Jacob deGrom might end up justifying his mammoth Rangers contract after all

Once thought a massive overpay, the Texas Rangers' ROI on Jacob deGrom is looking pretty darn good right now.
Texas Rangers v Athletics
Texas Rangers v Athletics | Thearon W. Henderson/GettyImages

It feels like whenever you write about Texas Rangers ace Jacob deGrom and his future, there needs to be an enormous asterisk by it, or a disclaimer in even smaller print that plainly says "barring injury". Nevertheless, let's go ahead and do just that and take a look at how far the big right-hander has come and what that could portend for his future with the team fresh off his best all-around start in over three years.

In early December of 2022, the Rangers organization put the league on notice when they signed deGrom to a 5 year deal worth $185 million. He was coming off an outstanding six-year stretch with the New York Mets, including two NL Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019 and 82 wins against just 57 losses while boasting an otherworldly 10.91 K per nine innings ratio and sub 1.00 WHIP. Had the Mets had a better lineup during his tenure there, he would have had an even more impressive record and arguably another Cy Young on his mantle.

Unfortunately, he was also recovering from a series of arm injuries that limited him to 38 starts in three years from 2020 to 2022. A late bloomer, the Mets decided against resigning a then 34-year-old deGrom, and the Rangers swooped in with an offer he couldn't refuse.

The organization knew there was a big "caveat emptor" sign in bold letters around his neck, but laid down the gauntlet anyway taking a chance on the talented hurler. He was going to have to prove himself all over again with a new team and a massive salary.

Sure enough, just 30 innings into his debut season with the Rangers, he went on the IL, and it was announced that he would undergo a second season-ending Tommy John surgery to repair his golden right arm. It was a major blow for GM Chris Young and deGrom, who had rehabilitated as well as he could and wanted desperately to give the team a return on the hefty investment.

The Texas Rangers might have the last laugh with Jacob deGrom

So, that brings us to April 2025 and the ace is coming off an electric 6-inning 8 K zero walk shutout performance against the Oakland A's this past week. He looked the best he has in a Ranger uniform.

He was visibly comfortable atop the hill and got into a groove early against a much-improved Athletics lineup. Routinely painting the edges with that hard slider and change-up down in the zone, deGrom was also consistently hitting 98-100 MPH on the gun. When he locates it all, he is as unhittable as any pitcher in MLB history. Watching deGrom deal Tuesday night was a sight to behold and had Young and Ranger fans foaming at the mouth with what could be. If - and that's a gigantic IF - he can stay healthy for the duration of the season.

If(*) deGrom can stay in the rotation, it served as a reminder of just how dominant he can be and could potentially lift this staff into World Series contender status. Of course, the offense is going to have to score more runs moving forward, but assuming the offense starts clicking (even a little bit), combined with a healthy deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Tyler Mahle, the Rangers brass will be more than happy to send that seven-digit direct deposit into his bank account each month.

It's definitely not too late for the ace to return to his Cy Young form, and were he to lead the Rangers rotation to a winning record and make 25 starts and hopefully the postseason, the lost seasons of '23 and '24 would largely be forgotten. Baseball is, and always has been, a "what have you done for me lately" proposition.

In order to give their ace the best chance to do this, don't be surprised to see Bruce Bochy and pitching coach Mike Maddux treat deGrom with kid gloves and limit his pitch count to around 85-90 pitches per regular-season start, regardless of the score or situation.

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