Buy or Sell: How Should the Texas Rangers Approach the Trade Deadline?

The Case for Selling

Of the three scenarios, the case for selling might have the most evidence in its corner, despite not being a fun one from the perspective of many fans. The Rangers, who currently sit 10-13, are now 3.5 games back of a surging Astros squad for the second spot in the AL West and are 1.5 games back of the second AL Wild Card spot. Usually, those distances would feel close enough to cover the gap especially when Texas still has 10 head-to-head games against the Astros on the horizon. The problem is, those games all come after the August 31 trade deadline meaning if Texas could find themselves distantly out of a playoff spot in September but without a chance to purge any valuable trade assets.

Catching the Astros feels unlikely despite all their injury struggles. However the Wild Card is still a very real possibility for Texas who trails the second Wild Card team, Baltimore, by 1.5 games. Essentially Texas is competing against the Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers and Royals for the final Wild Card slot, a race which you would think the Rangers have a decent shot at winning. The concern though is whether or not securing that final Wild Card spot is really a victory in the expanded playoff format. Even if they crack the postseason, Texas still has virtually no shot of making a run at the World Series so a playoff berth is more of a consolation prize than anything.

If that is the mindset, which it is for many fans of the organization, then looking at what the Rangers could do to build for the next few seasons should be considered. Texas has a number of valuable assets who could garner enough in return to reshape the Rangers farm system. Lance Lynn headlines that list as a potential Cy Young candidate with a team-friendly extra year of control. Beyond Lynn, who is already receiving trade interest, though players like Mike Minor, Shin-Soo Choo, Todd Frazier and Danny Santana as well as some of their relief corp could all net them some decent prospect additions.

If the Texas Rangers committed to selling, no player should be off the table. However they could conceivably hang on to a lot of their core while still adding young players who could help almost immediately. The key is, if they are going down this path, they have to be willing to commit fully. No, Joey Gallo is not going anywhere. While Texas can’t afford to label anyone untouchable, it seems hard to believe the front office will let their best chance at a superstar player leave two years prior to free agency eligibility. However, all those names mentioned above, alongside others, should be on the block. Only moving one or two players would just push off contention with another season of mediocrity.

The Case for Buying

Making a case for the Rangers to be buyers at the deadline is harder to develop. Technically, they are in the playoff hunt. But pretending that means something beyond this season is fooling yourself. However, the Texas Rangers’ front office and ownership could view themselves as only a couple of pieces away with plenty of returning talent to justify a push. If they are going to be buyers it certainly cannot be for pricey, rental players. However finding guys on two or three year deals might be in the cards if Texas thinks they can chase contention soon.

Next season the rotation should still be good with Lance Lynn returning as well as Kyle Gibson. Kolby Allard continues to develop and Texas has a stable of other near-MLB lefty pitchers who could compete for spots. They could look to resign Mike Minor and pick up Corey Kluber’s team option this offseason. That group of starters, plus a base group of returning players that is basically everybody in the everyday mix could tempt Texas to trying to add a piece or two in this trade deadline period with eyes on the postseason this year while remaining flexible for higher profile pieces in the offseason.

Adding another star to this group alongside Joey Gallo would greatly improve their stock. Then with players like Nick Solak and Isiah Kiner-Falefa emerging as legitimate building blocks, Texas might feels they’re within striking distance. If they do buy this season, don’t expect them to chase the top names. They don’t have the prospect assets to go after the top players available. But they could try and snag some more role players to add some needed competition to their roster.

A player that I could see Texas pursuing in a buy mindset this year would be New York’s Miguel Andujar. Two years removed from being the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up, Andujar has battled injury and a crowded Yankees roster that has seen his stock drop. The 25-year old was optioned for the second time this season Wednesday and he looks like a near certainty to be in trade talks over the next two weeks. That type of player, who has potential coupled with some notable concerns could peak the Rangers interest as someone who provide that competition now and possibly become a building block in the future.

The Case for Standing Pat

This is the boring one right? No fans like to see their team do almost nothing at the trade deadline. However Texas essentially did that last season making just some minor moves with reliever Chris Martin the only significant departure. But even that deal netted them Kolby Allard who now holds a spot in their 2020 rotation at only 23-years old.

With so much of their roster returning next season, Texas could hold off completely from making any additions of note with hopes of being an active competitor this offseason in the free agent market. If you went this route, you would definitely have a better picture of where you were in regards to contention next season and could still decide to hit the rebuild button this offseason if desired. However, you would also lose out on any return for Mike Minor or Shin-Soo Choo who are both on expiring deals and you lose the urgency from contending teams to add a valuable player to their squad for a postseason push.

Texas for the past couple of seasons seems to have held themselves in the category of just a few pieces and a couple of seasons away from contention. However, that time frame continues to get pushed back with each passing season and at some point the Rangers will have to make a decision one way or the other. Teams that just ride the wave and hold out for a big break rarely get that break.

Buy or Sell…What’s the Verdict?

Frankly, the Rangers time of waiting is running out with significant decisions on the horizon the biggest of which is what to do with Joey Gallo long-term. Texas needs to give him a reason to sign an extension or they need to move him while his value is high and they can net a massive return. It sounds callous for the club’s biggest homegrown star but it’s a position the club has put themselves in.

That need for a decision means they need to be intentional in how they approach the trade deadline this year. Lance Lynn’s value is at an all-time high and honestly, there is not a feasible way for the Rangers to be legitimate contenders next season. Texas banked on holding on to Mike Minor last season in a similar situation and it has backfired a bit. Minor has struggled with to work through the interrupted offseason and his value is a fraction of what it was pre-deadline last year. The Texas Rangers cannot really afford to have a similar situation occur with Lynn.

Beyond Lynn who could net them legitimate franchise shaping prospects, Texas has a number of veterans on expiring deals or players who are at their highest career values who could bring in talent. Mike Minor, despite his sluggish start, is still a commodity on the trade market. His struggles aren’t injury based and he should be able to right the ship at some point this year. Shin-Soo Choo’s tradability increased this year with the shift to a temporary universal DH. With every team using a DH and 16 teams in postseason contention, Choo should have a few suitors to which he would be willing to approve a trade.

Todd Frazier was added on a favorable deal this offseason and is having a great season due in large part to his ability to crush left-handed pitching. His presence, plus ability to play both corner infield spots is valuable especially considering his favorable team option for the 2021 season. Others like Danny Santana and Rafael Montero have team control left making them economical options for the Rangers and other clubs. However from Texas’ perspective, there has to be evaluation on whether their resurgence in 2019 and this season is indicative of their futures or are they likely to regress towards their early career production. If it’s the former, they carry an all-time high value and could be moved for some young players who could help make an impact for Texas in the future.

Verdict: Sell

It’s never fun for a team to admit they are in a rebuild. But it’s time for Texas to take notable steps to reshaping their organization. Their farm system is near the bottom of Major League Baseball in terms of future value meaning adding significant players to help now is unlikely and a risky proposition. What they have done well though is bring in players who had seen their value drop significantly and turn them into legitimate big league contributors. When you do that you either need to win or move them for more assets. Texas isn’t winning. That leaves one option. Losing Lance Lynn would be a blow to the ego as the first real ace the Texas Rangers have had in some time. But the young talent and future contributors a real sell could bring in has the potential to be franchise defining. Texas cannot afford to miss out on that opportunity.