Finding a Texas Rangers trade for pitching with the Cincinnati Reds

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The Texas Rangers have been busy on the free agent front, but could look to the Cincinnati Reds to find starting rotation upgrades on the trade front.

Texas has already made significant strides in their rebuild this off-season, all via the free agent market.

While the additions of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien bolster a struggling young offense, the one thing lacking is still in the starting rotation.

Jon Gray is an incredible pickup for the price (four years, $56 million), but the Texas Rangers still need some rotation help.

As it stands right now, the starting rotation consists of Gray, Dane Dunning, and Taylor Hearn. The final two rotation spots are still up in the air but should see some heavy competition this spring between Kolby Allard, Glenn Otto, A.J. Alexy and others.

If the Texas Rangers want to put an exclamation on the offseason, they need to acquire at least one, if not two more starting pitchers.

Texas Rangers desperately need pitching help

While we debated the potential free agent acquisition of two southpaws earlier, we have yet to speak on the potential deals on the trade market.

This leads us to a report out in early December by Jon Morosi, who says the Texas Rangers and Cincinnati Reds have had discussions regarding the three big starters in their rotation: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle.

Sources: #Rangers still working to upgrade their starting rotation after the big signings of Semien and Seager. They've inquired to the #Reds about trading for one of their starting pitchers (Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, or Tyler Mahle). @MLB @MLBNetwork
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 1, 2021

We’ll be taking a look at each of the three, what they bring to the table, their contractual situations, as well as what a potential deal might look like if the Texas Rangers go that direction.

Texas Rangers could turn to the Cincinnati Reds in a trade for pitching help

We’ll start with the ace of the Reds’ staff, right-hander Luis Castillo.

Luis Castillo

Out of the three, Castillo would be the toughest to pry away from the Reds because of his consistent big league success.

Like I mentioned before, Luis Castillo has been the ace of the Reds staff since 2019, when the then 26-year old went 15-8 and appeared in the All-Star game. While Castillo’s best season came in 2019, he still has been consistently successful in the two years following.

In the pandemic-shortened 2020, Castillo went 4-6 with a 3.21 ERA over 12 games started. Over his 70 innings, Castillo allowed 31 runs (25 earned), giving up five home runs, but had an 89/24 strikeout to walk ratio. He ended the season with an above-average ERA+ of 153 and a 2.65 FIP.

He took a step back in 2021, though, posting a 3.98 ERA over 33 starts. In his 187.2 innings pitched, Castillo led the league in walks (75), giving up 19 homers and striking out 192. His ERA+ dropped to 120 and FIP increased to 3.75.

Even with mixed results the last couple of seasons, the talent is still there. Castillo has one of the hardest-breaking sinkers in all of baseball, sitting anywhere between 95-98 miles per hour. He also features a really good changeup, four-seamer, and a slider.

Digging into his advanced metrics, Luis Castillo ranks highly in Fastball Velocity and Barrel Percentage and is above-average in Chase Rate, Whiff Percentage, xERA, xwOBA, and Average Exit Velocity. In 2021, Castillo found himself in the top 7% in the league in Barrel %, meaning he prevented opposing batters from squaring the ball up and getting the ball elevated.

Regarding Castillo’s contract, he is second-year arbitration-eligible, meaning he will have two seasons of control after the 2022 season. He is extremely affordable, as well, which makes him an even more difficult piece to acquire. Last season, Luis Castillo made $4.2 million and is projected to make $7.6 million in 2022 by MLB Trade Rumors.

The Texas Rangers would have their hands full trying to trade for Castillo, but he would be a worthy investment for a team trying to come out of a rebuild.

In this situation, the Cincinnati Reds struggled with organizational depth in 2021, meaning a package of quantity over quality could be had. However, I don’t want to screw the Reds over either, and with great middle infield depth, why not trade from our surplus.

Here’s my proposed trade for Luis Castillo.

I believe this could at least be a starting point with the Reds, assuming they value the improving performances from White, Foscue, and Harris in 2021. Glenn Otto gives them a controllable, major-league-ready starter until 2028, as well as a good prospect haul.

He’s the ace-type pitcher the Rangers could pair with Jon Gray and make a really formidable 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.

Will they bite? Maybe, but let’s talk about a familiar face to the AL West.

Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray is far from the All-Star caliber pitcher he was with Oakland back in the early 2010s but is still a very serviceable starting pitcher for a team like the Rangers.

In 2022, Gray will be entering his age-32 season, leaving the prime of his career behind and looking towards the next chapter. However, he has pitched fairly well for the Reds over his three seasons in Cincy.

In 2019, Sonny Gray made his second All-Star game in his first year with the Reds. His 2.87 ERA and 205/68 strikeout to walk ratio helped keep fans in the seats, as the Reds finished in fourth place in the NL Central.

Since 2019, Gray has regressed but has been considered a solid middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. In 2020, he pitched to a 3.70 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and 133 ERA+. This past season, Gray saw his ERA sit at 4.19 over 135.1 innings, striking out 155 and walking 50. His ERA+ was 114 and FIP was 3.99.

While the statistics won’t blow your socks off, his advanced metrics might. According to Baseball Savant, Sonny Gray ranked among the league’s best in Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit Percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, Barrel Percentage, Fastball Spin, and Curve Spin.

His ability to prevent hard contact, whether that’s with control or the incredible spin rates he possesses, makes him an intriguing option for the Rangers.

He has a six-pitch mix, featuring the sinker, four-seamer, curveball, slider, cutter, and changeup. He allowed a minuscule .214 average against his sinker in 2021, while putting hitters away with his slider/cutter combo. Opposing batters hit .164 against the slider and .083 against his cutter in 2021.

Sonny Gray is in the middle of a 4 year, $38 million extension he signed with Cincinnati In 2019 and will be owed just over $10 million in 2022. He also has a $12 million team option for the 2023 season. If everything works out, the Texas Rangers would have Gray on a 2-year, $22 million deal, similar to the ones signed by Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, and Kyle Gibson.

But, what might it take to lure Sonny Gray and his contract away from Cincy? Well, an open payroll might help the Rangers in this situation.

Taking on Gray’s contract allows Texas to deal from their mid-level prospects. Trevor Hauver, acquired from the Yankees in the Joey Gallo trade, is a versatile piece that puts together great at-bats. He is the Rangers’ #13 prospect. The left-handed Bradford is a former Baylor Bear that the Rangers took in the 6th round in 2019, and projects as a crafty back-of-the-rotation starter. While Weems, acquired from the White Sox, could easily slot into the Reds bullpen and use his wipeout slider to become a very effective reliever.

Sonny Gray seems like the likeliest to be dealt, but there’s one more righty the Rangers have been in talks about.

Tyler Mahle

Tyler Mahle is the youngest of the three starters and is coming off of the best season of his career in 2021.

Mahle made 33 starts in 2021, posting a 3.75 ERA over 180 innings and striking out 210. He posted an ERA+ of 127 and had a FIP of 3.80 last season.

The 27-year old Mahle isn’t a household name, but has had some decent numbers over the past few seasons. However, looking at his advanced metrics, nothing is particularly incredible about him.

In 2021, Mahle was pretty average in all of the major pitching categories, except Hard Hit Percentage and Strikeout Percentage.

However, while nothing stood out statistically league wide, Mahle was the Reds most consistent starter in 2021. What did stand out about Mahle, though, was that he led his team in strikeouts and was tied for first in a number of other major statistical categories. I’m not quite sure how to read into that, though. Were the Reds just that bad, or did Mahle take a huge step forward?

Considered a three-pitch pitcher, Mahle features a four-seamer, slider and splitter, but only uses the latter 15.8% of the time.

Mahle is also controllable via arbitration through the 2024 season, making around $2.5 million last season and is projected to make around $5.6 million this upcoming season.

Here would be my best offer for Mahle.

I believe Mahle, at best, is a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm, but with a couple years of affordable control, he could turn a corner in Texas.

Getting him out of Great American Ballpark will only help him out, too, as Mahle had better road numbers in 2021.

Final Thoughts

Any of these three starters would bolster a Texas Rangers rotation that desperately needs some help.

While I’m not knocking the talent of guys like Dunning, Hearn and company, having a veteran presence like Sonny Gray or Luis Castillo would only make those young guys better.

It’s not known whether the Rangers would want to pony up the prospects to land a guy like Luis Castillo, or take a gamble on a, for now, one-season wonder like Tyler Mahle.

Which leads me to believe that Sonny Gray would be the most likely to wear red, white and blue next season.

While there are plenty of free agents still available, including Kershaw and Rodon, their price range might force the Rangers out of their markets. And with plenty of minor league depth up the middle, why not try and deal from that area of strength to land another controllable starter.

What direction would you go if you had it your way? The trade market or free agency? The big fish or a budget deal?

Next. Jon Gray can be the Rangers' next veteran pitcher success story. dark

Let me know your thoughts and trade proposals on Twitter. You can find us @NolanWritinFS and @PTylerHenderson

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