Astros' Hunter Brown struggles should fuel Rangers optimism in AL West chase

There isn't a lot of good baseball being played in the AL West right now - or over the entire 2026 season, for that matter. The Rangers and Astros are both jockeying for the top spot in the division, but neither team looks like it can be competitive if it were to land in the postseason tournament.

For the Astros, a big part of why they can't pull away is because their most talented pitcher, Hunter Brown, is struggling to locate his devastating fastball. His sudden lack of control is keeping the Rangers in the hunt despite playing .500 baseball over the last several weeks - and they should be encouraged that there is no team in the West capable of running away and hiding with the divisional crown.

Hunter Brown's surprising struggles mean the Astros don't really have an ace right now, and the Rangers are taking advantage

Brown, an All-Star who finished 3rd in the Cy Young Award last season, has struggled to find that form as he returns from a Grade 2 right shoulder strain. He was injured before the season started on March 31 and returned to the mound on June 19. He was nearly unhittable in 2025 with a 2.43 ERA and 205 punchouts in 185.1 innings pitched.

This year has been a different story since the extended absence due to the shoulder strain. He still has an ERA in the mid 3's, but he has lost all feel for the strike zone with his four-seam fastball, which now clocks in at around 95 mph instead of 98 at his peak last season. He is still hard to get a hit off of, surrendering just 56 in 74.1 innings, but he has walked 43 batters, elevating his WHIP to an uncharacteristically high 1.33. He has walked 13 over his last four starts.

When he isn't locating his bedrock pitch, he becomes much more hittable, as he is working from behind in the count far more frequently. This obviously gives the hitter an advantage. Brown has now given up 9 earned runs in 22.2 innings during August.

After Brown, the Astros starting staff consists of Peter Lambert, a surprise who pitched in Asia last season, Christian Javier, who is having the worst season of his career by far with an ERA over 6.50, and stopgap relievers-turned-starters Hayden Wesneski and 24-year-old rookie Ethan Pecko at the back end.

This is a rotation that is in turmoil, and without Brown being his usual dominant self and leading the way, the Rangers have started to put together some wins and undoubtedly have the better rotation top-to-bottom. With the emergence of MacKenzie Gore over the last six weeks and Call Quantrill's fantastic last several outings, the back end feels a lot more stable than at any time this season.

Combine Brown's control issues with likely AL MVP Yordan Alvarez and his downturn that has seen his average drop from .330 to .320 with just one homer and seven RBIs in August, and the Astros are not a good baseball team right now.

The time for the Rangers to pounce is now. This AL West race seems to be coming down to whoever can get hot at the right time, and while the Rangers have some serious offensive issues going on right now, that's nothing compared to the question marks in the Astros' rotation, as well as the more existential doubt hanging over Houston in the wake of Dana Brown's dismissal. If Texas can get its act together, the division crown is there for the taking.

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