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Statistical Projections for the 2022 Texas Rangers

By Chris Giles

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 21: Dane Dunning #33 of the Texas Rangers pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 21, 2021 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 21: Dane Dunning #33 of the Texas Rangers pitches during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 21, 2021 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /
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The 2022 Texas Rangers team looks to be improved compared to the team that went 60-102 just one year ago.  The additions of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien helps solidify the infield.  Starting pitcher Jon Gray was added to an inexperienced rotation.  Once the CBA is ironed out, the Rangers will likely add another pitcher to the rotation and someone who can be added to the mix in the outfield.

Just how good can this team be in 2022?  FanGraphs believes that this team can win around 75 games with the roster they currently have.  The addition of a veteran starter and an outfielder could push them to the .500 mark, if not maybe more.  Improvement from the young core could also push them higher.  Can this team win 85-90 games?  Only time will tell but, one thing is certain, this team has the potential to be a fun team to watch in the not-so-distant future.

Based on statistical analysis, here are my calculated statistical possibilities for the current 40-man roster. (all 2021 stats used from baseball-reference.com)

2022 Texas Rangers statistical projections: Starting Pitching

There are numerous possibilities when it comes to the starting rotation.  One thing is certain, the top of the rotation features Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Taylor Hearn.  One spot will likely be filled by a free agent or someone acquired by trade.  For now, I will fill the final rotation spots with Kolby Allard and A.J. Alexy.  Using these predictions, the Rangers will need to find 51 starts from a variety of other sources.  Those could include starts from Spencer Howard and Glenn Otto from the 40-man roster, and Cole Winn and Jake Latz from AAA.

Jon Gray

2021 Stats: 29 starts, 8W-12L, 4.59 ERA

2022 Prediction: 28 starts, 10W-9L, 4.52 ERA

Dane Dunning

2021 Stats: 25 starts, 5W-10L, 4.51 ERA

2022 Prediction: 32 starts, 7W-10L, 4.39 ERA

Taylor Hearn

2021 Stats: 11 starts, 6W-6L, 4.66 ERA

2022 Prediction: 22 starts, 12W-12L, 4.31 ERA

Kolby Allard

2021 Stats: 17 starts, 3W-12L, 5.41 ERA

2022 Prediction: 17 starts, 4W-10L, 5.88 ERA

A.J. Alexy

2021 Stats: 4 Starts, 3W-1L, 4.70 ERA

2022 Prediction: 14 starts, 6W-2L, 3.18 ERA

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