Texas Rangers: The emergence of Nathaniel Lowe as a key building block

Texas Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe: Offense

A major factor in Lowe’s emergence in 2021 pertains to the responsibility the organization gave to him. While players around him like Adolis Garcia took up most of the Rangers’ portion of the MLB spotlight, he was quietly submitted as the Rangers cleanup option in 53 games, nearly a third of a full season.

There are a variety of components to dissect from Lowe’s time at the plate in 2021, but let’s begin with what Lowe did well. When Lowe hit the ball, he got on base. In fact, he did it better than any first baseman in the majors, leading with a .339 batting average of balls in play (BABIP). This came as a bit of a surprise to me, but Lowe was actually the Rangers’ leader in batting average with runner(s) in scoring position, finishing 18th in the American League at .305. He ended the year with a slash line of .264/.357/.415, 18 home runs, 72 RBI, and a 113 OPS+. He also finished with a 2.3 offensive WAR.

Lowe’s plate discipline was extremely promising for a first-year full-timer, as he drew 80 walks, which ended up placing him ninth in the American League in base on balls and first for Texas – although Gallo would’ve won that contest by a landslide. Lowe had a 10% K rate on pitches that were called balls low and outside/inside the zone, which is exceptional for a first-year everyday hitter.

If you believe in the numbers behind the sport of baseball, striking out a lot isn’t a detractor for a player if they hit the ball enough. Ray Allen is one of the greatest shooters in NBA history, but he holds the current league record for most missed three-pointers with 4,456. Brett Favre has thrown for more yards in the NFL than all other QBs except for three, but he also holds the career interception record. Point is, you can strike out now. It’s not a death sentence for a batter anymore.

Lowe strikes out – a lot. But fans have to get used to it as Lowe continues to develop as a hitter. He might even strike out more often. Adam Duvall was fanned 174 times in 2021, but he led the NL in RBIs. Shohei Ohtani, everyone’s (justifiably) favorite superstar, struck out 189 times. It’s not how much you strike out, it’s the way in which you do it. Lowe’s tendency to swing and miss often came on pitches that were in the strike zone on the outside, so when he was swing-happy, he had a good read on what was hittable and what wasn’t.

Another area Lowe can improve upon is getting the ball into the air more often. More conditioning and experience will surely reduce this number, but Lowe was 7th in all of baseball with a 54.5 ground ball rate. Whether or not he’ll be the cleanup hitter as often in 2022 heavily relies on how the Rangers construct their roster over the offseason, but it’s safe to say he’ll be floating pretty much anywhere between the third and sixth spots in any given lineup next year.

Lowe was one of baseball’s best opposite-field hitters last year, with nearly a full third of his total hits going oppo.

One huge step he can take as a run producer is to get the ball into the air when runners are on base, and finishing in the top percentage of league hitters in exit velocity is a huge plus side as he continues to improve there.

Texas Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe: Defense

Nathaniel’s swing will continue to get better and develop as he enters his mid-to-late twenties, but his defense leaves a fair amount to be desired.

That’s not to say he was disappointing in any way at the corner in 2021. He finished first in the American League in first basemen putouts, double plays turned, and errors – but I like to chalk that up to him starting 148 games at first, good for second in the American League, and fourth in all of baseball. There’s a lot of potential for him with the glove, but those errors I mentioned are the glaring red flag.

Lowe is lucky enough to have a Gold Glove-winning shortstop in Isiah Kiner Falefa in his infield, and the Rangers are heavily circulated within the daunted “2022 Shortstop Sweepstakes” as names like Correa, Story, and Seager will all be hitting the market this winter. Nick Solak and Andy Ibañez both have shown considerable improvement with their gloves at second base as well, as Solak improved his Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average numbers significantly after a short demotion to Round Rock.

Suffice to say, Lowe is going to be surrounded with infield talent in 2022. He’ll have players at every level that can elevate his defensive game, and it’s hard to have expected much more of him with the responsibility he was given last season. Three of his 11 defensive errors were throwing errors. There’s a lot of wiggle room for a 26-year-old who hasn’t entered his prime yet.

Texas Rangers: Where to go from here for Lowe?

If Nathaniel Lowe is to be the first baseman of the future for the Rangers, and signs are positive that’s the case, then he’s going to have to narrow down a more consistent style of play on both sides of the ball.

As of right now, Lowe’s job is his own to lose at first base. Curtis Terry provided nothing but futility at the plate in 2021, which was very disappointing after he demolished balls at the Triple-A level. Ronald Guzman is arbitration-eligible, and would have to be spoonfed a chance to compete for a job that Lowe solidified this year, so it makes the most sense for the organization to waive him after the World Series ends to get the roster size back down to 40.

Lowe himself becomes arbitration-eligible after the 2023 season, which gives the Rangers two years to scope his growth and see where he’s at when he turns 28. He’ll be at a much more comfortable point in his career, his bat will have developed a little better, and hopefully he will have some more discipline at the corner of the infield.

The Texas Rangers don’t have many bright spots at the moment. That’s part of the rebuild, especially when you lose 100 games – where can you draw positives from? What parts of the rebuild are working, and what are preventing us from doing so? Nathaniel Lowe is a bright spot in that machine. If the Rangers can supply the rest of their lineup with more talent over the short term, Lowe can continue to develop and hopefully solidify himself as the longest-tenured Rangers first baseman in decades.