MLB insider's Tyler Stephenson free-agent prediction has Rangers barking up the wrong tree

The Texas Rangers aren't going to make big splashes in free agency the way they did last time there was a looming lockout. This go-around, the club is going to be much more prudent and show some financial restraint. A mid-tier player or two, some bargain-bin signings, and maybe a few trades, and voila, that will be the offseason.

Thinking along those lines, Jim Bowden of The Athletic has linked the Rangers to one of the most attractive middle-class free agents on the market. The former MLB general manager projects Texas potentially coming to terms with catcher Tyler Stephenson, predicting a contract of $16 million over two years.

Stephenson is a fine player. His .241/.323/.404 line in 2026 doesn't tell the whole story. He got off to a slow start over the season's first month, started to right the ship in May, and then really took off in June, hitting .263/.336/.444 with 11 of his 14 homers coming from June 1 onward.

Under the hood, he put together a 90.8 miles-per-hour average exit velocity (80th percentile), 44.1% hard-hit rate (71st percentile), 12.4% barrel rate (82nd percentile), 39.9% launch angle sweet spot percentage (97th percentile), and a 22.3% chase rate (90th percentile). Basically, he doesn't chase outside the zone, often hits balls hard, and frequently does so at good angles. That's a nice recipe for some solid offense out of the catcher spot.

Defensively, Stephenson is a bit of a mixed bag. He's a 97th-percentile pitch blocker, but he's slow out of his crouch and struggles to throw out baserunners. He also is a poor pitch framer, but he's also one of the most aggressive and effective ABS challengers behind the plate.

Tyler Stephenson is a good player, but signing him would be a poor use of the Rangers' resources

All said and done, $8 million per year sounds like a good deal for a player of Stephenson's caliber. The Rangers were linked to catching upgrades like Hunter Goodman and Ryan Jeffers (now also a free agent) at the trade deadline, and it's not as if it's not impossible to upgrade from their current situation.

However, while Danny Jansen was underwhelming overall, hitting .203/.296/.381 on the season, he dealt with injuries. Once he returned from the IL on August 18, he hit .257/.329/.500 down the stretch. Is he really that good? No, but he's also not as bad as he was before he went on the IL. Jansen's also due $8 million in 2027. His trade value is low, and it wouldn't make a ton of sense to pay $16 million between him and Stephenson next year.

Then there's the Logan O'Hoppe of it all. Was demoting O'Hoppe immediately after trading for him a savvy move to steal another year of team control, or was it an indictment of how Texas really feels about him? The former makes a lot more sense. Signing Stephenson with Jansen in tow means O'Hoppe's stuck in Round Rock for another year. While his recent performance doesn't suggest that he should be handed anything, it also doesn't make much sense not to give him an opportunity in spring training to win a job.

Overall, while the Rangers could do better at the catcher position, they have other, bigger needs. Signing Stephenson might make it difficult to add bullpen help, and with the issues there in 2026, plus the potential departures of two reliable arms in Jakob Junis and Tyler Alexander, it would seem that more attention should be paid there as opposed to the catcher position.

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