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3 things breaking in Rangers favor in critical series against Twins as Texas hunts AL West crown

There are a few factors that could give Texas an advantage.
ByStephen Parello
Jul 29, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan (41) looks on after completing the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images
Jul 29, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan (41) looks on after completing the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Texas Rangers won't die. Even when we're ready to throw dirt on them, they get bailed out by the Houston Astros and then answer the bell to keep their playoff hopes alive. Now, they travel to the Land of 10,000 Lakes to take on the Minnesota Twins for the final three games of the regular season.

Texas has little margin for error. While the club is tied with the Astros for first place in the AL West, Houston holds the tiebreaker, meaning that the Rangers must win the division outright in order to make the playoffs. The good news is that Minnesota is in a bad way right now, and that could bode well for Texas in handling its end of the bargain to get into the October dance.

The Rangers are well positioned to win the battle of the aces between Jacob deGrom and Joe Ryan in the opener

Normally, Joe Ryan strikes fear in the hearts of opponents. The 30-year-old right-hander has been one of the best pitchers in the American League for the last several years, is consistently floated in trade rumors, and employs a high-strikeout, low-walk approach that's been very effective.

However, Ryan hasn't been that pitcher of late. The Twins' ace missed most of August with a left glute strain and has not been good, posting a 5.54 ERA since returning from the IL on September 7. This isn't just a case of rust, though. For the entirety of the second half, he has a 7.62 ERA, so he was struggling even before he got hurt.

Opposing him tonight will be Jacob deGrom, who has been battling injuries of his own. The 38-year-old has at times looked like his old dominant self from his prime years, and despite his clunker last time out against the Blue Jays, he's posted a 2.95 ERA in September. If there's anyone on the Rangers' roster with the ice water in his veins to step up in a key moment, it's deGrom.

Rangers will benefit from injuries knocking out Byron Buxton and other Twins stars from the series

Byron Buxton was a popular rumored Rangers trade target as the deadline neared. Unfortunately, the Twins started to get hot in the lead-up to August 3, and decided to buy instead of sell, holding on to Buxton in the process. A Gold Glove caliber defender in center, with tremendous pop and some speed on the bases, Buxton is a game-changing player when healthy. That's the key, with him though, and he's been limited to just 92 games this season and just underwent season-ending arthroscopic surgery on his hip.

Buxton isn't the only big bat the Twins will be missing. Outfield Trevor Larnach, owner of a .269/.352/.436 line, is also out for the season with a wrist injury. Meanwhile, top prospect Kaelen Culpepper is also on the shelf with a hamstring issue. Minnesota still has some potent hitters like catcher Ryan Jeffers, but a lot of the teeth in the lineup have been knocked out.

Rangers can take advantage of the Twins being demoralized and leaning into youth

At the trade deadline, the Twins were 48-49, hovering in the same pack that the Rangers existed in as American League playoff hopefuls. They went out and made several trades to bring in veterans in hopes of making a playoff run. Instead, the bottom fell out, and they've gone 27-35 in the second half and have officially been eliminated from playoff contention.

For the veterans who are still active, this has to be a depressing development. On top of that, the Twins have taken the opportunity to get some young guys some run, like top prospect Walker Jenkins. Bored veterans and overwhelmed youngsters do not make for quality baseball, and the Rangers must take advantage.

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