Texas Rangers: The emergence of Nathaniel Lowe as a key building block

The Texas Rangers have a handful of promising plans for the future, even after a dismal 100+ loss season in 2021.

One of those pieces is first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, who quietly had one of the more respectable breakout seasons in recent memory for the organization in 2021. The Rangers have struggled to find any consistent success at first base for a *really* long time. The last Texas Ranger to start at first base on three or more consecutive Opening Day rosters was Mark Teixiera, who did so from 2004-2007. From Napoli to Fielder to Moreland to Guzmán, it’s been a shuffling door of temporary holdovers at first.

Finally, it feels like Texas has their first baseman of the future. Nathaniel Lowe is probably never going to be an MVP, and he’s probably never going to be the best hitter in the best iteration of the Texas Rangers while he’s here. But for a guy that was an under-the-radar pickup from Tampa Bay prior to the 2021 season, he had one of the more promising breakout seasons of anyone in baseball last year.

Nathaniel Lowe is the first baseman the Texas Rangers have been seeking ever since Mark Teixeira was traded in 2007

It feels like, in a general sense, that the Rangers have a couple of key guys they absolutely should keep as they rebuild over the short term; guys like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who’s established himself as one of the best fielders in the league and continues to get better at the plate, or guys like Adolis Garcia who can play multiple positions in the outfield and bat flip opponents into submission.

I want to get Nate Lowe into those discussions.

I want to get Rangers fans excited about this guy’s future because I think it’s as bright as it could possibly be. I want to take a look at what worked for him, what didn’t work, and what to look forward to in 2022 and beyond as he anchors the infield of a rebuilding franchise.

Texas Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe: Offense

A major factor in Lowe’s emergence in 2021 pertains to the responsibility the organization gave to him. While players around him like Adolis Garcia took up most of the Rangers’ portion of the MLB spotlight, he was quietly submitted as the Rangers cleanup option in 53 games, nearly a third of a full season.

There are a variety of components to dissect from Lowe’s time at the plate in 2021, but let’s begin with what Lowe did well. When Lowe hit the ball, he got on base. In fact, he did it better than any first baseman in the majors, leading with a .339 batting average of balls in play (BABIP). This came as a bit of a surprise to me, but Lowe was actually the Rangers’ leader in batting average with runner(s) in scoring position, finishing 18th in the American League at .305. He ended the year with a slash line of .264/.357/.415, 18 home runs, 72 RBI, and a 113 OPS+. He also finished with a 2.3 offensive WAR.

Lowe’s plate discipline was extremely promising for a first-year full-timer, as he drew 80 walks, which ended up placing him ninth in the American League in base on balls and first for Texas – although Gallo would’ve won that contest by a landslide. Lowe had a 10% K rate on pitches that were called balls low and outside/inside the zone, which is exceptional for a first-year everyday hitter.

If you believe in the numbers behind the sport of baseball, striking out a lot isn’t a detractor for a player if they hit the ball enough. Ray Allen is one of the greatest shooters in NBA history, but he holds the current league record for most missed three-pointers with 4,456. Brett Favre has thrown for more yards in the NFL than all other QBs except for three, but he also holds the career interception record. Point is, you can strike out now. It’s not a death sentence for a batter anymore.

Lowe strikes out – a lot. But fans have to get used to it as Lowe continues to develop as a hitter. He might even strike out more often. Adam Duvall was fanned 174 times in 2021, but he led the NL in RBIs. Shohei Ohtani, everyone’s (justifiably) favorite superstar, struck out 189 times. It’s not how much you strike out, it’s the way in which you do it. Lowe’s tendency to swing and miss often came on pitches that were in the strike zone on the outside, so when he was swing-happy, he had a good read on what was hittable and what wasn’t.

Another area Lowe can improve upon is getting the ball into the air more often. More conditioning and experience will surely reduce this number, but Lowe was 7th in all of baseball with a 54.5 ground ball rate. Whether or not he’ll be the cleanup hitter as often in 2022 heavily relies on how the Rangers construct their roster over the offseason, but it’s safe to say he’ll be floating pretty much anywhere between the third and sixth spots in any given lineup next year.

Lowe was one of baseball’s best opposite-field hitters last year, with nearly a full third of his total hits going oppo.

One huge step he can take as a run producer is to get the ball into the air when runners are on base, and finishing in the top percentage of league hitters in exit velocity is a huge plus side as he continues to improve there.

Texas Rangers’ Nathaniel Lowe: Defense

Nathaniel’s swing will continue to get better and develop as he enters his mid-to-late twenties, but his defense leaves a fair amount to be desired.

That’s not to say he was disappointing in any way at the corner in 2021. He finished first in the American League in first basemen putouts, double plays turned, and errors – but I like to chalk that up to him starting 148 games at first, good for second in the American League, and fourth in all of baseball. There’s a lot of potential for him with the glove, but those errors I mentioned are the glaring red flag.

Lowe is lucky enough to have a Gold Glove-winning shortstop in Isiah Kiner Falefa in his infield, and the Rangers are heavily circulated within the daunted “2022 Shortstop Sweepstakes” as names like Correa, Story, and Seager will all be hitting the market this winter. Nick Solak and Andy Ibañez both have shown considerable improvement with their gloves at second base as well, as Solak improved his Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average numbers significantly after a short demotion to Round Rock.

Suffice to say, Lowe is going to be surrounded with infield talent in 2022. He’ll have players at every level that can elevate his defensive game, and it’s hard to have expected much more of him with the responsibility he was given last season. Three of his 11 defensive errors were throwing errors. There’s a lot of wiggle room for a 26-year-old who hasn’t entered his prime yet.