Evan Carter's surge is fueling Rangers hope, but it's still too early to believe

As the Rangers continue to tread water at the .500 mark as we head into the second half of the season, there are several things to be happy about. For starters, the Rangers are still hanging around first place in the AL West, and Evan Carter has begun to show signs of life at the plate.

But is it fool's gold? Is the sample size truly large enough to say that the 2023 World Series run hero from small-town Tennessee has officially turned a corner and will revert back to the line-drive hitting machine? Let's take a look at the numbers recently for Carter and forecast whether the team can count on the sweet-swinging outfielder to continue to contribute like they thought he would.

Evan Carter has looked much better at the plate, but can the Rangers trust his hot streak?

Give Carter credit for being a bigger contributor over the last month. He's hitting .281/.395/.500 in July, but it's only been over 39 plate appearances, and he is still a massive liability against left-handed pitching, going 5-41 (.143) with no extra-base hits. It has become clear that Skip Schumaker isn't going to allow Carter to face lefties, instead opting to use Cameron Cauley or Justin Foscue in high-leverage situations.

Somehow, Carter has amassed a 1.8 bWAR despite hitting well below the .200 mark all season. It goes to show how much the Baseball Reference WAR metric factors in defense, stolen bases, and on-base percentage.

As of now, we're not sold on Carter's offensive reinvention. 39 PAs just isn't a large enough sample size to say he's found a groove that he can sustain for the rest of the season. His season slash is still an abysmal .192/.304/.342, and his 88 OPS+ number is well below the league average. He is also having a hard time getting to good fastballs in the top of the zone with a lot of swings-and-misses. Baseball Savant tells the story of just how bad Carter has been this season as a hitter.

Ranger fans are so desperate to see the '23 postseason version of Carter that they will latch onto anything positive to justify keeping him in the lineup. Hopefully, the speedy center fielder can prove us wrong and continue to produce at the dish. It would be huge for the team to get that kind of production against righties with Corey Seager still at least a week away from returning.

Color us skeptical that it will happen, however, as we have seen this type of mini-streak from Carter before, and he still is only a platoon option even when he is hitting well.

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