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Texas Rangers: 2021 PECOTA projections not kind to the team

By Seth Carlson

Jun 20, 2017; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of a Texas Rangers baseball hat and Wilson glove during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 20, 2017; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of a Texas Rangers baseball hat and Wilson glove during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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Baseball Prospectus was kind to the Texas Rangers‘ farm system, ranking four of the organization’s prospects on its top-100 prospect list for the 2021 season.

We hope you enjoyed that brief moment of euphoria, because it’s time to come crashing back down to earth with… the latest BP PECOTA projections.

Baseball Prospectus isn’t bullish on the 2021 Texas Rangers.

Yeah, it wouldn’t be outlandish to say Baseball Prospectus hates our favorite team, as the Texas Rangers are projected to finish with a 67.2-94.8 (67-95) record in 2021.

That’s a slim .415 winning percentage, which is slightly better than 2020’s abysmal .366 winning percentage over 60 games (22-38 record), but still putrid enough to find the Rangers stuck in the AL West cellar.

At least PECOTA doesn’t think it’ll be too wide of a gap between the Texas Rangers and fourth place, though, as the projection system doesn’t favor the Seattle Mariners all that much with a 70-92 record in 2021.

For what it’s worth, the hated Houston Astros are projected to win the division at 93-69, followed by Mike Trout’s LA Angels at 86-75 and the defending AL West Champion Oakland Athletics projected to finish in third with an 83-79 record.

Overall, Baseball Prospectus’ famed PECOTA projections only confirm what Texas Rangers fans knew was going to be a harsh reality in 2021: this team isn’t going to be very good.

2021 will serve as a crucial year for the Rangers organization as they look to take stock of a rebuild that they plan to complete by 2023.

On the bright side, this will mean the debut of many exciting young players with high upside in 2021, such as Josh Jung, and the potential break-outs of others like Leody Taveras, Willie Calhoun and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

Unfortunately, this season will also be tough to watch at times, especially as a young core of players attempts to find their footing and establish themselves as part of the future in Arlington.

Only time will tell whether the 2021 PECOTA projections live up to their billing, but the Texas Rangers should set out to prove them wrong, even if the outlook may be dim.

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