Texas Rangers: Would Joc Pederson fit in the 2020 lineup?

After the Angels/Dodgers deal for Joc Pederson fell through, could the Texas Rangers look to bring in the slugger via trade?

The Mookie Betts to the Dodgers trade saga seems to have finally found its conclusion. After plenty of adjustment from the original deal, the Twins, Dodgers and Red Sox were able to formulate a deal they perceived to be beneficial for all sides. The team that got the short end of the stick was the Los Angeles Angels though who originally had a deal in place to acquire Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling from the Dodgers following the completion of the Betts trade. After the updated deal, the Angels-Dodgers agreement fell through presumably leaving Joc Pederson back on the trade block. Many fans wonder if the Texas Rangers could capitalize on the Angels loss and bring in the slugger. The question that has to be asked though in any Pederson hypothetical is whether or not there’s a fit for him in the lineup?

Joc Pederson, on the surface, would be a very welcomed addition to the Texas Rangers lineup starving for consistent production. The slugger is coming off a 3.0 fWAR season in which he hit .249 with an .876 OPS and 36 home runs. Following the 2019 campaign, Pederson now has four seasons of 2.7 fWAR or better in just five full years in the big leagues and has emerged as a budding star at just 27 years old. His $7.75 million salary for 2020 would also be a more than fair price to pay for a player who likely would become the second best bat in the lineup behind Joey Gallo. However, for all the reasons above that make Pederson seem like a stellar hypothetical addition, there are significant questions as to how he would fit on the Rangers as currently constructed. If Texas did make a move for Pederson, what are some of the scenarios that could play out to inject Joc into the lineup.

Move Pederson or Gallo to 1B, the other in RF

Another potential fit would be having either Joc Pederson or Joey Gallo play first base with the other sticking in right field. Gallo has the makings of an elite defender in right field albeit we’ve only seen a small sample size from 2018. Still, in 128 innings Gallo posted a UZR/150 of 35.2 which was the highest mark of all players with 100-plus defensive innings in right field. Among qualifiers, Mookie Betts led the league with a 21.1 rating in over 1000 innings. Pederson doesn’t have much more of a sample size with just 280 innings under his belt and a UZR/150 of 2.3 in his career.

Both have experience at first base as well making this fit at least semi-realistic. Gallo has over 740 career innings at first with a -4.9 UZR/150. However each year he played at the position he improved and there’s reason to believe that despite being away from first since 2018, he could adapt well and become at least an average defender at the position given his athleticism. Pederson’s time at first all came in 2019 and even though it was a small sample size, it wasn’t promising. In 149 innings he was a -41.3 UZR/150 and committed six errors in just 20 games. Maybe with more work at the position he could improve but the defensive drop-off between Guzman and Pederson would be drastic.

This scenario would once again bump Guzman out of the lineup but would leave Danny Santana in center. If the Rangers don’t want Gallo to move back to center this is the next best scenario but the defensive drop-off would be significant as the Rangers best outfielder would likely be Pederson who was slightly above league average in right last year.

Make a Trade to Open Up LF for Pederson

Of all the scenarios, this likely fits the Rangers desires the most in a hypothetical but would also be the toughest to pull off. As of now, Willie Calhoun is expected to be the everyday left fielder for the Texas Rangers in 2020 with expectations that he can become the primary DH for the club once Shin-Soo Choo’s contract ends this winter. While Calhoun’s defense has improved, his value lies in his ability to be an all-around big league hitter, not with his glove. Meanwhile, Joc Pederson’s best position seems to be left field where he’s logged 1200 career innings with a UZR/150 of 10.5 and posted marks in ARM and RngR which measure run value via arm and range.

This scenario would maximize the defensive value of left field with Pederson, right field with Gallo and leave Santana in center, the spot Texas seems content to use him at for the foreseeable future. However, the hardest question isn’t about fit, but rather who gets traded to let this hypothetical fall into place. The Rangers would probably rather deal Choo who is in the final year of his contract and is due $21 million this season. Texas would have to pay down a large portion of that salary to move him but it would allow them to keep onto Calhoun, who has more long-term value. However, Choo has the ability to veto a trade limiting Texas likely to only contenders with whom Choo would want to join. Additionally, Choo is almost exclusively a DH meaning Texas is now limited to contenders in the AL who have a need for a left-handed bat. That list is small.

The Rangers could try to move Calhoun but sending out a player with plenty of team control who continues to get better each year for a player that is likely a one year rental feels like bad business. Calhoun looks on the verge of a breakout and won’t be free agent eligible until 2025. While swapping him for Pederson may make you better next season, it will hinder you in the long-term making that more or less a non-starter for the Rangers.

So can the Rangers make this work?

On paper, yes, the Texas Rangers could trade for Joc Pederson and fit him into the lineup. The question becomes how much are the club willing to commit to a defensive shuffle for the 2020 season? His bat is good enough that if he was in Arlington, it’s worth it to get him in by any means necessary, but to give up assets for him is another story.

Based on the reported deal the Dodgers and Angels had in place, the asking price didn’t seem too high but the Rangers, even with Joc Pederson, would still be on the outside looking in at contenders. With Pederson just a one year rental, giving up prospects of value would make this move a shot in the dark with hopes that something clicks and you can contend. Ideally, the Rangers would be able to move on Shin-Soo Choo in a concurrent deal opening up left field but that is much easier said than done. Texas could benefit from Joc Pederson in 2020, but the lineup and roster gymnastics to get a deal done might be more than a one year rental is worth.