Explaining where the Rangers stand in AL West and Wild Card races

There are only 30 games left in the regular season, and the Texas Rangers are in a sprint to the finish line to make the playoffs by either winning the AL West outright or claiming one of the three wild-card spots. The Rangers will likely not be one of the top two seeds, as those spots go to the division winners with the two best records. Right now, that would be the Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago White Sox. They would also receive a first-round bye.

The Yankees and Red Sox have pretty much locked up the first two wild-card spots with records of 74-56 and 72-59, respectively. This means that, after someone eventually claims the AL West title, there will be one precious wild-card spot being jockeyed for by four teams that are all within 2 games of qualifying. They include the Rangers, Astros, Guardians, Twins, and Blue Jays. The Mariners are 3 games out and sliding with the Tigers, who are in real trouble, sitting 4.5 games out of the final spot.

If they win the AL West, the Rangers could get as high as the third seed as a divisional winner with the third-best record. Seeds 4-6 go to the three teams that don't win their division but have the three best records in the American League. That is where things get pretty crazy. So, let's take a look at who the Rangers are contending with and where they stand in the playoff picture heading into the final month of the season.

If there are teams that finish with the same record in the wild-card race, they go to a series of tiebreakers to determine who will get the sought-after playoff berths.

The Rangers have been fluctuating between being as high as the #3 seed and as low as the 6th and final seed

As of Tuesday, the Rangers, with a 66-66 record and a 0.5 game advantage over the Houston Astros, would qualify as the #3 seed in the AL playoffs and would face the #6 wild-card team. However, the Astros have clinched the Silver Boot with a head-to-head edge over the Rangers, so should they end up tied at the end of the season, the Astros would get the #3 seed. The Rangers would either fall into one of the three wild-card spots or fall out of the postseason picture completely if three non-division winners finish with better records than them.

Right now, the Rangers have the same record as the Cleveland Guardians. Should the Rangers finish the season without winning the West and tied with the Guardians, they hold the edge, having won the season series 4-2. They are 2 games up on the Toronto Blue Jays and the Minnesota Twins. The Rangers have clinched the head-to-head against the Blue Jays due to their four-game sweep against Toronto from June 25 to June 28. They only play each other three more times.

Against the Twins, they would lose out on the head-to-head as they were swept by Minnesota in a three-game set in mid-June. However, the Rangers play the Twins three more times in Minnesota to end the season, September 25-27. If the Rangers were to sweep that series and the two teams finished 3-3 against each other, they would go to the second tiebreaker, which is a team's intra-divisional record. As of August 25, the Rangers have a 20–26 (.435) intra-division record, and the Minnesota Twins have a 19–18 (.513) intra-division record. Unless that flips by season's end, they would be bumped down by the Twins if the Twins don't win the AL Central.

To be clear, the Rangers are in pretty good shape when it comes to tiebreakers, holding the upper hand against two of their closest pursuers, the Guardians and the Blue Jays. Against the Astros, however, they will have to either beat them for the AL West crown or finish with a better record to be placed ahead of them in the wild-card seeding.

The worst-case scenario is that the Rangers go into dumpster-fire mode over the final month and finish behind everyone and fall completely out of the playoff picture. Right now, ESPN.com gives the Rangers a 48.4% chance to make the playoffs. So, after all that, you're telling us it's essentially a coin toss? Right now, it is. But if the Rangers can find some consistency at the plate to go along with the improved pitching of Jacob deGrom, MacKenzie Gore, and Cal Quantrill, they shouldn't have anything to worry about.

Let the games begin!

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