Brandon Nimmo might have been a second-half Rangers' catalyst, but injury might derail him

Overall, Texas Rangers right fielder Brandon Nimmo is having a solid season, worth 1.2 fWAR with a .262/.333/.420 (111 wRC+) slash line and eight home runs over 82 games as of Sunday's action. However, taking a look at the former Met's underlying metrics reveals he's actually been extremely unlucky this year.

Of all qualified batters entering Friday, Nimmo is the fifth-most "unlucky" hitter in the majors per xwOBA versus actual wOBA with marks of .381 (93rd percentile) and .332, respectively. Nimmo is actually tied for the mark with Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (.337 xwOBA and .288 wOBA). Additionally, the player the Rangers traded to the Mets to get Nimmo, second baseman Marcus Semien, is just two spots behind with a .316 xwOBA and .272 wOBA.

Brandon Nimmo's luck may have been turning around, but a shoulder injury puts him and the Rangers in jeopardy

Taking one look at Nimmo's Baseball Savant page reveals why there's such a drastic difference between his xwOBA and wOBA. The right fielder has an expected batting average of .294 (94th percentile), expected slugging percentage of .527 (94th percentile), average exit velocity of 92.7 mph (93rd percentile), barrel rate of 13% (82nd percentile), and hard-hit rate of 52.8% (95th percentile).

Nimmo has been a solid defensive right fielder this year, per Defensive Runs Saved (2), but Outs Above Average (-2) suggests he's been slightly below average. Regardless, he's at least been serviceable defensively, and his arm strength (85.97 mph, 61st percentile) and sprint speed (28.1 feet per second, 7oth percentile) are other parts of his game that are often overlooked.

The Rangers have finally gotten over the .500 hump and sit in first place in the AL West. Staying there will be the real test. With a 24th-ranked 346 runs, getting consistent offense has been an issue. Nimmo could be the key to unlocking that.

The 33-year-old got off to a sizzling start with a .290/.364/.460 line over the season's first month, but he went through a 196 plate-appearance slump that saw him hit .214 with a .296 OBP and .631 OPS from April 13 through June 4. As we see from the data above, though, the only thing that really changed was Nimmo's luck.

Since June 5, that luck began to change with Nimmo hitting .286/.341/.464. That's still down from what the expected numbers say he should be producing, but it was a welcome change that brought more real-world production to Texas's lineup. The only thing is, his progress might've been derailed.

Nimmo made a spectacular catch to end the game and secure the sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. The win is what moved the Rangers into first place in the division, but it may have come at a brutal cost. In securing that deep fly ball off Alejandro Kirk's bat, Nimmo slammed his shoulder into the wall. He's been diagnosed with a sprained A/C joint that might require an IL stint. Even if he doesn't, it might put a damper on his bringing forth his true performance level.

As surprising as it may sound, Nimmo would have likely been an MVP candidate right now if his expected stats thus far had translated into his actual numbers. The fact that Corey Seager's xwOBA is much higher than his wOBA is another reason to believe the team's offense should improve. Nimmo, along with Seager, may be the key to keeping the Rangers in postseason contention.

Hopefully, the injury doesn't halt Nimmo's momentum. The Rangers are much more dangerous if he can turn his luck around, but that will require his health cooperating. For now, we're in wait-and-see mode regarding what's next for him, and we'll keep you updated as we learn more.

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