Statistical Projections for the 2022 Texas Rangers

The 2022 Texas Rangers team looks to be improved compared to the team that went 60-102 just one year ago.  The additions of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien helps solidify the infield.  Starting pitcher Jon Gray was added to an inexperienced rotation.  Once the CBA is ironed out, the Rangers will likely add another pitcher to the rotation and someone who can be added to the mix in the outfield.

Just how good can this team be in 2022?  FanGraphs believes that this team can win around 75 games with the roster they currently have.  The addition of a veteran starter and an outfielder could push them to the .500 mark, if not maybe more.  Improvement from the young core could also push them higher.  Can this team win 85-90 games?  Only time will tell but, one thing is certain, this team has the potential to be a fun team to watch in the not-so-distant future.

Based on statistical analysis, here are my calculated statistical possibilities for the current 40-man roster. (all 2021 stats used from baseball-reference.com)

2022 Texas Rangers statistical projections: Starting Pitching

There are numerous possibilities when it comes to the starting rotation.  One thing is certain, the top of the rotation features Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Taylor Hearn.  One spot will likely be filled by a free agent or someone acquired by trade.  For now, I will fill the final rotation spots with Kolby Allard and A.J. Alexy.  Using these predictions, the Rangers will need to find 51 starts from a variety of other sources.  Those could include starts from Spencer Howard and Glenn Otto from the 40-man roster, and Cole Winn and Jake Latz from AAA.

Jon Gray

2021 Stats: 29 starts, 8W-12L, 4.59 ERA

2022 Prediction: 28 starts, 10W-9L, 4.52 ERA

Dane Dunning

2021 Stats: 25 starts, 5W-10L, 4.51 ERA

2022 Prediction: 32 starts, 7W-10L, 4.39 ERA

Taylor Hearn

2021 Stats: 11 starts, 6W-6L, 4.66 ERA

2022 Prediction: 22 starts, 12W-12L, 4.31 ERA

Kolby Allard

2021 Stats: 17 starts, 3W-12L, 5.41 ERA

2022 Prediction: 17 starts, 4W-10L, 5.88 ERA

A.J. Alexy

2021 Stats: 4 Starts, 3W-1L, 4.70 ERA

2022 Prediction: 14 starts, 6W-2L, 3.18 ERA

2022 Texas Rangers statistical projections: Bullpen

The Texas Rangers bullpen is pretty much set.  If there are no injuries out of spring training, the bullpen will likely feature Joe Barlow, Brett Martin, John King, Spencer Patton, Josh Sborz, Dennis Santana, Nick Snyder, and Demarcus Evans.  By mid-season Jonathan Hernandez and Jose Leclerc should both return from arm surgeries that will make this bullpen strong going down the stretch.

Joe Barlow

2021 Stats: 31 Games, 0W-2L, 1.55 ERA, 11 Saves

2022 Prediction: 48 Games, 0W-3L, 2.06 ERA, 18 Saves

Brett Martin

2021 Stats: 66 Games, 4W-4L, 3.18 ERA, 0 Saves

2022 Prediction: 58 Games, 2W-3L, 3.75 ERA, 0 Saves

John King

2021 Stats: 27 Games, 7W-5L, 3.52 ERA, 0 Saves

2022 Prediction: 40 Games, 8W-5L, 3.49 ERA, 0 Saves

Spencer Patton

2021 Stats: 42 Games, 2W-2L, 3.83 ERA 2 Saves

2022 Prediction: 58 Games, 3W-3L, 3.79 ERA, 2 Saves

Josh Sborz

2021 Stats: 63 Games, 4W-3L, 3.97 ERA, 1 Saves

2022 Prediction: 67 Games, 4W-3L, 3.75 ERA, 1 Saves

Dennis Santana

2021 Stats: 55 Games, 2W-4L, 4.28 ERA, 0 Saves

2022 Prediction: 67 Games, 3W-6L, 4.34 ERA, 0 Saves

Nick Snyder

2021 Stats: 4 Games, 0W-0L, 4.91 ERA, 0 Saves

2022 Prediction: 32 Games, 1W-1L, 2.80 ERA, 4 Saves

Demarcus Evans

2021 Stats: 25Games, 0W-2L, 5.13 ERA, 0 Saves

2022 Prediction: 43 Games, 2W-2L, 4.43 ERA, 0 Saves

Jonathan Hernandez

2021 Stats: 60 Day-DL

2022 Prediction: 18 Games, 3W-1L, 3.40 ERA, 0 Saves

Jose Leclerc

2021 Stats: 60 Day-DL

2022 Prediction: 35 Games, 1W-2L, 4.33 ERA, 7 Saves

2022 Texas Rangers statistical projections: Infielders

The infield is almost set for the Rangers.  For now, Nathaniel Lowe will start at 1B.  Sam Huff is also likely to get some playing time at 1B.  Marcus Semien is set as the everyday second baseman.  Corey Seager is also set to be the everyday SS.  Isiah Kiner-Falefa should start at 3B unless rookie Josh Jung forces his way into a starting role.  If Jung makes the Opening Day roster, Kiner-Falefa will either be traded or start in LF.  For now, I have Kiner-Falefa as the starting third baseman on Opening Day.

Nathaniel Lowe

2021 Stats: GP-157, AB-557, R-75, H-147, 2B-24, 3B-3, HR-18, RBI-72, SB-8, AVG-.264

2022 Prediction: GP-157, AB-534, R-74, H-140, 2B-23, 3B-2, HR-20, RBI-70, SB-6, AVG-.260

Marcus Semien

2021 Stats: GP-162, AB-652, R-115, H-173, 2B-39, 3B-2, HR-45, RBI-102, SB-15, AVG-.265

2022 Prediction: GP-162, AB-622, R-92, H-159, 2B-33, 3B-4, HR-25, RBI-77, SB-13, AVG-.256

Corey Seager

2021 Stats: GP-95, AB-353, R-54, H-108, 2B-22, 3B-3, HR-16, RBI-57, SB-1, AVG-.306

2022 Prediction: GP-140, AB-527, R-87, H-153, 2B-39, 3B-3, HR-25, RBI-92, SB-1, AVG-.290

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

2021 Stats: GP-158, AB-635, R-74, H-172, 2B-25, 3B-3, HR-8, RBI-53, SB-20, AVG-.271

2022 Prediction: GP-140, AB-524, R-62, H-140, 2B-20, 3B-3, HR-6, RBI-42, SB-16, AVG-.265

2022 Texas Rangers statistical projections: Catchers

For now, the starting catching job belongs to Jose Trevino.  Trevino will split most games with Jonah Heim.  If he is healthy, Sam Huff may become the #1 catcher by the end of the season.

Jose Trevino

2021 Stats: GP-89, AB-285, R-23, H-68, 2B-14, 3B-0, HR-5, RBI-30, SB-1, AVG-.239

2022 Prediction: GP-78, AB-244, R-25, H-60, 2B-15, 3B-0, HR-4, RBI-27, SB-1, AVG-.246

Jonah Heim

2021 Stats: GP-82, AB-265, R-22, H-52, 2B-13, 3B-0, HR-10, RBI-32, SB-3, AVG-.196

2022 Prediction: GP-71, AB-229, R-19, H-45, 2B-11, 3B-0, HR-8, RBI-27, SB-2, AVG-.197

2022 Texas Rangers statistical projections: Bench

As it stands, the Rangers bench will include whatever catcher doesn’t start on any given day.  It will also most likely include veteran Kole Calhoun who was signed more as a platoon or bench player.  Nick Solak will likely start the season as the utility infielder.  That leaves either Eli White or Leody Taveras as the extra bench player and possible pinch runner.  A lot will depend on any player additions the Rangers make before Opening Day.

Kole Calhoun

2021 Stats: GP-51, AB-166, R-17, H-39, 2B-8, 3B-0, HR-5, RBI-17, SB-1, AVG-.235

2022 Prediction: GP-53, AB-178, R-26, H-41, 2B-9, 3B-0, HR-10, RBI-28, SB-1, AVG-.230

Nick Solak

2021 Stats: GP-127, AB-458, R-57, H-111, 2B-18, 3B-2, HR-11, RBI-49, SB-7, AVG-.242

2022 Prediction: GP-109, AB-392, R-51, H-101, 2B-17, 3B-2, HR-9, RBI-45, SB-8, AVG-.258

Eli White

2021 Stats: GP-64, AB-198, R-26, H-35, 2B-6, 3B-1, HR-6, RBI-15, SB-4, AVG-.177

2022 Prediction: GP-83, AB-246, R-31, H-44, 2B-8, 3B-1, HR-6, RBI-18, SB-5, AVG-.179