Finding a Texas Rangers trade for pitching with the Cincinnati Reds

Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray is far from the All-Star caliber pitcher he was with Oakland back in the early 2010s but is still a very serviceable starting pitcher for a team like the Rangers.

In 2022, Gray will be entering his age-32 season, leaving the prime of his career behind and looking towards the next chapter. However, he has pitched fairly well for the Reds over his three seasons in Cincy.

In 2019, Sonny Gray made his second All-Star game in his first year with the Reds. His 2.87 ERA and 205/68 strikeout to walk ratio helped keep fans in the seats, as the Reds finished in fourth place in the NL Central.

Since 2019, Gray has regressed but has been considered a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. In 2020, he pitched to a 3.70 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and 133 ERA+. This past season, Gray saw his ERA sit at 4.19 over 135.1 innings, striking out 155 and walking 50. His ERA+ was 114 and FIP was 3.99.

While the statistics won’t blow your socks off, his advanced metrics might. According to Baseball Savant, Sonny Gray ranked among the league’s best in Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit Percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, Barrel Percentage, Fastball Spin, and Curve Spin.

His ability to prevent hard contact, whether that’s with control or the incredible spin rates he possesses, makes him an intriguing option for the Rangers.

He has a six-pitch mix, featuring the sinker, four-seamer, curveball, slider, cutter, and changeup. He allowed a minuscule .214 average against his sinker in 2021, while putting hitters away with his slider/cutter combo. Opposing batters hit .164 against the slider and .083 against his cutter in 2021.

Sonny Gray is in the middle of a 4 year, $38 million extension he signed with Cincinnati In 2019 and will be owed just over $10 million in 2022. He also has a $12 million team option for the 2023 season. If everything works out, the Texas Rangers would have Gray on a 2-year, $22 million deal, similar to the ones signed by Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, and Kyle Gibson.

But, what might it take to lure Sonny Gray and his contract away from Cincy? Well, an open payroll might help the Rangers in this situation.

Taking on Gray’s contract allows Texas to deal from their mid-level prospects. Trevor Hauver, acquired from the Yankees in the Joey Gallo trade, is a versatile piece that puts together great at-bats. He is the Rangers’ #13 prospect. The left-handed Bradford is a former Baylor Bear that the Rangers took in the 6th round in 2019, and projects as a crafty back-of-the-rotation starter. While Weems, acquired from the White Sox, could easily slot into the Reds bullpen and use his wipeout slider to become a very effective reliever.

Sonny Gray seems like the likeliest to be dealt, but there’s one more righty the Rangers have been in talks about.

Tyler Mahle

Tyler Mahle is the youngest of the three starters and is coming off of the best season of his career in 2021.

Mahle made 33 starts in 2021, posting a 3.75 ERA over 180 innings and striking out 210. He posted an ERA+ of 127 and had a FIP of 3.80 last season.

The 27-year old Mahle isn’t a household name, but has had some decent numbers over the past few seasons. However, looking at his advanced metrics, nothing is particularly incredible about him.

In 2021, Mahle was pretty average in all of the major pitching categories, except Hard Hit Percentage and Strikeout Percentage.

However, while nothing stood out statistically league wide, Mahle was the Reds most consistent starter in 2021. What did stand out about Mahle, though, was that he led his team in strikeouts and was tied for first in a number of other major statistical categories. I’m not quite sure how to read into that, though. Were the Reds just that bad, or did Mahle take a huge step forward?

Considered a three-pitch pitcher, Mahle features a four-seamer, slider and splitter, but only uses the latter 15.8% of the time.

Mahle is also controllable via arbitration through the 2024 season, making around $2.5 million last season and is projected to make around $5.6 million this upcoming season.

Here would be my best offer for Mahle.

I believe Mahle, at best, is a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm, but with a couple years of affordable control, he could turn a corner in Texas.

Getting him out of Great American Ballpark will only help him out, too, as Mahle had better road numbers in 2021.

Final Thoughts

Any of these three starters would bolster a Texas Rangers rotation that desperately needs some help.

While I’m not knocking the talent of guys like Dunning, Hearn and company, having a veteran presence like Sonny Gray or Luis Castillo would only make those young guys better.

It’s not known whether the Rangers would want to pony up the prospects to land a guy like Luis Castillo, or take a gamble on a, for now, one-season wonder like Tyler Mahle.

Which leads me to believe that Sonny Gray would be the most likely to wear red, white and blue next season.

While there are plenty of free agents still available, including Kershaw and Rodon, their price range might force the Rangers out of their markets. And with plenty of minor league depth up the middle, why not try and deal from that area of strength to land another controllable starter.

What direction would you go if you had it your way? The trade market or free agency? The big fish or a budget deal?

Let me know your thoughts and trade proposals on Twitter. You can find us @NolanWritinFS and @PTylerHenderson