Here's why Rangers' fans shouldn't give up on Brock Porter just yet

Prospect development can be incredibly frustrating, especially when investing in 18-22 year olds, where there can be many peaks and valleys. The Texas Rangers, in particular, not been the premier example when it comes to developing pitchers, which may explain the puzzling start of Brock Porter's career which has been filled with highs but also incredible lows.

Heralded as a first-round talent prior his draft selection, Porter ended up falling to the Texas Rangers in the fourth round of the 2022 Major League Baseball amateur draft. There was certainly some controversy as to how that came to be, but the consensus was that the Rangers landed a promising up and coming young pitcher who might not sign. His commitment to Clemson was seen as solid, but there were rumors that a number had to be met in order to get Porter to sign.

Picking early in the first round and having no second or third round picks due to the signings of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien due to lose of draft picks because of qualifying offers, the Rangers were in a unique place to take a swing at a high school player they could sway to signing with them.

Another key to the signing was going $2.3 million under slot to sign Kumar Rocker, the team's first round selection that year. This allowed them to meet Porter's asking number of $3.7 million, which was $3.2 million over the slot value of his draft position.

Why has Porter experienced struggles in his first few seasons of professional baseball?

During his age 20 season in 2023, there was a lot of positive momentum for the young prospect. In his 69.1 innings, he racked up 95 strikeouts and only allowed 39 hits. The problems that started showing early and still are true today is the walk numbers. In that same stretch of innings, he walked 42 batters, which is incredibly troubling. While the stuff was there and he continued to miss bats, good stuff can only be good if its close enough to the zone to do damage.

Prospects having command issues is incredibly common during their first pro season. As prospects are projected to do, the walk numbers are expected to fall the next season. This was not the case for Porter, who ended up walking 24 batters in 19.1 innings last year.

There is fan speculation that this was due to "the yips" but I believe there is a different issue here.

High-level high school prospects recently have been coming from Florida, Georgia, California and Texas due to the high-level of talent at the high school level. Michigan, where Porter is from, is not one of the premier states when it comes to high school talent. An upgrade in competition is daunting for anyone drafted, let alone somebody drafted straight out of high school.

Porter himself as cited this as his biggest adjustment to minor league baseball. A talent jump this drastic can bring about confidence issues, leading to problems with command and lack of trust in their pitches.

The gap in talent at the high school level has even impacted players like Mike Trout, causing him to fall in his draft class. The jump in competition and not being accustomed to overpowering guys every night is a big adjustment. The strikeout numbers in 2023 suggested that there were still signs he could overpower the competition but the walks showed there might be timidness to allow himself to do it.

How can Porter bounce back and turn the corner toward a successful 2025 campaign?

The biggest part for any player is learning from failure. I do not expect Porter to duplicate another bad season such as his 2024 campaign. At just 21 years old, there is still plenty of time left for development. The results have not been what anyone wants so far, but a bad stroke of luck health wise certainly hasn't helped. There is not much development to be made while not having the chance to play.

During the offseason, it appears Porter has been working at upping his velocity and refining his offspeed. In a bullpen video released earlier this month, there is flashes of an upper 90's fastball, a slider with great movement at 82 mph, and a changeup at 80 mph.

The velocities on all three are higher than what was tracked during 2024 season. Another continued development is the lack of a curveball, which was a pitch he abandoned last year and has not resurfaced, as of yet.

With these increased velocities that show more of the 2023 version, I project a better performance out of Porter during spring training, and into the 2025 season. With a clean health projection, there is a real chance of Porter either improving from what has been shown or a potential change of role.

There is a lot of history with the Rangers and having high level starting pitcher prospects moving to more of a bullpen role while in the minors and the majors. However, at this point in his career, getting any growth during his career is key right now. I project him as a starter currently but plans can change.

Where he works during spring training will be a key to understanding what to expect for his age 21 season. While not having a invite to spring training with the big league club, we will have to wait for any major development on the arsenal.

While many are selling their stock or just giving up entirely, I for sure will not be. I look forward to Porter showing real signs of development for this season and can't wait to see him hit the ground running.