The Argument For (And Against) a Juan Soto Trade for the Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers Twitter was sent into a frenzy Sunday afternoon when Jon Heyman of the New York Post and MLB Network decided to drop a nuke, announcing your Texas Rangers as the leading favorites to land Washington Nationals superstar outfielder Juan Soto.

The 23-year-old two-time All-Star reportedly rejected a 15-year, $440 million extension from the Nats’ front office this spring, leading to a jumble of rumors throughout the league that have eyes glued to the trading block: Juan Soto might be getting traded.

Soto has cemented his spot among the league’s great players with, shall we say, a complete jaw-dropper of a resumé. Aside from being one of the most sure-of-himself and enjoyable personalities in the game today, he’s a two-time All-MLB First Teamer, two-time Silver Slugger winner, Home Run Derby Champion, and National League batting champion. He has the second highest on-base percentage in Major League Baseball since 2018, trailing only Mike Trout. He plays on a team on the east coast in a league opposite of Texas, so as I’m sure some readers here are not fully aware of his skillset and production outside of being a household name, I’ll save some of the statistics for the next slide. Needless to say – he’s a stud.

Weighing the pros and cons of a Texas Rangers trade for Juan Soto

Texas wants to be players at the high stakes table. The front office has unilaterally pushed away from a complacency of mediocrity, so regardless of fit – and Juan Soto fits this team like a damn glove – the organization will be pushing hard to acquire him. Make no mistake about it, the Rangers do not have the most enticing package to offer Washington as a primary suitor in these negotiations. However, as there are arguments for and against the trade – both valid in their own right, one thing that cannot be questioned is the Rangers’ push to improve and compete as quickly as possible under the new guidance of sophomore general manager Chris Young.

The Rangers may not be the certifiable frontrunners in the Soto Sweepstakes, but they are, by all accounts, in the mix. Were they to pull it off, it would almost certainly go down as one of the most earth-shattering trades in franchise history – which means there are quite a few factors to discuss.

What Juan Soto Brings to the Texas Rangers

Let’s start with what he does better than anyone. Say it with me, Billy Beane: he gets on base! Juan Soto and walks go together like peanut butter and jelly.

As of the writing of this post (All-Star break), he leads Major League Baseball with 79 walks. Only four of those 79 have been intentional. He has the most walks of any player since his debut in 2018 – almost 50 more than Bryce Harper in second. In this dead ball era, one could argue that simply getting on base is the most effective way to win games through your offense. The Astros, Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers all rank among the top six teams in both walks drawn and winning percentage since 2015. It’s not all about hits – just ask the Rockies, who lead the National League in team hits during that span and have next to zero playoff success to show for it.

Yes, there are outliers to primarily drawing walks as your pièce de résistance, but there’s a reason guys like Bregman, Harper, Trout, Votto, and Freeman rank among the leagues best when it comes to plate discipline. Soto clears that group. The Rangers have walked less than 23 of the 29 other clubs in baseball this year, and when your team batting average floats around .240 like Texas’ does, you could so, so badly behoove from placing a guy like him at the top of your lineup.

Soto’s .968 OPS ranks first in the N.L. since his debut and third in the Majors. If you choose not to pitch to him, he’s going to work his way to first base. If you choose to gamble – and you’ll probably lose by putting anything in his zone – he’s going to accumulate even more bases with the power in his bat. His UZR rating in the outfield has improved significantly since switching from left to right field in 2021. He’s racked up a career 21.0 WAR three months before his 24th birthday. He swings at less than 22% of pitches outside of his strike zone, ranking among the leagues’ best.

All of these numbers add up to one phenomenal baseball player. You could make the argument Soto would instantly become the best Texas Ranger (at the time of their tenure, anyway) since Hamilton or Beltre. Wins Above Replacement is not just some stat for nerds to fawn over – it matters to show how much value these players bring to winning. Juan Soto is a winning baseball player, and he will bring that winning formula to the Texas Rangers.

The Risk – For Both Juan Soto and the Texas Rangers

The most obvious hesitance towards a Soto-to-Texas deal is that it requires a steep investment. So steep, in fact, that the Texas Rangers would have to dig into one of their healthiest farm systems in decades. Chris Young and Jon Daniels’ partnership as the forefront of Rangers management these last 18 months has been nothing short of an outstanding success.

Despite last year’s hellish tank and a team so close, right on the cusp of contention this season, the moves being made are propelling the team into a new chapter, filled with hope and ambition. Feelings we haven’t had in Arlington towards the long-term future in a *really* long time. Texas has two of the most enticing pitching arms in the country in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, both of whom will be pitching in the Majors in less than two full seasons.

They have turned Leody Taveras into not only a serviceable, but confident and productive MLB hitter. They hauled in Josh Smith and Ezequiel Duran, who have both shown flashes of brilliance in their 2022 Rangers debuts, from a Joey Gallo trade that initially left many fans – including myself – somewhat puzzled. They have an MLB-ready bat in Josh Jung, whenever he completes rehabbing his shoulder injury this fall.

Juan Soto means a couple of those guys have to go. Not all, but some. So where does that leave the team? Rhetorically speaking. Sitting idle and waiting for players to develop and then spending all your money once they all flourish means years of more tanking and depleted interest in a losing team. Rushing guys severely hurts their chances of finding stability in the league.

When Texas signed Semien and Seager in November, it wasn’t a desperation move to try to win instantly. That was a strategic strike to lock up two cornerstones of the lineup for the next five to seven years, at least, as the team starts to churn out some of those prospects.

My thoughts? Juan Soto being paired with Semien and Seager, who have both enjoyed punctual resurgences this summer after hefty paydays, makes this offense one of the most potent in the league on paper. The Texas Rangers want to win. In order to win, bad to average teams need to acquire better players. As good as Juan Soto is at hitting baseballs, he’s probably not going to require a package that requires each and every one of the Rangers high-ceiling prospects.

However, I also believe that when players like Soto become available, there is no asking price too high. The Rangers haven’t won a playoff series since the 2011 ALCS. They haven’t won a playoff game since 2015. They haven’t posted a winning season since 2016. I can’t encourage fans enough to get excited about deals like this.

Even if Soto ends up going to Los Angeles or New York or somewhere with much greener pastures, the fact that the Rangers are in a spot to throw their hat into the ring for players as good as Juan Soto, while at the same time continue to construct a team that cares about producing young, homegrown talent alongside proven veterans, is not something that should be taken for granted.