identical but if the contract negotiations start to creep up in years or money, I’m more inclined to believe Castellanos will age better than Ozuna.

In the end, either player would be a massive upgrade to the Texas Rangers lineup and help make the club more competitive. If Texas can walk away with either one, which I think they will, we’re approaching very successful offseason territory and the club would still maintain flexibility for future significant moves.

Conclusion: Castellanos