The Argument For (And Against) a Juan Soto Trade for the Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers Twitter was sent into a frenzy Sunday afternoon when Jon Heyman of the New York Post and MLB Network decided to drop a nuke, announcing your Texas Rangers as the leading favorites to land Washington Nationals superstar outfielder Juan Soto.

The 23-year-old two-time All-Star reportedly rejected a 15-year, $440 million extension from the Nats’ front office this spring, leading to a jumble of rumors throughout the league that have eyes glued to the trading block: Juan Soto might be getting traded.

Soto has cemented his spot among the league’s great players with, shall we say, a complete jaw-dropper of a resumé. Aside from being one of the most sure-of-himself and enjoyable personalities in the game today, he’s a two-time All-MLB First Teamer, two-time Silver Slugger winner, Home Run Derby Champion, and National League batting champion. He has the second highest on-base percentage in Major League Baseball since 2018, trailing only Mike Trout. He plays on a team on the east coast in a league opposite of Texas, so as I’m sure some readers here are not fully aware of his skillset and production outside of being a household name, I’ll save some of the statistics for the next slide. Needless to say – he’s a stud.

Weighing the pros and cons of a Texas Rangers trade for Juan Soto

Texas wants to be players at the high stakes table. The front office has unilaterally pushed away from a complacency of mediocrity, so regardless of fit – and Juan Soto fits this team like a damn glove – the organization will be pushing hard to acquire him. Make no mistake about it, the Rangers do not have the most enticing package to offer Washington as a primary suitor in these negotiations. However, as there are arguments for and against the trade – both valid in their own right, one thing that cannot be questioned is the Rangers’ push to improve and compete as quickly as possible under the new guidance of sophomore general manager Chris Young.

The Rangers may not be the certifiable frontrunners in the Soto Sweepstakes, but they are, by all accounts, in the mix. Were they to pull it off, it would almost certainly go down as one of the most earth-shattering trades in franchise history – which means there are quite a few factors to discuss.

What Juan Soto Brings to the Texas Rangers

Let’s start with what he does better than anyone. Say it with me, Billy Beane: he gets on base! Juan Soto and walks go together like peanut butter and jelly.

As of the writing of this post (All-Star break), he leads Major League Baseball with 79 walks. Only four of those 79 have been intentional. He has the most walks of any player since his debut in 2018 – almost 50 more than Bryce Harper in second. In this dead ball era, one could argue that simply getting on base is the most effective way to win games through your offense. The Astros, Yankees, Cubs, and Dodgers all rank among the top six teams in both walks drawn and winning percentage since 2015. It’s not all about hits – just ask the Rockies, who lead the National League in team hits during that span and have next to zero playoff success to show for it.

Yes, there are outliers to primarily drawing walks as your pièce de résistance, but there’s a reason guys like Bregman, Harper, Trout, Votto, and Freeman rank among the leagues best when it comes to plate discipline. Soto clears that group. The Rangers have walked less than 23 of the 29 other clubs in baseball this year, and when your team batting average floats around .240 like Texas’ does, you could so, so badly behoove from placing a guy like him at the top of your lineup.

Soto’s .968 OPS ranks first in the N.L. since his debut and third in the Majors. If you choose not to pitch to him, he’s going to work his way to first base. If you choose to gamble – and you’ll probably lose by putting anything in his zone – he’s going to accumulate even more bases with the power in his bat. His UZR rating in the outfield has improved significantly since switching from left to right field in 2021. He’s racked up a career 21.0 WAR three months before his 24th birthday. He swings at less than 22% of pitches outside of his strike zone, ranking among the leagues’ best.

All of these numbers add up to one phenomenal baseball player. You could make the argument Soto would instantly become the best Texas Ranger (at the time of their tenure, anyway) since Hamilton or Beltre. Wins Above Replacement is not just some stat for nerds to fawn over – it matters to show how much value these players bring to winning. Juan Soto is a winning baseball player, and he will bring that winning formula to the Texas Rangers.

What the Texas Rangers Bring to the Table

The Texas Rangers are 41-49 as I write this post with the All-Star game on in the background. Liam Hendricks is goofy. And I am sad that Julio Rodriguez has been summoned as the next Certified Rangers Punisher, but at least he’s cheery.

Those 41-49 Rangers probably aren’t making the playoffs this year. There were multiple… shoot, a plethora of opportunities to hit .500 and make a push this year. Texas failed and cooled themselves off at nearly every turn. It’s been an emotional rollercoaster of a year, but they couldn’t be in a better spot to make a move like this when it comes to organizational direction. Soto or no Soto (say that five times fast), the Rangers do not need to throw the kitchen sink with the intention of making a playoff run this fall. The team is not ready yet; they lack three, arguably four reliable rotation pieces for the foreseeable future, they are not fully healthy, and two of their biggest offensive producers early on in Kole Calhoun and Adolis Garcia have become non factors at the plate in July.

What Texas does have is a flurry of left-handed bats in their lineup, including scorching shortstop and permanent fixture of new-era Texas baseball, Corey Seager – such a flurry, in fact, that the team ranks fourth in the Majors in left-handed at-bats. Texas slugs phenomenally well through their lefty hitters, leading the American League in hits, home runs, and runs batted in from that side of the plate. They also rank third in the A.L. in left-handed walks drawn. Soto can only bolster these numbers with his production in the box.

The Rangers also have a glaring need to upgrade at the corner outfield spot. The middle infield is set in stone. Nathaniel Lowe, despite some pitiful defensive numbers, has the bat to hold it down at first for a while. One of Jung/Smith/Duran will corner him opposite. Jonah Heim has emerged as one of the best catchers in baseball. Leody Taveras, brimming with confidence and finally ready to serve at the MLB level, should be your everyday centerfielder going forward. This leaves the corner spots to Adolis Garcia and a rotation of Kole Calhoun and Brad Miller, the latter of whom is having a career-low year at the plate by disastrous measurements. Calhoun turns 35 in October, but he’s shown us some stellar highlights with his glove this year.

I have to imagine a Soto trade inevitably involves moving Garcia, because if he stays, Soto is your guy in right. This requires Adolis to make his second positional change in the outfield in two years.

Just like with Semien and Seager, a Soto acquisition lets the Rangers have long-term stability at one specific position, something they have severely lacked in recent years. If Soto chooses that he would rather commit to making it work out with the team he’s known his entire career so far, that’s a completely fair sentiment, but with the Nationals eating some nasty contracts right now in Steven Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, and many pieces of the championship winning team having already departed, it may be a minute before he gets to provide active value to a team, other than simply showing up, being great, and losing at the behest of his teammates and organization. The Rangers are trending upwards. The Nationals are trending downwards. Juan Soto is a Scott Boras client. Scott Boras and the Rangers are two peas in a pod. Money, money, money.

Lastly, if the Rangers do execute a trade for Soto, they’ll be the ones to extend him, and though I am no insider, I would find it outrageous if any team other than Washington would offer him a contract anywhere near 14-15 years. You never know in this day and age of players negotiating salaries higher than the GDP’s of small countries, especially for a Boras client, but the Rangers could probably work their way down to somewhere around 30+ million a year for 10-12 years.

Soto regressing into an albatross would be a downfall of historic proportions. There is no gamble in a contract like that for a player of his caliber, especially if you have set your team up to compete for championships within the next five years. This is a wonderful situation for the Rangers to be in.