Texas Rangers: This is the perfect starting rotation for 2021
We looked at a perfect lineup for the Texas Rangers in 2021. What would a perfect rotation look like for the team next season?
If there was such a thing as a team-building handbook or a 101 class on how to construct a roster, establishing a strong pitching staff might be towards the top of that book or syllabus.
While the Texas Rangers have the majority of their position player needs filled heading into 2021, the team mostly lacks adequate talent in the pitching department.
Texas got a head start in the search for piecing together a pitching staff by acquiring three young pitchers during the Winter Meetings.
Right-hander Dane Dunning and lefty Avery Weems both came over in the trade that sent Lance Lynn to the Chicago White Sox. In the Rule 5 draft, the Rangers selected former Dodgers farmhand Brett de Geus.
While Dunning and de Geus are both expected to begin 2021 on the Texas Rangers’ Opening Day roster, Weems will be starting the season in the Minor Leagues as he continues his development.
With some in-house options at the Major League level and plenty of pitching free agents to be had, let’s create the optimal Texas Rangers starting rotation for 2021.
Texas Rangers’ 2021 ace: RHP Dane Dunning
Wait, that Dane Dunning? The one Texas just acquired in a deal with the Chicago White Sox for veteran right-hander Lance Lynn?
Yes, that Dane Dunning.
Dunning comes over from the White Sox having already made his big-league debut.
Across seven starts and 34 innings pitched for Chicago in 2020, Dunning went 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA, posting a 113 ERA+ and 3.99 FIP along the way.
Those stats will tell you the young righty’s brief Majors audition was no fluke. Texas appears to have something special in Dunning.
Dunning is currently ranked as the third-best prospect in the Rangers’ system according to MLB Pipeline, but should lose that title early on in 2021 as he becomes ineligible for “rookie” status with more playing time.
All of Dunning’s pitches are also graded above average on the scouting scale of 20-80, with his fastball landing the highest mark at 60.
With both Lance Lynn and Corey Kluber gone, the Rangers generally lack pitchers with “ace” stuff at the moment.
Dane Dunning is precisely the type of player that can step in and give the Rangers quality innings in 2021.
Look for him to do just that as he sits atop the team’s flimsy rotation.
Texas Rangers’ 2021 second starter: RHP Kyle Cody
Admittedly, the Texas Rangers have not hit on many of their homegrown pitching talents in recent years.
Right-hander Kyle Cody could be the one to buck that unlucky trend.
Cody, currently ranked as the Rangers’ 24th-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline, also made his big-league debut in 2020.
In a small sample size of games pitched last season, the big righty looked incredibly encouraging as he made a case to become a rotation mainstay in 2021.
Over eight games pitched (five starts) in 2020, the former University of Kentucky product had a 1.59 ERA, 3.90 FIP and 288 ERA+ in 22.2 innings pitched.
At first glance, those numbers certainly appear to be worthy of a rotation spot going into 2021.
Of course, Cody’s high 1.24 WHIP and 5.2 walks per nine innings rate will both need to come down if he looks to improve upon his brief showing in 2020.
Ultimately, Cody flashed enough of his impressive stuff last season to merit being given a chance to start in 2021.
The Texas Rangers also don’t have many other enticing starting pitching options on the roster, leaving Cody as an obvious candidate.
Texas Rangers’ 2021 third starter: LHP Joe Palumbo
It hasn’t been the smoothest of sailing for this Texas Rangers’ top prospect since making his MLB debut in 2019.
Ranked as the team’s 10th-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline, lefty Joe Palumbo has yet to put everything together at the highest level, posting a 9.18 ERA in 2019 and an 11.57 ERA in 2020.
Of course, Rangers fans should take those stats with a grain of salt, as those were across miniscule sample sizes (just 19 combined innings pitched for Palumbo between 2019 and 2020).
If there’s one aspect of Palumbo’s game that should have the team excited, though, it’s the young southpaw’s devastating curveball.
The inflated pitching numbers from the last two years won’t tell you that Palumbo’s hook has tremendous movement and can become a highly effective weapon if developed properly.
If you don’t believe me, believe the MLB scouts who graded his curveball a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, indicating an above average pitch.
With a weapon like that at Palumbo’s disposal, it’s evident that he has the tools requisite to become a solid middle of the rotation starter for the Texas Rangers.
It’s hopefully just a matter of time before the lanky lefty becomes a fixture for manager Chris Woodward.
Texas Rangers’ 2021 fourth starter: RHP Rick Porcello
This name might surprise a lot of folks, but hear me out.
Right-hander Rick Porcello makes a lot of sense for the Texas Rangers in 2021.
The former AL Cy Young Award winner with the Boston Red Sox in 2016 has struggled mightily since that season, most recently putting up an ugly 5.64 ERA with the New York Mets in 2020.
For context, the 5.64 ERA Porcello posted in 2020 tops that of 2019 Texas Rangers’ free agent signee Jordan Lyles, whose 7.02 ERA was one of the worst figures among qualifying starters in all of baseball.
Even fellow 2019 signee Kyle Gibson posted a hideous 5.35 ERA for Texas in 2020.
And while Gibson and Lyles were both given multi-year contracts, neither of them are exactly the most enticing options for manager Chris Woodward to hand the ball to every fifth day for the Rangers.
Bringing in Rick Porcello could prove to be a smart upside move, as the soon to be 32-year-old profiles as a generally durable hurler who can eat up innings and provide rotation stability.
Additionally, Porcello would only require an inexpensive one year deal, unlike those of Gibson and Lyles, making him an ideal Rangers free agent target.
Porcello would make a solid fourth starter with past pedigree for a non-contending team like Texas who could use some experience in their rotation at a low cost.
Texas Rangers’ 2021 fifth starter: RHP Kyle Gibson
Kyle Gibson isn’t a name many Rangers fans will want to see on a post about an ideal rotation configuration.
But what other choice does Texas have, really?
The veteran right-hander is entering the second year of a three year, $28 million contract, a pretty hefty payroll number for a team currently rebuilding its roster.
That kind of money also correlates with being guaranteed a spot in a starting rotation.
Gibson’s 2020 wasn’t pretty by any means, as his 5.35 ERA, 5.39 FIP and 85 ERA+ across 12 starts and 67.1 innings pitched all represented well below league average statistics for the season.
In a bright spot for Texas in 2020, Gibson did toss a complete game shutout against the Houston Astros.
Unfortunately, that start amounted to being something of an anomaly for the 33-year-old, who otherwise struggled badly in 2020.
In perhaps another bit of silver lining, Gibson was marginally better than teammate Jordan Lyles, who was just downright awful in 2020. The latter doesn’t even deserve a look in the battle for a rotation spot in 2021, quite frankly.
Texas could also turn to a young gun such as Wes Benjamin or Kolby Allard for this rotation spot. However, neither of those names offer up a much better alternative at this point, as Benjamin and Allard’s 2020 seasons were also quite unflattering.
At the very least, however, Benjamin and Allard do offer upside. That’s something Gibson cannot bring to the table at this stage of his career.
Still, Gibson is making decent money off of owners Ray Davis and Bob Simpson. The Texas Rangers may as well get their money’s worth.
The fifth starter’s spot in Arlington could wind up being a total crapshoot for all we know.
For now, though, Kyle Gibson seems to be the most likely candidate for the job.
So here it is, Rangers fans. The perfect starting rotation for 2021 goes as follows:
- RHP Dane Dunning
- RHP Kyle Cody
- LHP Joe Palumbo
- RHP Rick Porcello
- RHP Kyle Gibson